Bubble watch

[TheAsianSensation]

How tough is it for a good mid-major team to get a quality home game against a power conference team of value? A study.

A comprehensive list of true road games played by Power 6 teams, against midmajors.

I'm defining mid-majors as teams not in the top 9 conferences (Big 6 plus AAC, A-10, MWC).

24 total games:
Virginia @ UNC-Greensboro (Greensboro was slated to host a NCAA regional at time of scheduling)
Wake Forest @ UNC-Greensboro (Greensboro was slated to host a NCAA regional at time of scheduling)
Louisville @ Grand Canyon
Miami @ North Florida
North Carolina @ Hawaii (UNC played this game on the way to the Maui Inv.)
North Carolina @ Tulane
Oklahoma St @ Wichita St
Villanova @ Penn (part of the Big 5 tournament; this is a road game in name only)
St John's @ Tulane
Butler @ Indiana St
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Indiana @ IPFW
Ohio St @ Navy (season opener made-for-TV event highlighting the military)
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Auburn @ UAB
Georgia @ Oakland
Florida @ North Florida (Florida had its arena unavailable early part of the year)
Washington @ Gonzaga
Colorado @ BYU
USC @ San Diego
Colorado @ Portland
Washington @ Seattle
Oregon St @ Charlotte

Of those 24, we can easily throw out Gonzaga and Wichita St, who are well established. I also think BYU falls into this category. 2 ACC teams played games in the arena that was supposed to host 1st round games this week, so throw out those 2 games for G'boro. UNC played Hawaii on the way to Maui and Florida only played UNF on the road because of their unique stadium situation. Nova/Penn was part of the Big 5, OSU/Navy was contrived for TV.

Once you do all this, here is the list of road games. The list of legitimate road games, taken by a big school against a little school, with no outside influence to do so. These are the games where the teams willingly went on the road. 15 games:
Louisville @ Grand Canyon
Miami @ North Florida
North Carolina @ Tulane
St John's @ Tulane
Butler @ Indiana St
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Indiana @ IPFW
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Auburn @ UAB
Georgia @ Oakland
USC @ San Diego
Colorado @ Portland
Washington @ Seattle
Oregon St @ Charlotte

What's really **** is looking at preseason predictions. Grand Canyon is ineligible for psotseason...Tulane, Indiana St, IPFW, UAB, San Diego, Portland, Seattle, Charlotte were all expected to be awful. Non-entities.

So let's narrow the list further. Road games against mid-majors who were expected to be GOOD. Games where the power team was taking a legitimate risk. 5 games.

Miami @ North Florida
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Georgia @ Oakland

Now, Tennessee was expected to be bad, and Rutgers is Rutgers. Take them off the list.

Miami @ North Florida
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Georgia @ Oakland

Why is this list relevant? This is the list that is relevant to Dan Muller. He has a team with legit at-large hopes. He is looking for an opponent who can provide resume value. Of all the relevant power conference teams in the country, there were exactly 3 instances of a quality power team willingly scheduling a road game at a good mid-major team. And even in 2 of them, UNF and Oakland don't have realistic at-large hopes. If you narrow the list to road games played at mid-majors with realistic at-large hopes, you're down to one:

Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee

Now I did make the executive decision to remove Wichita, BYU, and Gonzaga from the list along the way...so you can add in a few more. But this point isn't about them. Wichita, while it can struggle to get teams...they did get Atlantis and both Oklahomas. They could use more, but they can get enough. The point is how to get these games when you're Illinois St.

[SubGod22]

Why did you include Tulane when they're a part of the 9 conferences you weren't including as mid-major? I know they suck, as you pointed out and ended up tossing anyway, but I'm not sure why you included them to begin with.

[TheAsianSensation]

Why did you include Tulane when they're a part of the 9 conferences you weren't including as mid-major? I know they suck, as you pointed out and ended up tossing anyway, but I'm not sure why you included them to begin with.

Oops, good point. I mean, in spirit they deserve to be included, right?

[Wufan]

How tough is it for a good mid-major team to get a quality home game against a power conference team of value? A study.

A comprehensive list of true road games played by Power 6 teams, against midmajors.

I'm defining mid-majors as teams not in the top 9 conferences (Big 6 plus AAC, A-10, MWC).

24 total games:
Virginia @ UNC-Greensboro (Greensboro was slated to host a NCAA regional at time of scheduling)
Wake Forest @ UNC-Greensboro (Greensboro was slated to host a NCAA regional at time of scheduling)
Louisville @ Grand Canyon
Miami @ North Florida
North Carolina @ Hawaii (UNC played this game on the way to the Maui Inv.)
North Carolina @ Tulane
Oklahoma St @ Wichita St
Villanova @ Penn (part of the Big 5 tournament; this is a road game in name only)
St John's @ Tulane
Butler @ Indiana St
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Indiana @ IPFW
Ohio St @ Navy (season opener made-for-TV event highlighting the military)
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Auburn @ UAB
Georgia @ Oakland
Florida @ North Florida (Florida had its arena unavailable early part of the year)
Washington @ Gonzaga
Colorado @ BYU
USC @ San Diego
Colorado @ Portland
Washington @ Seattle
Oregon St @ Charlotte

Of those 24, we can easily throw out Gonzaga and Wichita St, who are well established. I also think BYU falls into this category. 2 ACC teams played games in the arena that was supposed to host 1st round games this week, so throw out those 2 games for G'boro. UNC played Hawaii on the way to Maui and Florida only played UNF on the road because of their unique stadium situation. Nova/Penn was part of the Big 5, OSU/Navy was contrived for TV.

