The MVC officially sucks this year

by **mvfcfan** » December 8th, 2018, 10:13 pm

Just calling it how it is. Hopefully someone can figure it out and maybe win a game in the NCAA tournament this year. Our teams are getting beat left and right. Heck we're even struggling against D2 programs. We're officially a one bid league this year and whoever wins Arch Madness will probably be lucky to get a 12 seed. Also adding Murray State and Belmont will not solve the issues. Wichita State left because no one could step their game up. If the MVC is to ever get good again then the current 10 schools need to step it up. Some are making progress, but outside of Loyola, no one has even been close to where they need to be for quite a while. Heck even UNI is struggling and they used to always be good. Basically everyone's goal this year is going to be staying out of Thursday to give themselves a chance.

**Sponsor**

by **freddycat68** » December 8th, 2018, 10:35 pm

Hard to argue with this. In a year when the 4 Illinois schools were supposed to lead the way, they have all disappointed. A post I saw earlier about SIU and Drake being the teams to beat--that has to be some kind of joke. In this league right now, THERE ARE NO "TEAMS TO BEAT." Drake's schedule is pitiful, SIU has wonderful bigs but can't find consistency. ISU is a mess. BU has some good wins but even worse losses. Everyone else is seesawing between decent and awful game by game. Ugh.

by **VUGrad1314** » December 8th, 2018, 11:32 pm

Couple things: SIU entered play with an RPI of 41 and an SOS of 48. They're 7-3 and their only glaring resume hole is the margin of loss vs UMASS. They have beaten SLU and Tulsa. Those are good wins. SLU has beaten Seton Hall which has wins over Miami and Kentucky and Butler who has wins over Florida and Ole Miss. Tulsa for their part has taken down Oklahoma State and Kansas State in back to back games. The Salukis still have Murray State Buffalo and Winthrop on their schedule. If they can go 3-0 (a big ask I know) they'll enter conference play with tournament ready metrics and a strong collection of wins.

Drake's big opportunities are still ahead of them. Their RPI (56) is getting there but their SOS (198) is not. HOWEVER they still have Iowa State New Mexico State and one of Washington State\San Diego, so their SOS is about to jump considerably and so will their RPI if they win. They'll still probably have a tough road unless they dominate MVC play.

Indiana State's opportunities are still ahead of them ( TCU Colorado and 2 more games as part of the MTE). Their RPI of 88 and their SOS of 123 aren't there but if they do well in their MTE and in MVC play they could possibly play onto the bubble.

A lot has to go right and it's probably going to have to come from these 3 especially SIU but I don't think we're mathematically out of the multibid discussion just yet.

by **MissouriValleyUnite** » December 8th, 2018, 11:44 pm

Ahead of MWC & A10 (for now) but 11th.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencerpi

Where the expectation/reality disparity comes from is ISUr/Loyola. Loyola we overlooked the fact they have 3 upperclassmen because they went to the Final 4. Cyclically, this performance should be expected.

The surprise is ILST (to this point) having the most disappointing OOC season in recent memory. A senior laden team whose talent on paper equaled Paris Lee’s team. Few could’ve predicted half their Returning Big 4 - Evans & Tinsley - would regress into replacement level players or their defense would be this bad.

Drake and Loyola cancel each other out. If ILST played like the 58th team instead of 188th, conference RPI is 9th.

Laugh away, but Southern and Drake are the two playing a step above everyone. Drake has incredible ball movement with Nick Norton auditioning for this year’s Clayton Custer. Gotta shore up defensively. Who knows, it could all blow up for the Bulldogs while the Redbirds round into midseason form but can only comment on the season to-date.

by **jsaluki080** » December 9th, 2018, 2:55 am

MissouriValleyUnite wrote:Ahead of MWC & A10 (for now) but 11th.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencerpi.

