2018 Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

by **Hacksaw** » January 25th, 2018, 11:36 am

Halfway through the conference season, it's a bit early to put much stock into these probabilities. However, for entertainment purposes, here they are:

**Sponsor**

by **PurpleAcesFootball** » January 25th, 2018, 11:54 am

So the projections show a team could win the regular season crown with 13 wins? I wonder what the lowest number of wins for a regular-season champion is?

That could really hurt NCAA seeding. Wow.

by **BCPanther** » January 25th, 2018, 12:14 pm

Just like we've all speculated.

Valpo and Evansville are playing Thursday. Loyola has the best shot at winning the league. 2-8 are a jumbled mess where nobody would be surprised by any order.

by **Hacksaw** » January 25th, 2018, 1:01 pm

For some charts overkill, here are each teams Thursday odds based on number of conference wins:

And here is each team's tournament seed odds per win count (from the last 10,000 simulations):

by **ahunte1** » January 25th, 2018, 2:01 pm

Hacksaw -- Do you use Sagarin because of its track record or something else? Just wondering if you know how it compares to other systems. Thanks as always for doing these charts.

by **Hacksaw** » January 25th, 2018, 2:38 pm

ahunte1 wrote:Hacksaw -- Do you use Sagarin because of its track record or something else? Just wondering if you know how it compares to other systems. Thanks as always for doing these charts.

I use Sagarin generally because this is how I set it up years ago and at the time I felt like it was generally considered one of the better ranking systems. I have no analysis of its predictive ability versus KenPom or Massey or BPI or any others. Additionally, since last year, the baseline forecasted RPI's that are inputted into the model (for tiebreaker purposes) are from rpiforecast.com and they use Sagarin's predictor rankings as well to derive those figures.

by **Redbirds4Life** » January 25th, 2018, 2:45 pm

This is depressing.....Dirty Dan and the boys need to figure it out quick

by **BirdsEyeView** » January 25th, 2018, 3:06 pm

Redbirds4Life wrote:This is depressing.....Dirty Dan and the boys need to figure it out quick

Depressing - yes. Surprising - no.

Hacksaw, love these you do. Appreciate it!

by **Redhawk** » January 25th, 2018, 3:57 pm

BirdsEyeView wrote:
Redbirds4Life wrote:This is depressing.....Dirty Dan and the boys need to figure it out quick

Depressing - yes. Surprising - no.

Hacksaw, love these you do. Appreciate it!

Regardless of the early injuries and the ineligibility of Copeland I am surprised that
half way through the year the Redbirds are playing this bad.

I thought they would be better on offense but how bad they are on defense
is shocking for a Muller coached team!

by **Majik45** » January 25th, 2018, 3:59 pm

It is definitely early, but this becomes the best thread the last 2-3 weeks of the season. Great work Hacksaw.