2020 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[VUGrad1314]

Do you think we can get the individual team breakdowns that show Thursday percentage and odds of finish based upon record for the final week. Like for example: If Valpo Drake Missouri State and Indiana State go 2-0 1-1 or 0-2 what happens? That sort of thing. Thanks so much for all you do! (If you want to wait until tomorrow so that you have the final net ratings going into the final week that's fine too.) Your work is always appreciated!

[Hacksaw]

Do you think we can get the individual team breakdowns that show Thursday percentage and odds of finish based upon record for the final week. Like for example: If Valpo Drake Missouri State and Indiana State go 2-0 1-1 or 0-2 what happens? That sort of thing. Thanks so much for all you do! (If you want to wait until tomorrow so that you have the final net ratings going into the final week that's fine too.) Your work is always appreciated!

Of course. I will definitely provide all of this and my plan was to wait until Monday morning to, as you said, have the most updated Sagarin and NET numbers. However this Tuesday and Wednesday nights, I am hoping to provide updates as the games are completed. Glad you enjoy it!

[Saluki 4 Life]

Play in game race is going to be crazy this final week. so is 3-6 in the conference. Based on what we have seen though I don't think anyone will care at all who they play in the first round. Anybody want to see Valpo or Missouri State right now? one of them is going to be playing Thursday.

[Hacksaw]

Weighted odds:


Unweighted (each game is a coinflip) odds:

[BCPanther]

Play in game race is going to be crazy this final week. so is 3-6 in the conference. Based on what we have seen though I don't think anyone will care at all who they play in the first round. Anybody want to see Valpo or Missouri State right now? one of them is going to be playing Thursday.

From UNI perspective. The decent chance of Loyola/Bradley/Missouri State/Valpo all being on the bottom half make me very, very happy.

[Hacksaw]

As noted previously, some would question Valpo's possibility of getting the 3 seed. I've decided to keep a very small probability of that happening included within the model. Amongst other things, this would require Valpo's NET to be ahead of Bradley's (currently 28 spots back: 106 to 134) coupled with two Valpo wins and two Bradley losses. So even though this may be rare, it doesn't seem so highly improbable that it should be eliminated as an option.

For further transparency, some NET tiebreaker options that are not being included in the model include those which require a high NET variability (Bradley the 6 seed and Drake the 3 seed) and those which require an extreme NET variability (UNI the 3 seed and SIU the 1 seed).

[Saluki 4 Life]

Play in game race is going to be crazy this final week. so is 3-6 in the conference. Based on what we have seen though I don't think anyone will care at all who they play in the first round. Anybody want to see Valpo or Missouri State right now? one of them is going to be playing Thursday.

From UNI perspective. The decent chance of Loyola/Bradley/Missouri State/Valpo all being on the bottom half make me very, very happy.

I am thinking the same as an SIU fan hoping for the 4/5 game.

Looks very very likely that 4/5 game is going to Indiana State/SIU

[Saluki 4 Life]

just asking... is it way too many scenarios to show the chart where if these teams win and these teams lose this is how the seeding would shake out? 2 games left may be too many scenarios. I was just curious, i know you always do that with one left.

[Hacksaw]

just asking... is it way too many scenarios to show the chart where if these teams win and these teams lose this is how the seeding would shake out? 2 games left may be too many scenarios. I was just curious, i know you always do that with one left.

Yeah, with 10 total games left there are 1,024 possible scenarios left. Each game played cuts it in half, which is why the sweet spot is with 5 total games left and 32 scenarios. At that point the graph is still easier to digest.

[Saluki 4 Life]

That's what I figured. Do your charts account of a possible change in NET or just use what it is currently at? For instance I can see Indiana State/MSU both finishing with 10 wins and it coming down to NET. MSU currently 12 points behind in NET but if they make up a game on the Sycamores it is likely going to be really close that Sunday morning.