The road to 2 NCAA bids

[MVCfans]

Terrific game yesterday between UNI-Loyola, but the outcome was probably not what Elgin and the league office desired. There is definitely a path for the MVC to get 2 NCAA bids, but it requires UNI to maintain the highest NET ranking possible. Every conference loss hurts to varying degrees.

Before yesterday's game, bracket matrix had UNI as a 10 seed meaning Panthers were comfortably in the NCAA field ahead of teams like WSU, Stanford, Virginia. It will be interesting to see how an OT loss at Loyola impacts that.

For the MVC to feel confident that we will receive two tournament bids:
1 - UNI needs to win final 4 regular season games (@ ISUb, SIU, UE, @DU)
2 - UNI cannot lose in the first round of the MVC tournament
3 - Loyola (or maybe Bradley) need to beat UNI in the Arch Madness final

It is certainly possible that either item 1 or 2 might not occur and UNI can still overcome it, although it would be very tenuous. It would probably would help if Colorado finished their season strong as that looks like UNI's signature win.

Should be an exciting last couple of weeks of Valley play.

[BCPanther]

Terrific game yesterday between UNI-Loyola, but the outcome was probably not what Elgin and the league office desired. There is definitely a path for the MVC to get 2 NCAA bids, but it requires UNI to maintain the highest NET ranking possible. Every conference loss hurts to varying degrees.

Before yesterday's game, bracket matrix had UNI as a 10 seed meaning Panthers were comfortably in the NCAA field ahead of teams like WSU, Stanford, Virginia. It will be interesting to see how an OT loss at Loyola impacts that.

For the MVC to feel confident that we will receive two tournament bids:
1 - UNI needs to win final 4 regular season games (@ ISUb, SIU, UE, @DU)
2 - UNI cannot lose in the first round of the MVC tournament
3 - Loyola (or maybe Bradley) need to beat UNI in the Arch Madness final

It is certainly possible that either item 1 or 2 might not occur and UNI can still overcome it, although it would be very tenuous. It would probably would help if Colorado finished their season strong as that looks like UNI's signature win.

Should be an exciting last couple of weeks of Valley play.

UNI only dropped 4 spots in the NET (to 39) and it solidifies Loyola as a Quad 2 loss.

The league's biggest problem is that Jake is 9-0 in StL as the 1 or 2 seed...

[chitown fanatic]

I think the saddest thing about all of this is just how few losses a valley school can have for at-large consideration compared to the Valley of the past. It used to be 7-8 losses overall was the threshold. Now it's probably 4 max in a 31 game schedule in the 10th ranked conf. in the country. I think thats absurdly harsh. Take Purdue for example...admittedly their schedule is much harder than any valley school but at 14-12, I just dont see the reason why theyre a lock and a 22-4 UNI is a bubble. Sure, theyre playing better opponents...but dont you also have to beat those opponents too?

[VUGrad1314]

That's the point of the 20 conference game schedules of the Big 10 ACC and soon to be the Big East and (probably) the AAC as well. When you're playing 18 20 22 Q1 games in the Big 10 or the Big East or the ACC then it really doesn't matter what your record is in them as long as you win 6-8 of them you're going to get in. It's not a fair system but I don't know what the best fix is when those schools won't even play us in their non-conference schedules outside of MTEs.

[Purple35]

NCAA isn't necessarily interested in what is fair. They are interested in the most profit, which isn't exactly an epiphany. They will take the 48 or so programs that meet their criteria and let the others fill in as they may. To be fair, if Purdue gets in, let me be the first to say ... can we play those guys?

I think UNI and LUC have enough horsepower to make the Sweet 16, depending on a break.

[scotte101]

NCAA isn't necessarily interested in what is fair. They are interested in the most profit, which isn't exactly an epiphany. They will take the 48 or so programs that meet their criteria and let the others fill in as they may. To be fair, if Purdue gets in, let me be the first to say ... can we play those guys?

I think UNI and LUC have enough horsepower to make the Sweet 16, depending on a break.

100% agree. The NCAA was never really about "fair" (and there's literally years of evidence of that on the selection committee and also hundreds of cases of where they obviously weren't interested in helping a player...but i digress), but the committee really stopped being "fair" when the Valley put 4 teams in (should have been 5...I'm a MSU homer and am still mad lol), and then send 2 to the Sweet 16 back in 06.

that was 06 wasn't it? pretty sure.

[Majik45]

that was 06 wasn't it? pretty sure.

It definitely was '06. Bradley fans remember it well as everyone questioned why Bradley was even in the field during the selection show. A week later, everyone knew why we were in the tournament.

[Adunk33]

I think the saddest thing about all of this is just how few losses a valley school can have for at-large consideration compared to the Valley of the past. It used to be 7-8 losses overall was the threshold. Now it's probably 4 max in a 31 game schedule in the 10th ranked conf. in the country. I think thats absurdly harsh. Take Purdue for example...admittedly their schedule is much harder than any valley school but at 14-12, I just dont see the reason why theyre a lock and a 22-4 UNI is a bubble. Sure, theyre playing better opponents...but dont you also have to beat those opponents too?

This is my biggest gripe with the NET. They will take a team a couple of games above .500, who has played 10-Q1 games (even if their record in those games is 1-9) over a team that is hypothetically 0-2 against Q1 and has 20+ wins and less than 6 losses.

The NCAA went to the NET because Mid-Majors figured out the RPI formula and had legitimate arguments, based on the NCAA grading metric (RPI) to get more bids to the tournament.

I'll equate it to playing a card game with my 4-year old nephew. He'll make rules at the start of the game, the minute he starts losing, he changes the rules to benefit him.

As long as the one of the largest pieces of the NET valued is games against Q1, leagues like ares are likely doomed to one, two bid max leagues. The key is to schedule Q1 teams at the start of the year, which is now harder with several P5 conferences going to 20-game conference seasons, and scheduling teams that are believed to have good seasons. Much easier said than done because you never know when a team is going to fall flat. I'm sure last season a couple of teams scheduled ILST for a chance at a "quality noncon win" and that sure didn't pan out for them. A strategy could be to schedule as many Q2 teams as possible to start the year and hope they make the leap.

[Dawgbit]

The NET ranking system is all about how much the NCAA "nets" from March Madness TV revenues.

[jackwagon]

NCAA isn't necessarily interested in what is fair. They are interested in the most profit, which isn't exactly an epiphany. They will take the 48 or so programs that meet their criteria and let the others fill in as they may. To be fair, if Purdue gets in, let me be the first to say ... can we play those guys?

I think UNI and LUC have enough horsepower to make the Sweet 16, depending on a break.

Yes to UNI, no way to LUC. Not enough shooters and no senior leadership. I actually think Bradley is the team that could make some noise in the tournament if they get a chance. I think best case UNI wins out to Sunday at STL and Bradley wins out all the way. I would think Bradley would get a 13 or 14 seed and a much better shot at pulling an upset. I would put them up against any of the middling Big Ten teams I've seen.