Quest to avoid the PIG

by **Kyle@MOState** » January 16th, 2020, 10:57 am

While some teams are looking safe like UNI, Bradley, and Loyola... The rest of the teams will fight to avoid the dreaded Thursday night in St. Louis. Where as we all know, no team has gone on to win the tournament, or even a Friday game.

I think it's pretty clear at this point of the season that Evansville will be a Thursday night team. Who are your picks to play Thursday night?

I think it will be Evansville, SIU, Illinois State, and it will most likely come down to either Missouri State or Valpo.

**Sponsor**

by **achrist70** » January 16th, 2020, 11:05 am

Evansville (dumpster fire)
Illinois State (still not sure how they beat UNI)
SIU (much more competitive then expected)
Missouri State (talent is there but not chemistry or coaching)

Valpo or Indiana State are the two that could possibly fall into Thursday night, but I think both of those teams are much more complete then Missouri State. Missouri State probably can't afford to get rid of Dana Ford, but if things are not figured out it would probably be in their best interest.

by **Saluki 4 Life** » January 16th, 2020, 11:41 am

I started the year resigned to the fact the Salukis will be playing Thursday and I am no longer sure of that. I think at 0-5 Evansville is done. As for the other three I would say ILL ST, SIU and Valpo... As an SIU fan my eyes are on Missouri State and Indiana State as the teams to pass to get out of Thursday which I find way more possible now than I did a month ago. Who knows. Valley is crazy.

One thing is for sure, given the talent Ford has had for the last 2 years his team have dramatically underachieved.

by **Kyle@MOState** » January 16th, 2020, 11:55 am

Saluki 4 Life wrote:I started the year resigned to the fact the Salukis will be playing Thursday and I am no longer sure of that. I think at 0-5 Evansville is done. As for the other three I would say ILL ST, SIU and Valpo... As an SIU fan my eyes are on Missouri State and Indiana State as the teams to pass to get out of Thursday which I find way more possible now than I did a month ago. Who knows. Valley is crazy.

One thing is for sure, given the talent Ford has had for the last 2 years his team have dramatically underachieved.

Underachieved this year for sure, but Missouri State was picked to finish last or next to last in 18-19, and they tied for 3rd. I did not think they would be in a spot where I was just hoping that the Bears would avoid Thursday night, but here we are. It feels like the Lusk years all over again.

by **chitown fanatic** » January 16th, 2020, 1:13 pm

I have no idea how Valpo has risen from the ashes of last off season. An amazing job by the staff there. Here is how I see it playing out:
1)UNI
2)BU
3)Trees
4)Loyola
5)Drake
6)MSU
7)Valpo
8)SIU
9)ISU Red
10)UE

by **Majik45** » January 16th, 2020, 1:59 pm

Evansville is a lock for sure at 0-5. Sorry, they aren't pulling a resurrection like Bradley did last year starting 0-5.

Illinois State can't win a road game, so they are next on my book. They aren't talented enough to win them all at home, so they are in the play in game as well. They will beat some teams at home (like UNI game).

SIU will give teams fits at times because Mullins has them playing great D. They are just too young though at this point, so they will probably be here, but have an outside chance of getting out.

I think the battle for the last spot comes down to MSU and Valpo. MSU should not be here with their talent, but they don't play together at all. Valpo has been the pleasant surprise of the Valley so they have a chance to get out as well. One of these solid teams will be playing Thursday.

Honestly, an injury to a key player on ISUb and/or Drake could put them in danger. Or if they get some bad luck like teams hitting half court shots at the buzzer to beat them. It could cause a messy tie breaker situation that drops one of them there. Sorry, not sorry to bring up that wound for ISUr fans from last year.

by **BCPanther** » January 16th, 2020, 2:07 pm

Majik45 wrote:Evansville is a lock for sure at 0-5. Sorry, they aren't pulling a resurrection like Bradley did last year starting 0-5.

Illinois State can't win a road game, so they are next on my book. They aren't talented enough to win them all at home, so they are in the play in game as well. They will beat some teams at home (like UNI game).

SIU will give teams fits at times because Mullins has them playing great D. They are just too young though at this point, so they will probably be here, but have an outside chance of getting out.

I think the battle for the last spot comes down to MSU and Valpo. MSU should not be here with their talent, but they don't play together at all. Valpo has been the pleasant surprise of the Valley so they have a chance to get out as well. One of these solid teams will be playing Thursday.

Honestly, an injury to a key player on ISUb and/or Drake could put them in danger. Or if they get some bad luck like teams hitting half court shots at the buzzer to beat them. It could cause a messy tie breaker situation that drops one of them there. Sorry, not sorry to bring up that wound for ISUr fans from last year.

