O/U - number of NCAA tourney teams from Valley

by **Red** » December 19th, 2017, 2:07 pm

I'll set the number at 1.5

Will the MVC have 1 bid this year or multiple bids?

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by **SalukiHoops** » December 19th, 2017, 2:10 pm

Red wrote:I'll set the number at 1.5

Will the MVC have 1 bid this year or multiple bids?

After last season with two dominant teams and receiving one bid, I don't see how they get two this season.

by **BCPanther** » December 19th, 2017, 2:29 pm

I went two because UNI has a much, much better non-con resume that either Wichita or Illinois State had last year even with a loss to Xavier.

The problem is when UNI is good they tend to just win the Tournament anyway...

by **SalukiHoops** » December 19th, 2017, 2:31 pm

BCPanther wrote:I went two because UNI has a much, much better non-con resume that either Wichita or Illinois State had last year even with a loss to Xavier.

The problem is when UNI is good they tend to just win the Tournament anyway...

I'll take UNI in the con. tourney. They do seem to be the only at-large hope though.

by **musiccitybulldog** » December 19th, 2017, 2:50 pm

Of course you have the conference tourney champion a guaranteed bid.

If another team gets in, that team will have to have a near perfect conference season, then will have to have a close game in the tourney final. This team will have to get sufficient press also for not getting beat and having such a great year.

I can think of years when I thought Illinois State would go with a really good season/good conference season, but lost big at the conference tournament and didn't get the bid.

Seems when the Valley did get multiple teams in was before the day of P5 conferences getting so many teams in.

by **AndShock** » December 19th, 2017, 3:06 pm

BCPanther wrote:I went two because UNI has a much, much better non-con resume that either Wichita or Illinois State had last year even with a loss to Xavier.

The problem is when UNI is good they tend to just win the Tournament anyway...

UNI has a better resume but according to all advanced metrics they're also considerably worse than ISUr or WSU last year. UNI isn't going 16-2 against a much improved MVC, I don't even think 14-4 is likely and that's the bare minimum needed for an at-large.

by **BirdsEyeView** » December 19th, 2017, 3:38 pm

AndShock wrote:
BCPanther wrote:I went two because UNI has a much, much better non-con resume that either Wichita or Illinois State had last year even with a loss to Xavier.

The problem is when UNI is good they tend to just win the Tournament anyway...

UNI has a better resume but according to all advanced metrics they're also considerably worse than ISUr or WSU last year. UNI isn't going 16-2 against a much improved MVC, I don't even think 14-4 is likely and that's the bare minimum needed for an at-large.

by **bleach** » December 19th, 2017, 5:54 pm

There will be one MVC team in the dance. That doesn't mean there aren't scenarios where there should be 2 but there will be one.

by **Mikovio** » December 20th, 2017, 7:39 am

Valley gets 2 if

UNI wins 14 MVC games and loses the title game, or
Missouri State wins 15 MVC games and loses the title game, or
Loyola wins 16 MVC games and loses the title game.

by **Stickboy46** » December 20th, 2017, 9:14 am

BCPanther wrote:I went two because UNI has a much, much better non-con resume that either Wichita or Illinois State had last year even with a loss to Xavier.

The problem is when UNI is good they tend to just win the Tournament anyway...

I'm not buying the Much Much better resume ...

ISU 2017 per KenPom (RPI isn't really anywhere close to accurate yet)
A Games - 1-3 (2 losses to WSU)
B Games - 3-0
2 losses outside of those
17-1 in Conference

UNI 2018 per KenPom so Far
A Games 1-2
B Games 1-1
0 losses outside of those so far

The only A game left on the schedule is Xavier. Without that win ... ISUr had better results last year.

Only way I see UNI getting an At-Large is:
Beating Xavier and 14 wins, or 16 wins in conference plus championship game and the losses have to be to "B" level teams, no bottom dwellers.

I think any loss outside of the B teams kicks them out. The SMU win is really the only for sure tourney team win that UNI has or will get (unless the beat Xavier)

Also key to note ... Advanced Analytics will be factored in this year (no idea how much or how evenly) but UNI currently is 84th in KenPom. If they are using that ... it will push them out also.