MissouriValleyUnite wrote:As for Northern Illinois' prospects of going to the American -- because the incentive of needing to keep the Chicago market is only what would pique the MAC's interest in Illinois State, IMO -- are very slim. Northern Illinois has the 2nd lowest endowment in the MAC, just a sliver above Eastern Michigan. That's an important number to the AAC (look up the endowments of recent adds compared to N Illinois). Northern Illinois' infrastructure is nowhere near those of the AAC's. You can only enter DeKalb on a two land road with potholes, and the nearest exits are several miles off (13 to the west, 10-12 to the east).
Buffalo + the Ohio 6 are not interested in permanently expanding west of Chicago. They'd be willing to go south for proven successful FBS programs like Western Kentucky (now off the board), Middle Tennessee (now off the board), and Arkansas State (Plan B/C for the Red Wolves), but that's it. Otherwise, the MAC's vying for Eastern exposure/recruiting when it comes to successful FCS programs. That's why James Madison has an offer to join (the Dukes are weighing their MAC offer with their Sun Belt offer -- we should hear for sure this calendar year). If JMU joins the MAC, that's when we watch Missouri State's bid for the Sun Belt's final spot (regardless if most deem that as poor direction). Also, recall that very recent provisions deincentivize G5 conferences from expanding beyond 12, so the balance of call-up slots is likely just 1, maybe 2, for the foreseeable future.
Northern Illinois' success is predicated on hitting the IL/WI/MN/IA/NE/KS recruits the B1G/BXII miss out on -- they're the closest (and best non-BCS school) for many of those kids. That situation is exactly why the Huskies clinched an Orange Bowl berth and flirted with the Fiesta Bowl. Northern Illinois is fully aware that allowing Northern Iowa and/or Illinois State into the MAC cuts into that vast recruiting market and could be a killer. So Buffalo + the Ohio 6 + Northern Illinois have incentive not to add UNI or ISU. That leaves the 3 Michigans, who almost always votes with NIllinois anyway, and then Balls Tate.
As for the "Dakotas would never join the MVC due to their cozy Sioux Falls tourney" sentiment a few pages back, NDSU & SDSU allegedly sent feelers out to Wichita + the MVFC schools just last year. The Sioux Falls tourney is beneficial to the Jackrabbits' revenues, but they barely affect NDSU's, who's the far more attractive prospect of the duo anyway. NDSU isn't stupid -- they know while the Summit's an underrated league, it's on thin ice. It's not the ideal geographical league for Fort Wayne, IUPUI, or WIU. Denver's endowment is attractive and they're the favorite for the WCC's next add if it expands again. Oral Roberts is always a flight risk. If NDSU/SDSU were offered, you bet they'd take it to ensure survival.
That said, I have no interest in SDSU, and only NDSU if the MVC loses more than 2. Give me Belmont and/or Oral Roberts first (assuming SLU/UD/NMSU would reject or not carry the votes) and that's only if the MVC is poached again.
The MVC is fine if Evansville, Indiana State, and Missouri State have administrations who realize their Basketball programs are the best avenue to market their academics. Each school had success with it at some point in the past, but recent damage was inflicted. Southern Illinois is trying, but Lowery set them back a decade, which few could have predicted. Illinois State & Loyola are also trying, the latter will get there the sooner they replace Moser. Bradley will be back eventually, UNI is low on financials but committed, Drake will improve. Missouri State's administration worries me, and I suspect the President is blatantly trying to morph it into a Football school.
If certain schools don't get their act together, don't be surprised if vultures like the A-10 circle us and at least try to do what they want with us. If Presidents get their act together, at least the MVC will have more control of its own fate.
I agree with a lot of what you say, but I have to chime in on Northern Illinois. The endowment is indeed low but DeKalb is in the Chicago metro area, which has value to the AAC or any conference trying to put together a TV package or even network. As for pothole filled dirt roads, I-88 (ie the Reagan Expressway) runs from Chicago right by DeKalb-- you can get off just a couple miles south of the town. Yes western Midwest recruiting has been key in the trenches, but their success has more to do with recruiting speed for the skill positions in Florida and Alabama, begun by former SIU coach Jerry Kill (now at Minnesota). The idea is 3 stars in Florida, and sometimes even the 2 stars, are better than 4 stars in Illinois. Infrastructure is actually pretty good, with a new full size IPF to go along with a fairly new weight room and football office building. NIU needs to get its attendance up and expand its 24k stadium though before they can expect a bid. And yes, my understanding is so long as NIU is in the MAC, they're opposed to westward expansion, so ISU/MSU/UNI shouldn't expect a phone call any time soon.
I wouldn't rule out the MAC declining to renew their agreement with UMass and standing pat at 12, either if JMU declines or they just decide to withdraw their offer. UMass was added when Temple was still in the MAC, but now with Temple gone you have UMass (one of the worst IA programs) on an island. The MAC has to make a decision in the next year I believe.
