by VUGrad1314 » March 18th, 2018, 8:22 pm
Generally speaking, the top teams in one tier of conferences can compete with those from the next tier up. It's not entirely inconceivable that the best team in the MVC or the Mountain West can beat the best team in the AAC as happened tonight. One glance at those teams RPIs tells us that. Let's also remember that the MVC's tournament record over the past quarter century is still under .500, despite all if the impressive runs teams have gone on. This underscores how hard it is to win tournament games. That's why teams that can do it consistently get so much respect and get invited to tougher conferences. Anything can happen in a one-off game. Better teams, like Virginia and Wichita State, can be done in by hot shooting. A big reason Houston lost to Michigan--a loss that should surprise no one as the Wolverines won the Big 10 Tournament--was because Rob Gray was just okay and had an inefficient night. Still, that game came down to the last possession. If you simulated Nevada-Cincinnati Houston-Michigan Loyola-Tennessee UMBC-Virginia and Wichita State-Marshall 100 1000 10000 times the majority and in some cases the overwhelming majority of the time, the team from the higher conference with the slightly or significantly better metrics will win, but especially in the case of Loyola-Tennessee Houston-Michigan and Nevada-Cincinnati, the so-called "underdog" is eminently capable of winning the individual matchup. While I understand the desire to get our shots in at Marshall who is a jerk and the portion of the Wichita State fanbase who could have handled their exit from the MVC more gracefully; and while laughing at how hideously wrong those fans' doom and gloom predictions of the MVC's new reality ended up being is tremendous fun, let us not lose sight of what this tournament has taught us as we seek to construct a narrative that does not exist. Wichita State's loss, which was the kind of loss to a great shooter that can happen to any team, and the somewhat early exit of the AAC does not mark the AAC as overrated, just as the way the top of the MWC dominated the top of the MVC does not guarantee victory for Nevada over Loyola. Instead, the two wins by the A10, the runs by Loyola, Nevada, and Gonzaga, and the numerous narrow losses by mid-majors from all over show that there's some pretty darn high-quality basketball and several very strong teams in this tier of basketball that could perhaps warrant a bit more careful attention before simply handing another bid to a mediocre P5 team. That's the takeaway from this year's tournament: leagues like the MVC MWC WCC MAC and CUSA deserve more respect than they've gotten in recent years; and maybe--just maybe--the tournament would be slightly better with the likes of MTSU WKU Boise State and St Mary's involved instead of Oklahoma Texas UCLA and Arizona State. The tournament needs more mids not fewer. Hopefully, the committee gets this message.