Is Our Conference Ready For An Explosion?

by **BirdmanBB** » October 13th, 2011, 8:03 am

Looking at articles, message boards, stats and rosters over the last few months are starting to make me think that the MVC could actually return to a 4 bid year as soon as next season. For example, I know a lot of Redbird fans expect us to be very competitive next season. We have no seniors this year, but we will have a ton the following. As I look around the valley it seems like a lot of teams are in a similar position, priming themselves for a run at the valley title in 2012-13. A lot of young talent around the league that looks to be maturing and it seems like the same perfect storm we had in the not so distant past that everyone describes as the reason to why we recieved all of those bids that year. Heck, even Bilas is making a case for the valley to get 3 bids this year.

So from a Redbird perspective, I know we are looking for improvement this year, but are really looking to hit our stride in the 2012-13 year. How about your teams? It seems like a lot of us are right on the cusp and I feel that top teams right now like WSU and Creighton should be able to maintain through next season and teams like BU, Evansville, UNI, ISUr, ISUb and Drake are all planning on being on the rise or in contention in the 2012-13 season. It seems like the perfect storm all over again. What do you think?

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by **ShockValue** » October 13th, 2011, 8:45 am

I agree and hope that MVC capitalizes. The biggest concern for teams like WSU is how much a potential coaching change could set us back.

by **SubGod22** » October 13th, 2011, 8:51 am

ShockValue wrote:I agree and hope that MVC capitalizes. The biggest concern for teams like WSU is how much a potential coaching change could set us back.

I'm not worried.

by **ShockValue** » October 13th, 2011, 8:56 am

SubGod22 wrote:
ShockValue wrote:I agree and hope that MVC capitalizes. The biggest concern for teams like WSU is how much a potential coaching change could set us back.

I'm not worried.

The upside of being worried is that it probably means we've had a good season. There aren't many cases of a coaching change happening and having an immediate improvement.

by **2livewu** » October 13th, 2011, 10:34 am

Every team thinks "their team" is getting better with new, shiny and better recruits.

Hell UNI thinks replacing Kujo with a freshman is no big deal. He'll be up to speed by start of Valley play. :Bam:

Optimism runs rampant before the season gets under way. I'm sure there are a few gems out there that few if any fans recognize now but the reality is most of the recruits will not live up to their hype.

It's going to be the strength of the programs. Now we may be able to argue that the programs are getting stronger, BUT we're breaking in 2 new coaches this year (MSU, BU) and 3 more are on the proverbial hot seat (ISUR, DU & SIU). UE's Marty Simmons isn't going anywhere (what's this nonsense about him turning down BCS offers last year?) McDermott has failed at a BCS job so he's not going to get a 2nd chance anytime in the near future (probably never). Jake likes Cedar Falls (no accounting for taste) and has turned down far better offers than UNI so he appears safe. Another strong season for 3G and the rumors will be out of control and Lansing will get some serious looks with a strong follow up 2nd season.

But I am not convinced the programs as a whole are any stronger than they were 4-7 years ago, and I fear they are weaker.

3 bids is a perfect storm this season, one that I don't see happening. Creighton is going to be NAILS next year and with any kind of solid scheduling should be a near lock for the tourney. ISUB will be ok but they lose a lot (Printy, Richard, Lathan, Walker) and won't be an at large at all. WSU loses a ton and will be rebuilding. Evansville doesn't lose much but they don't have much to begin with, certainly not an at large team. MSU should be improved (if the coach works out) but is a wild card. UNI is in kind of the same spot, they could be a lot better, but that's not exactly an at large roster. BU has a long way to go and won't be an at large team. ISUR could surprise, but again, it's a long way away. DU will not be good. SIU is terrible.

3-4 teams would be a monumental surprise I believe.

by **TylerDurden** » October 13th, 2011, 11:06 am

When you are considering bids, you can't only look at what happens in the MVC, but also must consider what happens elsewhere.

We all may agree that the league is on the upswing, but that upswing needs to be enough to overcome the existing gap between where we are and where we want to be as a group. It can be a combination of the MVC teams being better and others being worse; or of MVC teams being better and others being stagnant; etc.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. I can't call it.

by **MoBraves** » October 13th, 2011, 12:31 pm

TylerDurden wrote:When you are considering bids, you can't only look at what happens in the MVC, but also must consider what happens elsewhere.

We all may agree that the league is on the upswing, but that upswing needs to be enough to overcome the existing gap between where we are and where we want to be as a group. It can be a combination of the MVC teams being better and others being worse; or of MVC teams being better and others being stagnant; etc.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. I can't call it.

I agree with this completely - other leagues contend to be stronger too.
I think this season will tell a lot as to the immediate success over the next 2-3 years. We had some really good newcomers in the league last year, so hopefully we'll repeat that in 2011'-'12.

I only see 2 Valley schools with bids this year. I don't see the top 2 teams being as good as the top 2 from a year ago, and we didn't even get an At-Large! Plus there are so many unknowns this year with 2 coaching changes, half the teams relying on impact of newcomers and on newcomers from last year who made a good impression, but will be tested more this year. There is no way our league resembles anything from 5 seasons ago until we prove ourselves, especially with big OOC wins.

Optimism DOES run rampant at the beginning of each new season. I am less optimistic this year than I have been for a long time, though I feel strongly that the conference as a whole is better, as ISU-R, BU, and hopefully SIU will improve from their disappointing seasons from a year ago. Anybody can win on any given night, especially on their home court.

by **DoubleJayAlum** » October 14th, 2011, 6:27 am

BirdmanBB wrote:Looking at articles, message boards, stats and rosters over the last few months are starting to make me think that the MVC could actually return to a 4 bid year as soon as next season. For example, I know a lot of Redbird fans expect us to be very competitive next season. We have no seniors this year, but we will have a ton the following. As I look around the valley it seems like a lot of teams are in a similar position, priming themselves for a run at the valley title in 2012-13. A lot of young talent around the league that looks to be maturing and it seems like the same perfect storm we had in the not so distant past that everyone describes as the reason to why we recieved all of those bids that year. Heck, even Bilas is making a case for the valley to get 3 bids this year.

So from a Redbird perspective, I know we are looking for improvement this year, but are really looking to hit our stride in the 2012-13 year. How about your teams? It seems like a lot of us are right on the cusp and I feel that top teams right now like WSU and Creighton should be able to maintain through next season and teams like BU, Evansville, UNI, ISUr, ISUb and Drake are all planning on being on the rise or in contention in the 2012-13 season. It seems like the perfect storm all over again. What do you think?

I've posted several times that I think CU will be better in 2012-13 than this year. We only have one senior...

It does seem like our talent league wide is getting better. I see several BCS caliber kids across team rosters and I don't think that was the case for several recent years.

by **MoBraves** » October 14th, 2011, 9:52 am

I see several BCS caliber kids across team rosters and I don't think that was the case for several recent years.

You've got to be kidding - I can't even think of half the MVC teams having at least 1 BCS caliber kid - maybe Weems and McDermott - maybe Murry if he snaps out of his junior funk. I can't think of anyone else in the league that could start on a BCS team - unless maybe bottom-feeder teams. We've got very good MVC-type players, but that's as far as it goes. We have no Tatums, O'Bryants, Korvers in the league.

by **glm38** » October 14th, 2011, 10:05 am

"Maybe Weems and McDermott"?? You have to be kidding? Weems and McDermott are absolutely BCS caliber players.

And I would say Young, Odum, Echenique, and Ryan would have a shot at starting or significant PT on a lot of BCS caliber teams.