Next Year Predictions

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Re: Next Year Predictions

Postby jsaluki080 » April 16th, 2013, 3:19 am

When we say the Valley is terrible, it has nothing to do with the teams not being good teams. It's that the good teams have no consistency in effort, and thus often underperform relative to potential.

The problem with the Valley is that it will always be good enough to beat you on any given day. But it absolutely refuses to be good enough to get more teams to be good enough to get to the NCAA tournament. It's good enough to screw you, but not good enough to help you (RPI and good wins, NCAA tournament shares from multiple bids, etc.). Losing Creighton won't make the 2-8 teams less capable of beating us on any given night. It just makes it very unlikely that any of those teams will be able to contribute to our NCAA resume or make the tournament themselves and thus benefit us via NCAA share money.

Which is the problem. Gonzaga and Butler have been able to make consistent runs because the majority of their conference stinks, so it's easy to dominate them. Nobody dominates the Valley. Never have, likely never will. But yet those conferences get to have just as many, and often times more, tournament bids than us. Being good and deep doesn't do well when none of the middle players seem to want to get past the "good" level and into the "at-large bid" level.

The other problem we have with the Valley is a lack of direction, and too much emphasis put on reducing travel costs for the poorest members of the league, who spend too large a share of their athletic budgets on FCS football. We wish to be a major program, and that's difficult given the state of the Valley. All too often it seems like the mentality of the Valley is to contract, preferring the safest moves possible rather than anything that would give us an opportunity to increase the prestige of the conference.

And anyone who is saying "Just dominate the Valley and there won't be a problem!" is ignoring the entire history of the Valley. That's not the way this conference works. SIU had the most dominant stretch in Valley play that I can remember in the early 2000s, and they won ONE Arch Madness title in that period, despite FIVE regular season conference titles -- and the one time they won the tournament was the one time over that stretch that they didn't win the regular season title. That's just how this conference works -- again, bloodbath. Luckily they dominated in a period where we were able to consistently get multiple bids to the NCAA tournament ... that hasn't been the case over the last six years.

The Valley isn't terrible in that the teams themselves are bad. There's a lot of good teams in this conference that can beat anyone on any given night. It's that this conference being good does absolutely nothing for us. A good conference should get multiple NCAA tournament bids or at least provide opportunities for good wins to build a resume on ... and the Valley doesn't do this. So we get all of the negatives of being in a good conference, with none of the positives. Either suck so we can dominate you or get better so you can help us, but this weird middle level we're at blows.


I am happy that you remembered SIU dominating from basically 2000 - 2007. I believe they had 6 straight NCAA appearances, and 2 sweet 16 appearances ( :P shameless SIU plug). SIU got a ESPN game day and we (SIU and the MVC) were very close to achieving what you're arguing for. Instead, SIU plummeted and the MVC also got a little weaker going back to a 1 bid league for the next couple of years.

Do you remember the year the MVC was a 4 bid league? It was achievable, thanks largely to the fact that the MVC beat up on each other.

I agree with some points you made and that in recent years, the league beating up on each other has been bad for the top teams but to say this is how the MVC has always been is false. By mentioning that 2000-2006 stretch, you acknowledge that yourself. And before Y2K, ANY non big 6 confrence rarely rarely rarely sent mutiple teams to the NCAA

In conclusion, :P I say all this to give you a new perspective. First, the MVC was one of the first non BCS conferences to send multiple send mutiple teams to the NCAA tournament. Second, going back just a little nudge over a decade, Creighton and SIU probably have a better resume with this consistency thing you have talked about.
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Re: Next Year Predictions

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Re: Next Year Predictions

Postby jackwagon » April 16th, 2013, 5:10 am

I buy that response. I wish shocker fans would put it another way then when they describe the conference as horrible or a sinking ship if that's how they feel. I agree we as a conference have a hard time getting a lot of at large bids but much of that stems from Non schedules. If we had teams schedule up and actually beat teams then we would get more love. Indiana st and to a lesser degree UNI probably helped CU and WSU get decent seeds this year with their non conference schedules. They went out and played tough schedules and showed they were quality teams. If MSU wouldn't of lost every non conference game and then turned around and won like 7 league games then our conference would probably look a little better. Its scenarios like those that bring our reputation down. Im not putting it all on the teams though. None of the big boys want to play valley schools so it is very hard to get those high quality non conference schedules that we need. If we somehow do land good non conf. games they are almost always on the road or if we are lucky neutral sites.
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Re: Next Year Predictions

Postby achrist70 » April 16th, 2013, 7:29 am

I am glad that the NCAA is starting to take notice of the "Big Boys' would rather play the no name schools rather than a mid major school for their non conference and punish them for it I do think that this will help valley schools because there is no school in the power 6 (or is it 5 or 7 now) that wants to play all "Big Boy" schools and I think most of these recognize that Valley schools can give them a quality win so there should be more opportunities, however as a conference we need to take advantage of these opportunities so that we get 3-4 teams in the dance, I mean UNI and Indiana St both had great schedules but couldn't take advantage and get another at large for the league.
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Re: Next Year Predictions

Postby Ali » April 16th, 2013, 9:14 am

WSU lost 6 conference games this season including games against lower division teams. I'm not going to proclaim them unbeatable in the MVC next year.
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Re: Next Year Predictions

Postby Sir Sci » April 16th, 2013, 9:44 am

Ali wrote:WSU lost 6 conference games this season including games against lower division teams. I'm not going to proclaim them unbeatable in the MVC next year.


Unbeatable? Of course not. The easily picked favorite? Ya.
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Re: Next Year Predictions

Postby shoxrox » April 16th, 2013, 10:13 am

Ali wrote:WSU lost 6 conference games this season including games against lower division teams. I'm not going to proclaim them unbeatable in the MVC next year.


Are we talking about a healthy WSU or a team that''ll be missing 3 starters for the majority of the year again?

And who said they were gonna be unbeatable?
USA Today Coaches Top 25 Poll Conference Breakdown:

MVC: 1
WCC: 1
Atlantic Ten: 1
MWC: 1
Big East: 1

The Big East is Big Time.
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