MVC Week 3 Discussion

[VUGrad1314]

How am I punishing A.J. Green? Take everything else out and look at the numbers. The player vs player numbers and tell me Green is having a better season than JFL? You can't do that. If you think Green is having a better season than JFL right now STATISTICALLY which is what we should be looking at for player of the year I can't help you. Again, if this is truly about the best player in the conference it's Freeman and it's not even a contest right now. If team performance matters then it's Green and it's also not even a contest right now. My point is that team performance shouldn't matter when evaluating the award for best player and player statistics should be the only thing that matters if it's a player award.

[MNPanthers]

There's a ton of season left so it's pointless to claim JFL is more deserving. AJs stats are overcoming a very slow start to the year. Not saying early season results don't matter but If he keeps pace with how he's been playing in the last 11 games there won't be any controversy about him getting POY. Time will tell, and winning should matter.

Could easily flip the supporting cast argument the other way, if Valpo had a better supporting cast, JFLs points per game and overall impact would obviously drop. And you have no idea what Fazekas adds, he's played a game and a half and you're calling him Valpo's Berhow, which is some insane extrapolation.

[tribecalledquest]

There's a ton of season left so it's pointless to claim JFL is more deserving. AJs stats are overcoming a very slow start to the year. Not saying early season results don't matter but If he keeps pace with how he's been playing in the last 11 games there won't be any controversy about him getting POY. Time will tell, and winning should matter.

Could easily flip the supporting cast argument the other way, if Valpo had a better supporting cast, JFLs points per game and overall impact would obviously drop. And you have no idea what Fazekas adds, he's played a game and a half and you're calling him Valpo's Berhow, which is some insane extrapolation.

Freeman Liberty can guard people. AJ Green cannot. I realize it’s hard to put that in statistical form but it’s true. AJ Green will win POY. He’s an amazing scorer.

I’m just taken aback each time I watch UNI how he literally doesn’t and can’t play a lick of defense. Especially on the ball.

[BCPanther]

There's a ton of season left so it's pointless to claim JFL is more deserving. AJs stats are overcoming a very slow start to the year. Not saying early season results don't matter but If he keeps pace with how he's been playing in the last 11 games there won't be any controversy about him getting POY. Time will tell, and winning should matter.

Could easily flip the supporting cast argument the other way, if Valpo had a better supporting cast, JFLs points per game and overall impact would obviously drop. And you have no idea what Fazekas adds, he's played a game and a half and you're calling him Valpo's Berhow, which is some insane extrapolation.

Freeman Liberty can guard people. AJ Green cannot. I realize it’s hard to put that in statistical form but it’s true. AJ Green will win POY. He’s an amazing scorer.

I’m just taken aback each time I watch UNI how he literally doesn’t and can’t play a lick of defense. Especially on the ball.

He had Kennell the entire second half last night. How'd Kennell's night go?

I'm not saying AJ is anything more than an average defender but he's not asked to be. Brown and Pickford are asked to defend at a high level. AJ isn't at this point.

[BCPanther]

How am I punishing A.J. Green? Take everything else out and look at the numbers. The player vs player numbers and tell me Green is having a better season than JFL? You can't do that. If you think Green is having a better season than JFL right now STATISTICALLY which is what we should be looking at for player of the year I can't help you. Again, if this is truly about the best player in the conference it's Freeman and it's not even a contest right now. If team performance matters then it's Green and it's also not even a contest right now. My point is that team performance shouldn't matter when evaluating the award for best player and player statistics should be the only thing that matters if it's a player award.

In league games, AJ is putting up numbers not seen since Hersey Hawkins.

We can go round and round on this but the reality is that they aren't giving it to a guy on a middle of the pack team over a dominant offensive player on the team that wins the league and, maybe, by multiple games

It's not a statistics award in practice in this league. You'll notice the lack of awards for Colt Ryan and DJ Balentine.

[tribecalledquest]

There's a ton of season left so it's pointless to claim JFL is more deserving. AJs stats are overcoming a very slow start to the year. Not saying early season results don't matter but If he keeps pace with how he's been playing in the last 11 games there won't be any controversy about him getting POY. Time will tell, and winning should matter.

Could easily flip the supporting cast argument the other way, if Valpo had a better supporting cast, JFLs points per game and overall impact would obviously drop. And you have no idea what Fazekas adds, he's played a game and a half and you're calling him Valpo's Berhow, which is some insane extrapolation.

Freeman Liberty can guard people. AJ Green cannot. I realize it’s hard to put that in statistical form but it’s true. AJ Green will win POY. He’s an amazing scorer.

I’m just taken aback each time I watch UNI how he literally doesn’t and can’t play a lick of defense. Especially on the ball.

He had Kennell the entire second half last night. How'd Kennell's night go?

I'm not saying AJ is anything more than an average defender but he's not asked to be. Brown and Pickford are asked to defend at a high level. AJ isn't at this point.

Danya Kingsby averages 7.5 PPG. AJ Green started out on him because he is the worst scorer of the three Bradley guards. Bradley knows AJ can’t guard anyone off the dribble and Kingsby scores BU’s first 11 points of the game. Just like in last years MVCT title game. UNI tried to hide AJ on Luqman Lundy and Lundy went off like never before to lead the BU comeback.

