Bearvision wrote:BCPanther wrote:If it weren't for bad luck, UNI would have no luck at all.
Seriously, like 5 years at this point.
Always find it fascinating how fans remember only the circumstances that didn't go your way, instead of the ones that do.
You had around a 41% win expectancy in my model against Missouri State and won on the road in fortunate circumstances. Variance goes both ways.
Excluding your non-D1 game, you have a 57.5% Expected Winning Percentage using basic Pythagorean formula (with an exponent of 8). Your actual winning percentage is 52.9%. So, while you are 9-8, you "should" be 10-7.
This bears out when looking at games within a few percentage points expectation as well.
I'll be generous and include Nicholls State in the equation, even though it really was not a close-variance game, where Nicholls led the vast majority of the game and led by 13 with 2:52 remaining in the game. Clearly not a game where winning would be considered within the error bar for a standard game.
I'll even include the Bradley game, which UNI never led in the second half, trailed by as many as 14 in the second half, and UNI's largest lead was four points mid-way through the first half.
UNI never led in the second half against Liberty, and trailed by double figures late in the game. UNI has done a really good job of taking late leads by their opponents and making the final score quite close. Again, the error bars in games you never lead in the second half are different than games where the game is back-and-forth and the opponent hits a late shot to win.
In games like the situation above, UNI is 3-1.
Win over ISUb: UNI never led in the entire second half, trailed by double figures multiple times, and won the game in OT! That is a fortunate variance outcome (I.E. "Luck")
Win over SIU: UNI led practically the entire game, but the game was a one-possession game for majority of last minute. UNI made every FT and won the game by one. I wouldn't call this one luck, but it was certainly a fortunate variance outcome.
Win over MSU: UNI trailed virtually the entirety of the game and had several calls go their way late. This was a fortunate variance game in every way (I.E. "Luck")
Loss @ Valpo: UNI led 65-63 at the 5:44 mark and never led again. Valpo led 72-65 with 1:31 remaining in the game. A fairly large expected win percentage there. My model had UNI as the expected winner based on game characteristics, so this is the one loss you "should" have won in these type of games.
UNI has had some injuries over the past few years, no doubt, but they've had some things go their way this year. UNI has not been unlucky. They've been almost exactly what they should be if you adjust their 3-1 record in high-variance games to the more expected 2-2, and then give them a win for expected wins in points differential, their record comes out to...9-8.
I totally understand where you're coming from but nothing happens in a vacuum.
So the Nicholls game isn't different with Carter and Born available?
The Liberty and Wyoming games (2 point losses) aren't different with Berhow?
The Valpo game isn't different without Green?
The one I'll grant you, without a doubt, is Indiana State. We were able to speed up a depleted roster and make a run.
If luck can be quantified, and KenPom thinks it can, we're 324th in the country and that's after spending most of the season in the 350s. Injuries happen to everyone and it doesn't change the outcomes of games but it's still disheartening as a fan.
