If Wichita Left.... (RPI Talk)

[Redbirdgrad]

*DISCLAIMER, LONG POST, BUT LENGTH NECESSARY DUE TO AMOUNT OF DATA*

We had a decent back and forth on this, and I finally carved out some time to look at numbers. I analyzed the Valley for 4 years pre Creighton leaving, and the 4 years we've had of data now that they've gone. I looked at the RPI drop from them, and what would happen if Wichita left. How could we replace them and still maintain our conference RPI rank, etc. Below are the findings.

Creighton Era: 2009-2010 season - 2012-2013 season
Loyola Era: 2013-2014 season - 2016-2017 partial season

Creighton Era:
Conference RPI rank: 9, 12, 8, 9 (9.50 average)
Conference RPI rating: .5368, .5118, .5316, .5336 (.5284 average)

Loyola Era:
Conference RPI rank: 11, 12, 13, 12 (12.0 average)
Conference RPI rating: .5117, .5115, .4978, .5073 (.5071 average)

Analysis: Creighton leaving and being replaced with Loyola was the primary cause of a decrease of .0213 to our conference RPI. This was enough to cause the drop from an average of 9.5 ranking to 12.0.

REMOVING WICHITA:
When we remove Wichita, we have to use the most recent 4 years of data only as to get the years with Loyola in there. The 4 year means aren't that different from the 8 year, so that isn't a big deal.

Loyola Era MVC RPI 2016-2017 With Wichita: .5073
Loyola Era MVC RPI 2016-2017 Without Wichita: .5010
13th Best RPI Conference 2016-2017: .4951 (Sun Belt)
15th Best RPI Conference 2016-2017: .4898 (Southern)

Using the incomplete 2016-2017 average RPI's of every team in the Valley, minus Wichita's, we're still the 12th best conference in the nation. But what happens when we throw another team in there as the MVC will add a team to replace them? This data is found by having the other 9 teams perform at their 4 year average RPI rating...

Lowest RPI Team Added for MVC to remain in 12th: Western Michigan - 257, .4444
Lowest RPI Team Added for MVC to remain in 15th: Delaware State - 334, .3871

Analysis: As long as the Valley adds a team better than Western Michigan, we don't drop below 12th... using this year's RPIs. For the MVC to fall as low as 16th, we have to add in a team like Delaware State or worse.

But what about the 4 year average? This is a down year in terms of RPI for Wichita...

Loyola Era MVC Average RPI With Wichita: .5071
Loyola Era MVC Average RPI Without Wichita: .4964
13th Best RPI Conference 2016-2017: .4951 (Sun Belt)
15th Best RPI Conference 2016-2017: .4898 (Southern)

Looking at the past 4 years, the MVC has averaged .5071 RPI rating with Wichita, and .4964 without. The .4964 is still better than the 13th ranked conference. What happens when we add a team?

Lowest RPI Team Added for MVC to remain in 12th: Coastal Carolina - 191, .4845
Lowest RPI Team Added for MVC to remain in 15th: Campbell - 275, .4316

Analysis: As long as we add a team better than Coastal Carolina's RPI rating of .4845, we stay in 12th as a conference. We have to add a school worse than Campbell's .4316 to drop all the way to 16th.


Final Analysis: While losing Wichita from the Valley would be a blow for sure, it's not the end of the world using today's RPI metric. Now, the RPI is a dinosaur and will be replaced hopefully soon, but when looking at it through these glasses, the MVC doesn't fall far as a conference. Granted, that's more to due with the conferences below it being very bad than anything about the MVC. The fall we saw when we lost Creighton is because competition is tight for the 8-12 spots... but not so much after 12. Falling to 16? Not a chance.

[Cdizzle]

This is an interesting look, but I'm not sure you've done nearly enough math.

How is league RPI calculated?

[BirdsEyeView]

Your "sidekick" is very impressed. Not only with the post, but the time and commitment it took to put this together.

Well done.

[RoyalShock]

That's a pretty good analysis, though I didn't read it verbatim.

The real questions are:

1. Will the MVC, sans WSU, have an at-large worthy team every year?
2. If not, will the coaching level continue to decline?
2b. If so, how that affect the ability to recruit better players to become at-large worthy?