AJ isn’t an average defender. He’s a bad one. He may not always be but right now he is. He can guard non athletic spot up shooters well enough. But that’s where it ends for him.

[VUGrad1314]

There's a ton of season left so it's pointless to claim JFL is more deserving. AJs stats are overcoming a very slow start to the year. Not saying early season results don't matter but If he keeps pace with how he's been playing in the last 11 games there won't be any controversy about him getting POY. Time will tell, and winning should matter.

Could easily flip the supporting cast argument the other way, if Valpo had a better supporting cast, JFLs points per game and overall impact would obviously drop. And you have no idea what Fazekas adds, he's played a game and a half and you're calling him Valpo's Berhow, which is some insane extrapolation.

I do know that prior to his injury against Bradley that he scored at least 13 points in 9 of 14 games last year (2 0f which were MVC games). Considering how he was playing during that stretch I think those numbers against Illinois State and Missouri State are more indicative of his potential impact and in his second stint he had a 15 point game against Drake. He also had 23 against Toledo this year. The trouble with Fazekas is that his sample sizes are so small and marked by long layoffs it's hard to measure what his impact is. For comparison's sake, Berhow has been in double figures four straight MVC contests after a slow start of 6 points each in the first two games. Fazekas actually only logged starter's minutes in six games (I'm not counting the Bradley game where he got hurt after 7 minutes so here's the comparison:

Berhow (This year) : 65 points in 6 games AVG: 10.8

Fazekas (last year): 64 points in 6 games Avg. 10.7

Berhow is doing this against a tougher MVC than Fazekas faced but Berhow also has the benefit of playing with Sophomore A.J. Green and a stronger group of players around him while Fazekas played with Freshman JFL (he made a big leap this year) and a worse, dysfunctional group of players. I call that a wash. In light of this I don't think calling Fazekas Valpo's Berhow in terms of the secondary scoring he provides is an absurd extrapolation at all. However, in terms of overall impact on a game, I agree that Berhow is superior but I was looking for the best possible comparison. It's not quite a fair one but I don't think it's as far off as you might think.

[VUGrad1314]

How am I punishing A.J. Green? Take everything else out and look at the numbers. The player vs player numbers and tell me Green is having a better season than JFL? You can't do that. If you think Green is having a better season than JFL right now STATISTICALLY which is what we should be looking at for player of the year I can't help you. Again, if this is truly about the best player in the conference it's Freeman and it's not even a contest right now. If team performance matters then it's Green and it's also not even a contest right now. My point is that team performance shouldn't matter when evaluating the award for best player and player statistics should be the only thing that matters if it's a player award.

In league games, AJ is putting up numbers not seen since Hersey Hawkins.

We can go round and round on this but the reality is that they aren't giving it to a guy on a middle of the pack team over a dominant offensive player on the team that wins the league and, maybe, by multiple games

It's not a statistics award in practice in this league. You'll notice the lack of awards for Colt Ryan and DJ Balentine.

You're probably right. These awards almost always go to great players on successful teams regardless of the league. I'm just saying that precedents can (and maybe in this case should--we'll see there's still lots of season left)--change. Would it change your opinion if perhaps Valpo finishes in say the top 3 or 4 considering they were picked what 9th? I think that would merit JFL some serious consideration based on his team's performance especially relative to their projection. I did not account for just league games and that's a layer of analysis I should be going into but I can't imagine JFL's numbers are too far off if that does somehow give Green any kind of statistical advantage. I (or somebody else if they want to get to it sooner) will investigate that and see what comes out looking only at league play.

[MNPanthers]

At the end of the day, AJ and JFL both are clearly the top players in the Valley. They're both a ton of fun to watch, and they have different skill sets. These awards are fun to follow but it shouldn't take anything away from either player. I for one am happy to see Valpo far exceeding expectations this year and much credit to JFL for making that happen.

[VUGrad1314]

You are right League games tilt this considerably in favor of Green based largely on offense. You can still argue that JFL has a greater overall impact on the game but that doesn't matter. When the statistical argument loses some of its steam it becomes harder to advocate for JFL over Green as things stand right now because this level of offensive performance coupled with UNI's headline grabbing team performance is extremely hard to argue against. If we're being fair, only the 18 games of the MVC season should be used for consideration because it's the only apples to apples data we have:

MVC Play:

Green" 25.8 PPG 52.7 FG%48.1 3PT% 100% FT2.8 RPG 2.3 APG 0.7SPG 3.0TO\G

Freeman-Liberty: 19.8 PPG 41.2% FG% 26.8 3PT% 85.7 FT% 5.2 RPG 2.3SPG 2.5 TO\G

The loss of the PPG average and FG% advantage is really hard to overcome. Wow I had no idea just how cold Green started the year. Javon has had a couple of off\inefficient nights as the main focal point of the offense in the MVC. That hasn't occurred for Green yet. In light of the closing of the statistical gap and the difference in team performance, it certainly does seem like Green is the frontrunner for and if everything holds the likely winner of the MVC POY award. I still contend that Freeman-Liberty's overall impact on the game is greater than Green's, though. JFL is the most IMPACTFUL player in the conference, but as things stand right now, he is not the POY. I still wouldn't count him out or write this race off as over though. I think JFL can still potentially make it interesting, but right now, the award is Green's to lose.