by VUGrad1314 » December 30th, 2017, 12:56 am
That would be incredible for the Mountain West and would absolutely force the AAC to raid the A10 for the likes of Dayton VCU Richmond and Rhode Island just to maintain its strength. I have to believe that Dayton would take an invitation to the AAC before the MVC, especially if one or more of its A10 rivals goes that route with them. I also think the Mountain West is third on the list of considerations for Gonzaga behind the Big East and the AAC. But here are the scenarios I see as possible for this realignment:
Don't overestimate the complications of football or count out the Big 12. They can provide the cleanest simplest most desirable solution for both UCONN and BYU by simply admitting them as full members. Under this scenario the Big East does nothing while the AAC has two options:
1. Admit Liberty as a full member or
2. Admit Army (football only) and find a basketball only member looking to make a jump Since the loss of UCONN constitutes a major blow to the brand I don't believe that anyone below the level of Gonzaga\VCU\Dayton would be considered. They might even take all three
NMSU could be another option as a full member for the AAC as well though they could very well jump to the WCC along with GCU as that conference would be in serious need of quality if BYU and Gonzaga both defect
If the Big East does not expand and the A-10 loses one or more members (particularly if one of these schools is Dayton) SLU becomes an option for the Valley.
Just like with NMSU it will be hard to get UCONN to another conference because of FBS Football but if they can't find a willing conference association I'm sure they'd just let the football program be an FBS Independent. This appears to be the solution NMSU has adopted at least for next year. But the primary goal will be finding a permanent FBS home.
Let's suppose UCONN joins the Big East and chooses to go independent in football The Big East then has two choices:
1. Stay at 11 and keep the double round robin
2. Pick up a 12th member
Although I believe that option 1 is far more likely I'll entertain option 2. If the Big East is seeking a 12th member I have to believe that that member would have to be a team that moves the needle from a basketball standpoint and\or opens up a new market. The only schools that fit the criteria are Dayton VCU and Gonzaga Rumors are already suggesting that Dayton is being blocked by Xavier. If that's the case then I doubt Georgetown would be too terribly keen on VCU and even if Georgetown didn't block them would they really compromise the institutional profile of their conference for a school they don't have a past relationship with when they wouldn't do so for Wichita State-- a better program to bend the rules for than VCU? That leaves Gonzaga. Travel costs don't matter for a league like the Big East, Gonzaga can afford the move, they fit the institutional profile of the conference and have a profile no other candidate can match. The litmus test for Big East expansion was Creighton. When the Jays were admitted that proved that the Big East will expand anywhere for the right program. Gonzaga is that program.
Then the AAC will search for at least one member with Dayton and VCU heading that list. VCU seems more likely although Dayton has the nicer facilities the Flyers may run into the same problem getting into the AAC that they have getting in to the Big East since UC is there to block them from the AAC. Who could the A10 add to help ensure that it stays ahead of the MVC if VCU left? Does any combination of Vermont Siena Iona Albany Stony Brook Northeastern James Madison UNC-Wilmington Charleston Elon or any hypothetical addition or combo of additions do that especially with the MVC ready to add more strong schools? Not really and this would put both Dayton and SLU in play for the MVC and probably restore it to multibid status. If the Big East does not take Gonzaga the AAC will and either leave the A10 alone or go after the leading members of the conference to increase its basketball strength and profile. What this means for the MVC we don't know because these conferences need to make their moves first.