[Redbirdgrad]

This is an interesting look, but I'm not sure you've done nearly enough math.

How is league RPI calculated?

Well, there's a weight to it, given the number of games a team has played, etc. I took simple averages, and didn't see enough difference to change any of the analysis at any step.

What other math would you like to see?

[Redbirdgrad]

That's a pretty good analysis, though I didn't read it verbatim.

The real questions are:

1. Will the MVC, sans WSU, have an at-large worthy team every year?
2. If not, will the coaching level continue to decline?
2b. If so, how that affect the ability to recruit better players to become at-large worthy?

These are good questions, but the topic at hand was Wichita leaving and it's impact on the RPI. Let's try and stay on topic here. I created this to pull it out of the thread it had derailed previously.

Coaching is a completely different animal, and the Valley has had at large candidates when Wichita was near the bottom so... I don't think there's a strong correlation there.

[Cdizzle]

This is an interesting look, but I'm not sure you've done nearly enough math.

How is league RPI calculated?

Well, there's a weight to it, given the number of games a team has played, etc. I took simple averages, and didn't see enough difference to change any of the analysis at any step.

What other math would you like to see?

Just curious how league RPI is calculated. For example, Drake's RPI has probably been 30 spots better the past few seasons from taking two losses to a Top 15 RPI WSU team than if they had not played that team at all. Which in turn helps the ISUb team they play, which in turn......

Backing teams out of some of the calculations, and then replacing them with a different team can be fairly difficult. I'm not saying your numbers are wrong, just curious how you got them.

[Redbirdgrad]

Just curious how league RPI is calculated. For example, Drake's RPI has probably been 30 spots better the past few seasons from taking two losses to a Top 15 RPI WSU team than if they had not played that team at all. Which in turn helps the ISUb team they play, which in turn......

Backing teams out of some of the calculations, and then replacing them with a different team can be fairly difficult. I'm not saying your numbers are wrong, just curious how you got them.

Drake's RPI the last 8 years (oldest first):

.4969
.4672
.5193
.5136
.4935
.4476
.4020
.4373

Average RPI rating: .4722
Creighton ERA: .4993
Loyola ERA: .4451

Looks like Creighton had a lot to do with the RPI drop of Creighton, right? Not really.

Evansville Average RPI rating: .5062
Creighton ERA: .5046
Loyola ERA: .5077

Creighton left and Evansville's RPI has been better these past 4 years than the previous 4.

Even though you play a team twice a year, it has a very minute impact on the final RPI of a team. Take a look at the bottom of any team on RPIforecast.com and you'll see the impact each individual team has on another. It's pretty small. So pulling a Wichita out of your schedule twice a year isn't a huge deal as long as you don't replace it with a 300 level team.

Regarding your question on conference RPI, I literally took the simple average of the conference teams RPI's for that year. Can't help you much more than that. It's off maybe in the hundredths column if there were vast differences in games played, but not much more than that.

[Cdizzle]

Even though you play a team twice a year, it has a very minute impact on the final RPI of a team. Take a look at the bottom of any team on RPIforecast.com and you'll see the impact each individual team has on another. It's pretty small. So pulling a Wichita out of your schedule twice a year isn't a huge deal as long as you don't replace it with a 300 level team.

My point is that you aren't merely pulling WSU (or Creighton) out of 2 games on your schedule. You're also pulling them out of 2 games for 8 other teams you play twice on your schedule, plus at least one more in St. Louis. It directly effects either your opponents' record or your opponents'-opponents' record for 19 games each year. That can add up. I'm not arguing your conclusions. Just curious on the math you've used. It can be done, but it takes more than just running some averages.

Your example is poor, comparing Drake and Evansville, and perhaps even illustrates my point.

Drake has been consistently sucky for 8 years, and you can notice the contrast between pre and post Creighton.

Evansville was an emprically better team over more recent years, so the difference in numbers is negated by their own team improvement.

Drake was a more constant level of team, and the impact of the loss is noticeable in their numbers.

[AndShock]

Replacing WSU with Western Michigan drops Drake's RPI 40 spots. That seems like it would have a large domino effect throughout the conference.