First place up for grabs....

by **Aces1982** » February 3rd, 2011, 10:01 am

Which team schedule would you rather have:

WSU
------
ISU-R
SIU
@UNI
@UE
CU
@MSU

MSU
-----
ISU-B
BU
@ISU-R
DU
@SIU
WSU

UNI
-----
@DU
@UE
WSU
@BU
ISU-B
@CU

MSU has the easiest road. I can see them running the table or maybe losing 1 more game. Gotta see how they bounce back.

WSU has three difficult road games and game against CU at home that will not be a walk in the park. They could lose 3 or 4 more.

UNI has only 2 home games left and 4 on the road. I could see them losing 2 or 3 more.

I think MSU is in the best position to win the league.

**Sponsor**

by **WSUbballer** » February 3rd, 2011, 11:54 am

Wow, it's a good thing we don't decide championships based on upcoming schedules. Wow 3 or 4 more losses for WSU? Might as well just give up and concentrate on St. Louis.

We should also take into consideration how teams are playing on the road and how well they are playing now.

I think we are finding out that there are no guarantees in this league. So trying to predict things on what you want some teams to do is far different than what actually may happen.

by **Snaggletooth** » February 3rd, 2011, 12:18 pm

Aces1982 wrote:
WSU has three difficult road games and game against CU at home that will not be a walk in the park. They could lose 3 or 4 more.

Probability of WSU losing 3 games in final 6 league games is 13.8%
Probability of WSU losing 4 games is 1.8%

I think MSU is in the best position to win the league.

So you think that the inability of MSU to close out games, UNI loss of O'Rear and another double-digit WSU road win means MSU is more than likely to win the conference?

Interesting thought process.

If you had predicted this before this weeks game I would have agreed. But with WSU win on the road against ISU(b) and MSU loss have changed the whole complexion of the race. Add in the loss of O'Rear for UNI.

UNI has a 53% probability of winning 4 games.
MSU has a 89% probability of winning 4 games.
WSU has a 87% probability of winning 4 games.

The tougher road for WSU means they have only a 15% chance of winning all their games while MSU is 21%. UNI is 4%.

by **MSUDuo** » February 3rd, 2011, 12:44 pm

WSUbballer wrote:Wow, it's a good thing we don't decide championships based on upcoming schedules. Wow 3 or 4 more losses for WSU? Might as well just give up and concentrate on St. Louis.

We should also take into consideration how teams are playing on the road and how well they are playing now.

I think we are finding out that there are no guarantees in this league. So trying to predict things on what you want some teams to do is far different than what actually may happen.

2 hours ago it wasn't impossible to think WSU could lose at UE, UNI, and MSU.

3 losses is what I thought we would have to this point in the season before conference play started. Didn't think it would be the 3 that we ended up having nor would we be playing like this at this point in time so I have no argument with you 2nd and 3rd statements.

I don't think anyone would choose to have WSU's or UNI's remaining schedule over MSU's, which is what I think his point meant because WSU is in the best position because they are in first by themselves.

by **Aces1982** » February 3rd, 2011, 1:05 pm

WSUbballer wrote:Wow, it's a good thing we don't decide championships based on upcoming schedules. Wow 3 or 4 more losses for WSU? Might as well just give up and concentrate on St. Louis.

We should also take into consideration how teams are playing on the road and how well they are playing now.

I think we are finding out that there are no guarantees in this league. So trying to predict things on what you want some teams to do is far different than what actually may happen.

Maybe we should go ahead and crown WSU now? Yes, WSU could lose 3-4 more. If you don't think you could lose @MSU and @UNI, btw don't know if you know this or not but both already beat you at your place, and possibly to UE then you need to take off your colorful yellow glasses. I also would not count CU as a for sure win. With that said, WSU could just as easily win all these games, I don't think so but they could.

We should take in consideration how teams are playing on the road? How about taking into consideration what teams you have left on the road and how they play at home. This is not the WSU road show, the other team gets a say so in the outcome. How many home losses does the three teams have combined?

I am not predicting things on how I want it to play out. If I did that, I would say WSU won't win a game the rest of the year.

by **Aces1982** » February 3rd, 2011, 1:12 pm

Snaggletooth wrote:
Aces1982 wrote:
WSU has three difficult road games and game against CU at home that will not be a walk in the park. They could lose 3 or 4 more.

Probability of WSU losing 3 games in final 6 league games is 13.8%
Probability of WSU losing 4 games is 1.8%

I think MSU is in the best position to win the league.

So you think that the inability of MSU to close out games, UNI loss of O'Rear and another double-digit WSU road win means MSU is more than likely to win the conference?

Interesting thought process.

If you had predicted this before this weeks game I would have agreed. But with WSU win on the road against ISU(b) and MSU loss have changed the whole complexion of the race. Add in the loss of O'Rear for UNI.

UNI has a 53% probability of winning 4 games.
MSU has a 89% probability of winning 4 games.
WSU has a 87% probability of winning 4 games.

The tougher road for WSU means they have only a 15% chance of winning all their games while MSU is 21%. UNI is 4%.

When I made the original post, The O'Rear post was not up and I knew nothing about him being lost for the season.

I am trying to figure out what has changed with MSU losing? I don't believe anything has changed. Both teams controlled their own destiny before the loss and both control it now. Bottom line is, if both win out then the last game will be the Championship. Before the MSU loss, the same was true.

Yes, MSU is more likely to win the conference with the remaining schedule. I don't think that is too hard to figure out and I would think most people, beside the Shocker faithfull, would agree.

by **WSUbballer** » February 3rd, 2011, 1:19 pm

I appreciate the truthfulness of your last sentence. That makes all of your carefully crafted comments more sensible.

As for Evansville, they could just as easily lose 4 of their last 6 and become tantalizingly close to Thursday night.

by **oneNEIGHBOR** » February 3rd, 2011, 1:28 pm

Tulsa moved into the top 100 in RPI. WSU now has one top 100 win. Evansville is 4 away from the top 100.

by **Aces1982** » February 3rd, 2011, 1:36 pm

WSUbballer wrote:I appreciate the truthfulness of your last sentence. That makes all of your carefully crafted comments more sensible.

As for Evansville, they could just as easily lose 4 of their last 6 and become tantalizingly close to Thursday night.

You are right they could lose 4 of the next 6. None of the games they have left is a guarantee win.

by **AndShock** » February 3rd, 2011, 1:39 pm

With each passing game I feel more and more confident about winning at SWOMO. Until the O'Rear injury, I didn't feel confident about winning at UNI. If we lose to SIU, Illinois State, Evansville, or Creighton, then we don't deserve the league or an at-large bid.