Gulley's out. Weems, Bizoukas and Patterson are gone. And this team finished .500 last year. So yes, I understand why there's skepticism about Missouri State. But look at this program a little closer, and I think there's reason for optimism:
1. Paul Lusk's defensive prowess: MSU finished second in the Valley in defensive efficiency last season behind Wichita State. This is Lusk's Purdue ties at work. Losing Patterson in the middle might hurt a little but he wasn't much of a shot-blocker anyway. Weems was a very good defensive player, too, but it wasn't just one guy that made this team go on the defensive end last year. This is the kind of thing that helps a team overachieve relative to its perceived "talent" level.
2. Drew Wilson and Dorrian Williams are back to mix with Thurman and the crew: The two forgotten redshirts can really play. We all know about Thurman as well, and Marcus Marshall isn't bad in his own right. Bruce Marshall is a complete unknown because he played for a tiny school in mid-Missouri, but he can really play. This is a good, young group of players that Lusk has to work with.
4. Christian Kirk will be a lot better: A classic breakout candidate. Same with Pickens. They're ready to take the reigns, along with Anthony Downing.
5. This team was better than its record last year: MSU lost a lot of close games. A couple plays here and there, and this team is well above .500. Obviously, it's a completely different team this year, but it's proof Lusk is a decent coach at this juncture.
CONCLUSION: I like Lusk. I like what he's doing, I like the way his team plays and I like his group of newcomers. This team will need to play a completely different style without Weems, so maybe that's to its advantage. Weems is probably the toughest, most admirable star to come through this league in a long time, but he took a lot of shots last year and couldn't shoulder the load after his whole 2011 starting lineup departed. Things should be a lot more balanced this year. Just depends on a few things: Downing growing into a leadership role, the improvement of Kirk/Pickens and the contributions from the newcomers.