2020 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

[goramblers2011]

A late Friday night battle between Bradley and Missouri State sounds like an excellent way to lead us into semifinal Saturday.

[Saluki 4 Life]

A late Friday night battle between Bradley and Missouri State sounds like an excellent way to lead us into semifinal Saturday.

I was just thinking about this along with some of the other match ups... I mean even starting the day Drake against UNI, that is a good 8/1... Then you get 4/5... Then 7/2 between Loyola and Valpo that is a good game too. It feels as wide open as it ever has.

[Hacksaw]

That's what I figured. Do your charts account of a possible change in NET or just use what it is currently at? For instance I can see Indiana State/MSU both finishing with 10 wins and it coming down to NET. MSU currently 12 points behind in NET but if they make up a game on the Sycamores it is likely going to be really close that Sunday morning.

The model does take into account some potential changes in NET rankings. Without knowing how it's being calculated it's a hard metric to quantify, however I am utilizing some expected increases/decreases in NET ranking based on how far above or below each team finishes compared to their expected win totals plus then a small standard deviation on top of that. Obviously NET ranking takes into account game results, but it also takes into account offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. I do not track these efficiency measures, and in general they align with wins and losses, but not necessarily, which makes it harder to project.

[BCPanther]

A late Friday night battle between Bradley and Missouri State sounds like an excellent way to lead us into semifinal Saturday.

The bottom half of that bracket is a war.

SIU/Indiana State in the 4/5. First one to 50 wins?

[uniguy]

If they end up in the 8 spot, Drake might be the best Arch Madness 8-seed of all time. Heck, in 18% of the scenarios Drake goes 1-1 and still ends up in the 8-spot. They'd be coming into quarterfinal Friday with 20 wins out of the 8-spot.

[Saluki 4 Life]

If they end up in the 8 spot, Drake might be the best Arch Madness 8-seed of all time. Heck, in 18% of the scenarios Drake goes 1-1 and still ends up in the 8-spot. They'd be coming into quarterfinal Friday with 20 wins out of the 8-spot.

That 8/9 game regardless who is in it is going to be a war. The winner will have a real chance against UNI on Friday too, I think. I would pick UNI obviously but that will feel more like a 4/1 match up than an 8/1 IMO.

[Hacksaw]

Eight games to go. Note these charts are still utilizing this morning's Sagarin ratings and NET rankings.

Weighted seeding probabilities:


Unweighted seeding probabilities:

[VUGrad1314]

Cannot wait to see the weighted totals and individual graphs and everything tomorrow so that we know what we're heading into come Saturday! Needless to say I'm going to become a pretty big SIU fan for the next couple of games. Nothing personal to the other fanbases I just would really rather play on Friday. I hope y'all understand. Even though to be honest it's really just as simple as win and in for us. We control our own destiny and that's really all you can ask for going into the final game.

[VUGrad1314]

Wait Valpo can avoid Thursday for sure if Drake loses to UNI? How does that work? Can somebody explain that to me.

[Kyle@MOState]

Cannot wait to see the weighted totals and individual graphs and everything tomorrow so that we know what we're heading into come Saturday! Needless to say I'm going to become a pretty big SIU fan for the next couple of games. Nothing personal to the other fanbases I just would really rather play on Friday. I hope y'all understand. Even though to be honest it's really just as simple as win and in for us. We control our own destiny and that's really all you can ask for going into the final game.

No offense taken... Go Bears, and Go Trees.