Arch madness seeding

[SubGod22]

Are MSU fans kinda hoping that they're in the PIG? It sounds like that would mean the end of Lusk.

We're in that terrible place where you love your school, you want to see your players taste success so rooting for a defeat is just not palatable, but even meager levels of success seem to encourage our administration towards stupidity in retaining Lusk. I think we root for wins, but don't agonize over defeats right now, and if it's going to be a defeat, then help us and blow us out of the gym. [ you probably will tonight]

I hear what you're saying. I just posted elsewhere that I feel bad for you guys and think you have most everything you need in place to be a successful program outside of leadership. And that doesn't seem to just be about the HC. The AD and maybe even your president are at fault for where you currently stand.

[Hacksaw]

With the discussion on what it takes to play/avoid Thursday in St. Louis, I put together this quick chart that shows the odds of playing on Thursday for each team given their respective potential conference win totals. The results are from the simulations and use today's Sagarin ratings and records.

As an example of how to interpret the chart, in simulations where Loyola finishes with 7 conference wins, 46% of the time this results in a 7-10 tournament seed.

[bleach]

Are MSU fans kinda hoping that they're in the PIG? It sounds like that would mean the end of Lusk.

You never want your team to fail but if Lusk would be gone, no one would cry if we lost out.

[Hacksaw]

Here is today's update:

[Stickboy46]

Here is today's update:

Come on Indiana State .. Grab that 1 possibility for 3rd!!!

[UNIFanSince1983]

After starting 0-5 we looked almost certain to be a PIG team for the first time under Jacobson. Now we only have a 2% chance of being a PIG team. And currently a 46% chance of being the 3 seed. Now considering we do have a game at WSU and home against ISUr left I am not holding my breath for the 3, but I think Top 5 is probably likely again at this point. Crazy season.

[Cdizzle]

After starting 0-5 we looked almost certain to be a PIG team for the first time under Jacobson. Now we only have a 2% chance of being a PIG team. And currently a 46% chance of being the 3 seed. Now considering we do have a game at WSU and home against ISUr left I am not holding my breath for the 3, but I think Top 5 is probably likely again at this point. Crazy season.

COY

[Redbirds4Life]

Here is today's update:

Tip of the cap to you sir, that is pretty awesome that you do that. Question for you, does it have the tiebreakers built into it? Like if ISU ties for 1st, they get it...or if UNI ties for 3rd, they get it?

[glm38]

Are MSU fans kinda hoping that they're in the PIG? It sounds like that would mean the end of Lusk.

We're in that terrible place where you love your school, you want to see your players taste success so rooting for a defeat is just not palatable, but even meager levels of success seem to encourage our administration towards stupidity in retaining Lusk. I think we root for wins, but don't agonize over defeats right now, and if it's going to be a defeat, then help us and blow us out of the gym. [ you probably will tonight]

I hear what you're saying. I just posted elsewhere that I feel bad for you guys and think you have most everything you need in place to be a successful program outside of leadership. And that doesn't seem to just be about the HC. The AD and maybe even your president are at fault for where you currently stand.

The MSU AD is absolutely clueless in regards to basketball. He made some totally idiotic statements in the paper (Springfield) yesterday regarding Lusk and Bears basketball.

He said that we (Bears ) are capable of beating anyone in the MVC. Last night says otherwise.
He also said Lusk isn't on the the hot seat this year. Not on the hot seat?? After 6 years without sniffing an ncaa bid and absolutely zero winning records in conference? Not to mention steadily falling attendance since Cuonzo left. Just ridiculous.

I never thought I would ever wish losses on the Bears. But I'm at the point where I am hoping things go further south just so that something will happen.

[LanceShock]

Out of curiosity, I did some quick probability calculations on whether IlSU will end up with at least 1 more loss than the WSU (since a tie or more WSU losses means IlSU gets the 1 seed). I ended up with a 50.9% chance that IlSU has at least one more loss than WSU using the final record probabilities from rpiforecast.com.

Note that it has been a while since I've done probability calculations and might have made a mistake.
EDIT: I just realized that I did. The probabilities on there for WSU haven't been updated to account for their victory last night. I tried to correct for that and I now get a 52.5% chance that WSU has one fewer loss than IlSU.