Official 2011-12 MVCfans.com Prediction - 6th Place

by **MVCfans** » August 29th, 2011, 6:09 am

Each week we will open a poll for users to predict the end of season finish for the MVC 2011-12 basketball season. We will work in reverse order, concluding with the predicted MVC champion chosen by our users between the last two teams remaining in week 9 (just in time for MVC media day).

Drake was selected as the 7th place finisher (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1327&start=0)

Week 5 - Who will finish in 6th place during the 2011-12 MVC mens basketball season?
-You are choosing the team that you believe will finish in 6th place for this regular season. Poll open until the evening of Monday, September 5.

Official MVCfans.com - Predictions:
10th Place - Southern Illinois
9th Place - Bradley
8th Place - Illinois State
7th Place - Drake
7th Place - ....

**Sponsor**

by **SubGod22** » August 29th, 2011, 11:51 am

This could end up being a more interesting race than I had previously thought. I know it's early, but it's interesting. Approximately 40 more votes to go before this one will end, but the early signs make it look like it'll be closer than most of the rest and make for some interesting dialogue.

by **valleychamp** » August 29th, 2011, 12:00 pm

It is certainly getting tougher at this point.

At this point, it will probably be between UNI, MSU, and UE for these next 3 spots. And, IMO Evansville is the least talented of those three so I vote them here. They should be a pretty decent team, and will win quite a few games, but I just could not put them above any other teams.

Although, the new arena/excitement factor could be a big boost for them this year, and that might be something that could bump them up a few spots...

by **Bluejay09Bear06** » August 29th, 2011, 12:09 pm

I agree that 3rd-6th is a crapshoot. I picked Evansville pretty much because I cannot recall Simmons ever finishing above 6th and although he may have the horses to do it this year, I'm detecting a pattern. Aces could prove me wrong for sure, but they have yet to do so, so it's 6th place for UE for my vote.

by **BirdmanBB** » August 29th, 2011, 12:28 pm

I think people are putting too much stock into last years finishes rather than looking at teams for what they are.

That being said, in the games that I have watched Weems play in, he rarely got things going until the 2nd half. Add that with a mix of 4 new starters and I think they are destined for Thursday or close to it. I just don't buy that he will be able to do it all for MSU right now. They are going to be asking an a lot out of guys who barely have any D1 experience. They could get lucky and find a diamond in the rough or two, but I wouldn't bank on it.

The rosters that have the most proven talent are CU and WSU clearly. I'm not sold on Indiana St. yet either. Evansville has the makings of a valley sleeper and UNI's stifling defense to which they can credit many wins will not be as close to as good as it has been the last few years. Then you are missing an excellent player and leadership from Kwadzo as well.

This is going to be a two horse race this year with CU and WSU, with Evansville and maybe Indiana St. fighting for 3rd. Hopefully the valley can gut out some big wins in the non-con to finally get us over that hump, but for that to happen, we really need the bottom to perform well.

by **Khan4Cats** » August 29th, 2011, 12:50 pm

I went with Evansville simply because I don't think they have the bodies to bang inside for a full season of Valley play.

by **MoValley John** » August 29th, 2011, 4:27 pm

Bluejay09Bear06 wrote:I agree that 3rd-6th is a crapshoot. I picked Evansville pretty much because I cannot recall Simmons ever finishing above 6th and although he may have the horses to do it this year, I'm detecting a pattern. Aces could prove me wrong for sure, but they have yet to do so, so it's 6th place for UE for my vote.

I don't know what pattern you're detecting, but if 6th is his ceiling because that is as high as he has finished, then you also should probably look a little deeper. I believe Simmons is only beginning his fourth year. And you can't forget what he inherited. I never thought that the Ace's would ever be in a serious basketball discussion, Simmons took over a bad, bad, bad program. With almost no talent, Simmons turned a team that went 9-21 the year before into a team with a winning record and a birth in the CIT in his first year. The second year, the Ace's dropped back again, but were much more competitive. Last year they went .500 and won a game in the CBI. And as opposed to in years past, they had also become a team that nobody could look past.

