Adunk33 wrote:Blers wrote:I know Illinois States been hit hard with injuries, but am I wrong in saying their success may largely hinge on the trio of Yarborough, Fayne, and Evans all being healthy? I know they’ve all missed a bit of time to varying degrees but from what I’ve seen losing one over an extended stretch could really derail the team.
ILST is heavily reliant on their big three. However, the team steps up when they are struck with adversity. Someone mentioned earlier in the thread about Bradley's drubbing at Ole Miss. Illinois State went there and won without Fayne, Bruninga, and Yarbrough for the last 3.5 of regulation and all of OT. Illinois State's largest player was a 6'5, 170 lb former walk-on.
Evans didn't play against Indiana State, and they picked up the win, thanks to big games from freshman Bruninga and sophomore Hein.
Losing all three, the Birds don't stand a chance. Lose two, probably still don't stand a chance, lose one, the team can function because someone will step up. However, think back to those good Wichita State teams. Think if you would have taken away Van Vleet, Baker, and (name any other player, really)...those teams would have been incredibly different, so its kind of a silly argument to make. Now, I'm knocking on all the wood I can find because I too, would not want to think about Redbird hoops without those three.
So the standings. Two games in and their are two big surprises for me. The Iowa teams. Drake and UNI have gone different directions to start the season. I mentioned over on Redbirdfan.net that UNI will have a late push, probably get the 5 or 6 seed in STL and win a game. Drake will slip some but have senior guards, which is important to have in this league.
I think that if you can get to 9 wins, you will not be playing Thursday night. I think anyone who does not play Thursday night will have a serious chance to win the whole thing. Valpo is a team I see making their Arch Madness Debut at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday night. I think SIU will be playing Thursday too. For the last two slots, I think it could be anyone except Illinois State, Mo State, UNI, and LuC, leaving Bradley, UE, INST, and Drake to fight away from those two spots. This is one of those years where 1-6 will have a serious shot and seeding really doesn't matter if you are in that range.
My issue with Bradley is not the I-74 rivalry, because it hasn't really been one lately, but it is their schedule. As an ILST fan, I know what an inflated record looks like (see every Tim Jankovich coached ISU team). He won 20 games almost every year he was at ILST, and had nothing to show for it because they were playing a 300+ noncon SOS. That is what BU has done this year. Their "Key" non-con games have been at San Diego State (big loss), and at Ole Miss (big loss). Had they been battle tested, they probably would have won at Drake (who has played Iowa, Minnesota, Wake Forrest, among other more challenging games). The win over UNI was impressive, but we'll know more when Bradley plays ILST, Mo State, and Loyola.