Once you do all this, here is the list of road games. The list of legitimate road games, taken by a big school against a little school, with no outside influence to do so. These are the games where the teams willingly went on the road. 15 games:
Louisville @ Grand Canyon
Miami @ North Florida
North Carolina @ Tulane
St John's @ Tulane
Butler @ Indiana St
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Indiana @ IPFW
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Auburn @ UAB
Georgia @ Oakland
USC @ San Diego
Colorado @ Portland
Washington @ Seattle
Oregon St @ Charlotte

What's really **** is looking at preseason predictions. Grand Canyon is ineligible for psotseason...Tulane, Indiana St, IPFW, UAB, San Diego, Portland, Seattle, Charlotte were all expected to be awful. Non-entities.

So let's narrow the list further. Road games against mid-majors who were expected to be GOOD. Games where the power team was taking a legitimate risk. 5 games.

Miami @ North Florida
Rutgers @ Stony Brook
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Tennessee @ East Tennessee St
Georgia @ Oakland

Now, Tennessee was expected to be bad, and Rutgers is Rutgers. Take them off the list.

Miami @ North Florida
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee
Georgia @ Oakland

Why is this list relevant? This is the list that is relevant to Dan Muller. He has a team with legit at-large hopes. He is looking for an opponent who can provide resume value. Of all the relevant power conference teams in the country, there were exactly 3 instances of a quality power team willingly scheduling a road game at a good mid-major team. And even in 2 of them, UNF and Oakland don't have realistic at-large hopes. If you narrow the list to road games played at mid-majors with realistic at-large hopes, you're down to one:

Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee

Now I did make the executive decision to remove Wichita, BYU, and Gonzaga from the list along the way...so you can add in a few more. But this point isn't about them. Wichita, while it can struggle to get teams...they did get Atlantis and both Oklahomas. They could use more, but they can get enough. The point is how to get these games when you're Illinois St.

Very interesting! This should be on cbssports.com

[BirdsEyeView]

Somebody email that out (edit for Tulane) and send it to ESPN, CBS, Sports Illustrated.

The Muller tweet has gotten him on SportsCenter, etc. Ride the wave with this data!

[SubGod22]

Why did you include Tulane when they're a part of the 9 conferences you weren't including as mid-major? I know they suck, as you pointed out and ended up tossing anyway, but I'm not sure why you included them to begin with.

Oops, good point. I mean, in spirit they deserve to be included, right?

Things get dicey when we go that route. There are a lot of mids in the top 9.

[TheAsianSensation]

Why did you include Tulane when they're a part of the 9 conferences you weren't including as mid-major? I know they suck, as you pointed out and ended up tossing anyway, but I'm not sure why you included them to begin with.

Oops, good point. I mean, in spirit they deserve to be included, right?

Things get dicey when we go that route. There are a lot of mids in the top 9.

I know, but I also ran into a lot of Mountain West teams (who were supposed to be better), SMU, and UConn. Plus the A-10 whose middle does a great job of being RPI 75-125 each year. Remember a small part of the RPI is opponents' SoS...and the AAC, A-10, and Mountain West generally provide an advantage there that the MVC does not.

I do think I need to refine that list and get a 2nd draft. It's worthy of a deeper dive. But I think the general point remains that quality games against quality competition at home are not very accessible.

[SubGod22]

None of that changes the general point of what you laid out. If you want a home game from a power conference school you basically have to suck or maintain a level of success for a number of years.

[TheAsianSensation]

One myth that I will debunk: that the NCAA scheduled Dayton/Wichita and St Mary's/VCU on purpose. Nah, there's logic behind those pairings.

The 4 spots for 7 and 10 seeds in the bracket:

Midwest (Indianapolis)
South (Indianapolis)
West (Salt Lake City)
East (Greenville)

The 7 line, in order: St Mary's, South Carolina, Michigan, Dayton
The 10 line, in order: Oklahoma St, Wichita St, Marquette, VCU

On the 7 line:
- St Mary's to the West and SLC is easy
- South Carolina is next, and Greenville is an obvious fit for them
- Michigan and Dayton are next, for the two Indianapolis sites. Michigan gets the Midwest and Dayton the South regional based on geography

On the 10 line:
- Oklahoma St: it's close, but Indianapolis is their preferred site among the 3. OSU gets the Indy spot in the Midwest over the South
- Wichita St: it's close too, but Indy is their preferred site too, so they get the South spot
- Marquette is next. Greenville is better than SLC for them
- VCU ends up going to Salt Lake City, as the worst 10 seed they get the worst geographic draw

So according to the committee's rules, these matchups make sense. If you believe the committee manipulated these draws, then you think the committee altered the S-Curve to make this happen. And if you think that, then you're accusing the committee on doing some pretty advanced mathematical tricks to cover their tracks. Which means you're assuming they're competent. Which we know by definition isn't true.

[Wufan]

Why not flip OSU to the South and WSU to the Midwest?