And unlike his first two years, the Ace's are starting to actually recruit some talent. With that, the Ace's might not finish higher than 6th this year, but I don't know how anyone could make that pick based on Marty's first few years. It was an ugly program he inherited, God-awful ugly. And while the Ace's don't look top 3 to me yet, either, Marty has put a bit of a shine on the product. If they finish in 6th this yuear, I think you can point more toward just how much work is needed and less because anything would lead you to think that it's a Marty trend. There simply is more than three years of rebuilding to do. As bad as it was, if by year five he hasn't moved up inside the top four, then maybe it is on Marty.

by **MoValley John** » August 29th, 2011, 4:34 pm

Okay, I went and looked at Marty's record at SIU-E. While it's a step down from the Valley, he did have a pretty impressive trendline. That is, if Wikipedia is telling the truth.

2002-2003
9-18
T-9th

2003-2004
16-12
T-5th

2004-2005
23-9
2nd- NCAA Division II 1st Round

2005-2006
25-8
T-1st West- NCAA Division II Elite Eight

2006-2007
15-12
5th West

by **BEARZ77** » August 29th, 2011, 4:42 pm

Can't really complain with anyone picking us from here on in, but I do think all those who keep noting our total lack of experience have not done much research. Granted it's not on par with a number of teams, but it's more extensive than many think. Both Weems and Patterson are 5th year seniors and with Rhine a 4th year guy, no team in the league has two guys over 6'10 with more experience. Bizoukas has over 1400 minutes of pg guard playing time in the Big East, which is more minutes than the starting pgs for either WSU or Indiana State; not saying he's their calibre, just that he's far from inexperienced. And Pickens started 17 games as a frosh, and Scheer played as many minutes as many starters did last year.We add 2 juco All Americans and a third juco who redshirted a year at K State. We won't be relying on any frosh at all unless Kirk forces his way into the rotation . By conference start we will be pretty salty.

But like I said, can't really fault those who pick us here or in the 5 slot; it's a safe pick given our losses. Don't think it will be accurate as this is a more talented team than the Bears have had in about 5 years. Also don't see this as the two team race many predict. WSU is very talented, but their frontline losses were huge and Hatch was money for them in an awful lot of critical situations. Creighton will be interesting , but I see the same team with some young depth but minus Lawson, so I don't equate that with obvious dominance. I think it will be a 5 team race most of the year.

by **glm38** » August 29th, 2011, 7:27 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:Can't really complain with anyone picking us from here on in, but I do think all those who keep noting our total lack of experience have not done much research. Granted it's not on par with a number of teams, but it's more extensive than many think. Both Weems and Patterson are 5th year seniors and with Rhine a 4th year guy, no team in the league has two guys over 6'10 with more experience. Bizoukas has over 1400 minutes of pg guard playing time in the Big East, which is more minutes than the starting pgs for either WSU or Indiana State; not saying he's their calibre, just that he's far from inexperienced. And Pickens started 17 games as a frosh, and Scheer played as many minutes as many starters did last year.We add 2 juco All Americans and a third juco who redshirted a year at K State. We won't be relying on any frosh at all unless Kirk forces his way into the rotation . By conference start we will be pretty salty.

But like I said, can't really fault those who pick us here or in the 5 slot; it's a safe pick given our losses. Don't think it will be accurate as this is a more talented team than the Bears have had in about 5 years. Also don't see this as the two team race many predict. WSU is very talented, but their frontline losses were huge and Hatch was money for them in an awful lot of critical situations. Creighton will be interesting , but I see the same team with some young depth but minus Lawson, so I don't equate that with obvious dominance. I think it will be a 5 team race most of the year.

Good post. I completely see the logic in picking us anywhere from 6 to 3. I agree we have more experience than most think. And based on early reports I do think we have the talent to replace those 4 seniors as good as they were. To me the big unknown is our head coach. He looks like a good hire. But he's completely unproven at the D1 head coaching level. I hope he's got it all together right from the start but it wouldn't surprise me if there were some growing pains.....

Regarding the post that Weems really didn't get it going until the 2nd half in most games?? I watched every game he played last year and nothing could be further from the truth. The truth is Kyle probably deferred to the 4 seniors a little too much last year. Cuonzo stated several times last year that the team really didn't run that many plays for him. I think he's capable of much more this year.