Way too early, knee-jerk re-ranking

[BEARZ77]

I'll be the first to say the Bears haven't been very impressive so far, and I was not someone who thought we'd win the league this year. That said anybody dismissing the Bears at this point will probably pay the cost. Despite a myriad of issues, no team has been able to run away from the Bears and it's been their own mistakes that have cost them a number of close games. Ford is struggling with coming to grips with who he really needs on the court, but is starting to get fed up with a couple veterans and last night played 3 freshman significant minutes. We have 3 players in Prim, DaSilva, and Cook who are difficult to match up with; I don't see anyone else in the league with three like that. Prim's availability has been a key issue and his minutes will have to be managed all year, but he's a dominant low post scorer and we are starting to learn how to play off him. Players like Hall and the 3 freshman seem to be more accepting of complementary roles opposite those 3 than several veterans, and they play harder defensively even if they make some mistakes. Last year when we tried to play more half court, it worked for a while, but we didn't have the dominant inside scorer Prim is. If we continue to evolve into the team that recognizes that we need to play inside out and we get a decent defensive effort, we will be much more difficult in those close Valley games as this season progresses. Ford has a couple egos he's going to have to manage and the season will depend on how that develops.

Only UNI has really played well so far, and I'd probably say them and Drake, now that the Bulldogs are more at full strength, would be my favorites right now, but the Bears could change that. Won't say they will as Ford has key decisions to manage , but it's gonna get interesting I think.

[BCPanther]

UNI was good in Cancun but the playing with a lead struggles reared their head again in both games. Grand Canyon, Old Dominion and Marshall falling off a cliff really hurt the non-con schedule.

We'll know what UNI really is after the road swing to Colorado and Grand Canyon next Tuesday and Thursday. I'm cautiously optimistic that UNI is the most consistent team in the league and that's with our best player not playing real well outside of the South Carolina game.

[bleach]

Is it just me or does the "best player not playing well" phrase irritate you? If they aren't playing well, you need to not consider them your best player.

[MNPanthers]

1. UNI -- So far they've represented best.
2. MSU -- not a great record, but lots of good tests (including LSU) that will help them.
3. BU -- stinker against NW, but nice rebound against KSU -- and Brown, Childs, Kennell, Henry.
4. Loyola -- so far meh, but better than awful.
5. Drake -- Nice win against Murray; the rest of the record deceptive against bad sked.
6. Valpo -- not great, but not bad. Toledo win is underrated.
7. Evansville -- If you can get blown out by an AWFUL ECU team, UK was a fluke.
8-10 -- All awful. Did I see an ISUr fan suggest that they're 1 of 2 teams to beat? LOL.

Missouri State second? Lol, son, step away from the computer for a while.

Pre-season #1 pick, arguably the most talented roster. Lost to Miami (FL) by 4, Lost @ Xavier by 3 (got screwed), Lost to MAC power Buffalo by 1, Lost @ LSU by 15 but were within 2 midway into the 2nd half and without their best player.

I guess if the Bears had scheduled a weak sauce schedule people may be giving them more credit.

Buffalo is not the team they were last year. They lost to Dartmouth at home to open their season. Many valley teams have better wins than MSU'S best win, and they have had the most opportunities. No one is saying they can't turn it around, but so far they've been a tremendous letdown.

[goramblers2011]

Back to the way-too-early rankings!

How KenPom has MVC teams as of this morning. Obviously KenPom relies heavy on data and there isn't a ton of data at this point so these rankings are subject to change quite a bit. Hope to see a few MVC teams win their MTEs. Would love to have multiple MVC teams in the KenPom top 100 entering conference play.

99. UNI
105. Loyola
124. Bradley
127. Drake
137. Evansville
146. Missouri State
164. Indiana State
189. Valpo
204. Illinois State
237. SIU

An update on KenPom's rankings with some more games in the books:
96. UNI
110. Loyola
128. Bradley
131. Indiana State (!)
135. Drake
152. Missouri State
176. Evansville
197. Valpo
200. Illinois State
225. SIU

[MNPanthers]

Is it just me or does the "best player not playing well" phrase irritate you? If they aren't playing well, you need to not consider them your best player.

He was our best player last year and carried us for our most important win this year. He's our best player. Sorry if it irritates you

[isumvc1]

Back to the way-too-early rankings!

How KenPom has MVC teams as of this morning. Obviously KenPom relies heavy on data and there isn't a ton of data at this point so these rankings are subject to change quite a bit. Hope to see a few MVC teams win their MTEs. Would love to have multiple MVC teams in the KenPom top 100 entering conference play.

99. UNI
105. Loyola
124. Bradley
127. Drake
137. Evansville
146. Missouri State
164. Indiana State
189. Valpo
204. Illinois State
237. SIU

An update on KenPom's rankings with some more games in the books:
96. UNI
110. Loyola
128. Bradley
131. Indiana State (!)
135. Drake
152. Missouri State
176. Evansville
197. Valpo
200. Illinois State
225. SIU

Still too early to judge the Sycamores, we still have no idea if we'll finish in our usual 7th-10th position or make a play for the top 6. Still not playing defense as well as we should be.

The game at Wright State Saturday will tell a lot, Wright State is very similar to top tier MVC teams, so hopefully ISU plays well

[BEARZ77]

"Buffalo is not the team they were last year. They lost to Dartmouth at home to open their season. Many valley teams have better wins than MSU'S best win, and they have had the most opportunities. No one is saying they can't turn it around, but so far they've been a tremendous letdown.[/quote]

Again I agree MSU has not looked good to date, and I also agree Buffalo isn't what they were last year, still their current NET is 15 , and MSU has 6 teams on their noncon schedule who's current NETS are top 100. It's hard to evaluate some teams this early and again to know what criteria are the most important. NET is supposed to be the main evaluation tool and it varies greatly from RPI. An example is West Virginia has #1 RPI and a NET over a 100. Now we didn't beat Buffalo and winning is everything, so yeah any negative vibes for MSU are warranted record wise. I said all along everyone was a year early on MSU, but that also included the belief that we would be tough by March this year, and I don't think that's changed. If Prim's healthy and Ford brings the freshmen along, we'll be a very deep and difficult team to play at some point this year imho.

[BCPanther]

"Buffalo is not the team they were last year. They lost to Dartmouth at home to open their season. Many valley teams have better wins than MSU'S best win, and they have had the most opportunities. No one is saying they can't turn it around, but so far they've been a tremendous letdown.

Again I agree MSU has not looked good to date, and I also agree Buffalo isn't what they were last year, still their current NET is 15 , and MSU has 6 teams on their noncon schedule who's current NETS are top 100. It's hard to evaluate some teams this early and again to know what criteria are the most important. NET is supposed to be the main evaluation tool and it varies greatly from RPI. An example is West Virginia has #1 RPI and a NET over a 100. Now we didn't beat Buffalo and winning is everything, so yeah any negative vibes for MSU are warranted record wise. I said all along everyone was a year early on MSU, but that also included the belief that we would be tough by March this year, and I don't think that's changed. If Prim's healthy and Ford brings the freshmen along, we'll be a very deep and difficult team to play at some point this year imho.

You're looking at last year's NET. This year's won't be released for another 10 days.

[ahunte1]

If Prim's healthy and Ford brings the freshmen along, we'll be a very deep and difficult team to play at some point this year imho.

And this is the reason the league is so hard to predict. New faces everywhere. You'd like to think that all ten teams will be better to some degree in February than they are now.

ETA: UNI is #1 in Kenpom's "minutes continuity" rating. That's a big reason I was high on them coming into the year.