I'd put Illinois State as a lock as well. They played one AMAZING half at the right time to beat UNI but haven't shown the ability to play anywhere near that level at any other point in the season.

You're dead on. Whoever loses the inevitible tie breaker between Valpo and MSU, SIU, Illinois State and Evansville are the 4.

This is kind of reminiscent of the mid-2000s where we got legitimate separation between the top and bottom.

by **VUGrad1314** » January 16th, 2020, 2:20 pm

chitown fanatic wrote:I have no idea how Valpo has risen from the ashes of last off season. An amazing job by the staff there. Here is how I see it playing out:
1)UNI
2)BU
3)Trees
4)Loyola
5)Drake
6)MSU
7)Valpo
8)SIU
9)ISU Red
10)UE

There was a consensus that every loss or potential loss was survivable except JFL. If JFL had left we would have been the worst team in the conference by a good margin. Some losses hurt more than others but Evelyn bogged down the offense something fierce Golder was exciting and could carry teams for stretches but didn't always make the smartest plays. I was iffy on whether losing him would hurt or not and both centers were like playing 4 on 5 on one side of the ball or the other (Smits on defense and Sorolla on offense If we could have combined them we would have had the best center in all of mid major basketball) Of the two I'd say we miss Sorolla slightly more but these guys (except JFL) were all recruited to play in the HL not the MVC. Remember, we had two transfers (Eron Gordon and Nick Robinson neither of whom have been quite as good as we expected I grant you) waiting in the wings. When JFL decided to come back,it secured our immediate and short term future and gave us something to build on. As long as he stays, there is hope that we can build a contender. This UNI game showed us how close we are to doing just that and I hope JFL and the rest of the team sees that and stays together long enough to see it happen. We're sure hungry for some real success in this new league and the building blocks are there for it.

by **VUGrad1314** » January 16th, 2020, 2:26 pm

BCPanther wrote:
Majik45 wrote:Evansville is a lock for sure at 0-5. Sorry, they aren't pulling a resurrection like Bradley did last year starting 0-5.

Illinois State can't win a road game, so they are next on my book. They aren't talented enough to win them all at home, so they are in the play in game as well. They will beat some teams at home (like UNI game).

SIU will give teams fits at times because Mullins has them playing great D. They are just too young though at this point, so they will probably be here, but have an outside chance of getting out.

I think the battle for the last spot comes down to MSU and Valpo. MSU should not be here with their talent, but they don't play together at all. Valpo has been the pleasant surprise of the Valley so they have a chance to get out as well. One of these solid teams will be playing Thursday.

Honestly, an injury to a key player on ISUb and/or Drake could put them in danger. Or if they get some bad luck like teams hitting half court shots at the buzzer to beat them. It could cause a messy tie breaker situation that drops one of them there. Sorry, not sorry to bring up that wound for ISUr fans from last year.

I'd put Illinois State as a lock as well. They played one AMAZING half at the right time to beat UNI but haven't shown the ability to play anywhere near that level at any other point in the season.

You're dead on. Whoever loses the inevitible tie breaker between Valpo and MSU, SIU, Illinois State and Evansville are the 4.

This is kind of reminiscent of the mid-2000s where we got legitimate separation between the top and bottom.

I agree I think it's borderline whether Valpo avoids Thursday or not. I sure hope we do because that will be big for our program moving forward and possibly help us keep our team together where we could really contend next year. The nice thing though is that each team in the Thursday conversation you can make an argument is a rising team right now. UE will be good if they can retain their talent and get the right coach who can keep his nose clean. You can see what Mullins is building in Carbondale. Despite not being very talented that team fights and gets after you. They look like Valpo two years ago right now and you see the potential Valpo has. ISUr has some talent and it looks like they have some serious talent coming in. I've already talked about Valpo and my goodness can Dana Ford recruit. That team is super talented but can Ford coach them up and get them to play together as a cohesive team? Time will tell. One thing is for sure, the Valley looks to be in a good place with good times ahead. Go MVC!

by **Majik45** » January 16th, 2020, 2:44 pm

Kyle@MOState wrote:While some teams are looking safe like UNI, Bradley, and Loyola... The rest of the teams will fight to avoid the dreaded Thursday night in St. Louis. Where as we all know, no team has gone on to win the tournament, or even a Friday game.

Just to clarify, there has been PIG team to win a 2nd game in Arch Madness. Bradley in 1998 was the #7 seed, had to mount a huge comeback to beat a Terrible #10 Drake team in the PIG. They they went on to beat #2 Creighton the next day before completely running out of gas in the 2nd half of a game against #3 seed MSU.