Wow, the southern conference is ahead of us, but we’re still somehow ahead of the A10 and MW. Strange year. Never would’ve called that.

by **VUGrad1314** » December 9th, 2018, 6:58 am

I'm also surprised by how well and especially how quickly the rest of the WCC responded after Gonzaga put the fear of God into them with their serious dance with the Mountain West? Can you imagine if Gonzaga had moved? The WCC probably wouldn't be ahead of us but the MWC most likely would be. We also probably lose the challenge if they participate.

by **BEARZ77** » December 9th, 2018, 7:09 am

VUGrad1314 wrote:Couple things: SIU entered play with an RPI of 41 and an SOS of 48. They're 7-3 and their only glaring resume hole is the margin of loss vs UMASS. They have beaten SLU and Tulsa. Those are good wins. SLU has beaten Seton Hall which has wins over Miami and Kentucky and Butler who has wins over Florida and Ole Miss. Tulsa for their part has taken down Oklahoma State and Kansas State in back to back games. The Salukis still have Murray State Buffalo and Winthrop on their schedule. If they can go 3-0 (a big ask I know) they'll enter conference play with tournament ready metrics and a strong collection of wins.

Drake's big opportunities are still ahead of them. Their RPI (56) is getting there but their SOS (198) is not. HOWEVER they still have Iowa State New Mexico State and one of Washington State\San Diego, so their SOS is about to jump considerably and so will their RPI if they win. They'll still probably have a tough road unless they dominate MVC play.

Indiana State's opportunities are still ahead of them ( TCU Colorado and 2 more games as part of the MTE). Their RPI of 88 and their SOS of 123 aren't there but if they do well in their MTE and in MVC play they could possibly play onto the bubble.

A lot has to go right and it's probably going to have to come from these 3 especially SIU but I don't think we're mathematically out of the multibid discussion just yet.

You're forgetting that RPI is simply a comparative tool; SIU has a NET in the 70's and Drakes is over a 100. Both have some games that could improve that, but then the MVC schedule offers little chance for the type of wins necessary to be of much help sustaining a low NET. It's obviously the first year of the NET, but my guess is in the end it'll be similar to RPI in that if you're not in the 30's or lower, or otherwise have a large # of level 1 wins, you're in trouble.

by **just ducky** » December 9th, 2018, 4:32 pm

jsaluki080 wrote:
MissouriValleyUnite wrote:Ahead of MWC & A10 (for now) but 11th.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencerpi.

Wow, the southern conference is ahead of us, but we’re still somehow ahead of the A10 and MW. Strange year. Never would’ve called that.

The league still has some time for OOC redemption but not much.

To date Evansville and Drake are the most pleasant surprises with Loyola, Bradley, ISU-red, and VU falling far short of (my) expectations.

I think kenpom gives the best reading of how we might actually stand.

SIU 90
Loyola 92
Bradley 127
ISU-bl 140
ISU-rd 153
VU 158
Drake 172
Northern Iowa 179
Evansville 208 (prior to Ball St win)
MSU 210

So what do we do if everybody finishes at 9-9 in MVC play? Start over?

by **isumvc1** » December 9th, 2018, 5:09 pm

well, lots of unknowns for the Sycamores, we have two grad transfers who can begin playing next Sunday when we play at TCU (7-1), then it's off to Hawaii for a game against Colorado (7-1), then a game vs either UNLV (4-4) or Hawaii (5-4), then a final game in Hawaii vs either TCU (7-1), Rhode Island (4-3), Bucknell (4-3), or UNC Charlotte (2-5).

In our last 2 MTE's we finished 0-3 in each one. So hopefully we can get at least one win in Hawaii and end the 6 game MTE losing streak

So we'll see if ISU will be contenders or pretenders?

by **isumvc1** » December 9th, 2018, 6:18 pm

here are the best opportunities for each MVC team to get "good" wins until MVC play starts Jan 2nd

Indiana State
TCU
Colorado
Hawaii or UNLV
TCU (again) Rhode Island

Southern Illinois
Murray State
Buffalo

Drake
Iowa State
New Mexico State (nearly beat Kansas last night)
Washington State or San Diego

Northern Iowa
Iowa
Stony Brook

Valpo
Ball State
Texas A & M

Bradley
Georgia Southern (best team remaining on their schedule)

Missouri State
Arkansas State (best team remaining on their schedule)

Evansville
Murray State
UW Green Bay
Miami (ohio)

Loyola
St Joseph's

Illinois State
Central Florida

Not a lot of "signature" wins there, but some that would be considered good wins