BCPanther wrote:You're using UNIs worst year since 2003 to try to make your argument here. You're also completely delusional to think UNI ends up sub 200 anytime soon.
The AAC was the right move, but you guys are sure working really hard to convince yourselves that that is the case.
Here's a fun fact: on average, the eight Valley teams (not including WSU/CU/LU) lost 32 points a year off their RPI over the last four years (2014-2017) as compared to the final four years with Creighton (2010-2013). Over the 2010-2013 time frame, Creighton's average RPI was 71.5. Over the 2014-2017 timeframe, Wichita State's average RPI was 25. UNI's RPI has fallen 18.25 points on average over that time period.
Even if you assumed that Murray State is the replacement, and their four-year average RPI increases when they join the Valley by a comparable level to what Loyola's did (which would ignore Wichita's contribution to that improvement), you'd still be looking at the same difference to conference RPI as when Loyola replaced Creighton.
UNI's worst down-years are ahead of them, not behind them. UNI averaging another 18 RPI drop over the next four seasons isn't a worst case scenario -- it's expected. Which means we're talking about ~150 in the majority of down-years, and sub-200 in the worst of them.
Simple question: If Murray State was in the MVC in the 2016-17 season instead of Wichita State, is UNI, in 2016-17, a sub-200 RPI team? Every bit of quantifiable evidence says yes. But your counter-argument of "nuh uh" is pretty compelling, I'll grant you.