2017 Bracketology

by **MVCfans** » January 21st, 2017, 8:40 am

Never too early to start looking forward to March.

Joe Lunardi:
- Illinois State 11 seed vs St Marys in Milwaukee
winner vs 3 seed Creighton
- Wichita State - first four out

Jerry Palm:
Illinois State/Wichita State
These two lead the Missouri Valley, with the Redbirds a game in front due to their win over the Shockers on Saturday. Again this year, Wichita State is getting more love in the predictive computers than their actual accomplishment might indicate. However, this year, the Shockers have nothing to hang their hat on outside the league. They are 0-4 against the RPI top 100, which includes that loss to Illinois State and a home loss to Oklahoma State. Their best win is at Oklahoma.

Illinois State has that win over the Shockers and their best win after that is against New Mexico. They have only four losses, but three of them are bad losses to Tulsa, San Francisco and Murray State.

The problem this year is that the entire league is down. The only non-conference win over a top 50 RPI team in 18 tries is Indiana State's shocking victory over Butler. The Sycamores are the last place team in the conference. The Missouri Valley just isn't strong enough this season to build up an at-large team. So only one of these teams is likely to get in.

**Sponsor**

by **TheAsianSensation** » January 22nd, 2017, 9:19 am

I just kinda want to skip this year and roll over to next.

ISU's done a great job of bad game avoidance to build up the computer profile. Yet at the same time, they managed to avoid having an actual game with true quality win chances in it (depending on how you feel about TCU).

Wichita's non-con SoS is north of 200. Jeez, once you get past the fact that it's a fatal blow to them....it's comical how this fell apart:
South Dakota St's worst year in a very long time
Tulsa falling apart after their NCAA bid last year
Picking the wrong MEAC cupcakes as their overall records are terrible
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St in the trash can of the Big 12
Atlantis flaming up with Michigan St's worst year in forever and LSU being bad in general
Long Beach St getting foisted upon Wichita while having their usual terrible record
St Louis and rebuild mode
Getting stuck with Colorado St in the challenge

Before the season, if you would've picked a reasonable worst-case scenario for the non-con SoS.....just about every team on the schedule is at it.

by **Bradleyfan1** » January 22nd, 2017, 11:29 am

What a great time to be a Birds fan.

I think both get in. Because the game in Witch can go either way. I think the Birds play good enough D to run the table including Arch Madness . As long as the Shock don't lose to anyone other than the Birds including St Louis and the Championship is a thriller. Both get in.

by **Wufan** » January 22nd, 2017, 11:34 am

Bradleyfan1 wrote:What a great time to be a Birds fan.

I think both get in. Because the game in Witch can go either way. I think the Birds play good enough D to run the table including Arch Madness . As long as the Shock don't lose to anyone other than the Birds including St Louis and the Championship is a thriller. Both get in.

If only it were so...WSU would be 0-5 against the top 50 and 0-6 or 1-6 against the top 100 in that scenario.

by **BirdmanBB** » January 22nd, 2017, 12:00 pm

It's unfortunate that both Utah and ISU lost to San Fran in Hawaii. Utah would have been a great opponent to have on the resume.

by **Khan4Cats** » January 22nd, 2017, 12:17 pm

This year is very much looking at a one bid league. While I think both Wichita State and Illinois State are good enough to make some noise in the NCAA, there just isn't the meat to get both in. The rest of the league is a jumbled mess with no one really rising to be a challenge to the top two but all just good enough to beat each other. Wichita tried to schedule enough to be considered but didn't win their big games (Lou, Sparty) and the ones that should have provided at least decent numbers haven't proven to be as good (OU, OSU, even Tulsa, CSU and So Dak St were thought to have been decent). Illinois State had even less meat on their schedule and didn't get a road win except for Hawaii-who has not been anything this year.

by **BirdsEyeView** » January 22nd, 2017, 3:29 pm

BirdmanBB wrote:It's unfortunate that both Utah and ISU lost to San Fran in Hawaii. Utah would have been a great opponent to have on the resume.

Yes I agree, would have much rather lost to Utah than San Fran

by **Play Angry** » January 22nd, 2017, 4:49 pm

Too early to condemn the MVC to one bid status.

17-1 by each of ISUr and WSU, coupled with a Sunday showdown in St. Louis, gets both of them in (narrowly), IMO. Both teams would finish comfortably in the Top 50 in RPI (and likely Top ~25 in most other advanced metrics) under this scenario, and would provide just enough bulk to the Sunday loser's resume to squeak in.

If the Redbirds stay red hot and sweep WSU (finishing 18-0 or possibly 17-1 with an unexpected loss to another league peer), then stumble on championship Sunday in St. Louis, they would get in IMO.

A betting man should jump all over even odds that the MVC would receive just one bid (certainly less than 50/50 at this point). However, the chances of 2 teams sneaking in are not insignificant.

by **WSUFAN** » January 22nd, 2017, 8:17 pm

Play Angry wrote:Too early to condemn the MVC to one bid status.

17-1 by each of ISUr and WSU, coupled with a Sunday showdown in St. Louis, gets both of them in (narrowly), IMO. Both teams would finish comfortably in the Top 50 in RPI (and likely Top ~25 in most other advanced metrics) under this scenario, and would provide just enough bulk to the Sunday loser's resume to squeak in.

If the Redbirds stay red hot and sweep WSU (finishing 18-0 or possibly 17-1 with an unexpected loss to another league peer), then stumble on championship Sunday in St. Louis, they would get in IMO.

A betting man should jump all over even odds that the MVC would receive just one bid (certainly less than 50/50 at this point). However, the chances of 2 teams sneaking in are not insignificant.

Came to the sight to post my views and saw this. Total agreement. I agree from a betting perspective that you would side with one bid, but I have a feeling both ISU and WSU run the table, with WSU winning in Wichita and the loser provided it's not a blowout in the championship game finds themselves in Dayton.

by **shockem** » January 22nd, 2017, 9:30 pm

There's a real possibility that ISUr goes undefeated in league play and loses to WSU in the championship in St Louis. The proverbial shoe being on the other foot and we get 2 teams in once again. Two victories over WSU might be enough to elevate ISUr into an 8-9 seed. Not ideal for WSU but I could see this happening.