MissouriValleyUnite wrote:Play Angry,
I don’t see the attendance trend you note ever reversing. That’s the future and here to stay.
Attendance outside the major 7 leagues (P5+BE+AAC) is generally not good. There are major programs in midmajor leagues like Gonzaga, Dayton, and Saint Louis who have great attendance outside the M7 but again they’re M7 programs in a mid-major league. So the only true mid-majors killing it are probably GCU, VCU, and few MW schools.
I just don’t think attendance is all that important as long as you keep it top 10. A10’s gotten many non-Dayton/SLU bids for many years and their attendance is in-line with the MVC. If GW, LaSalle, RI, St Bonaventure, etc. can get recent bids with their attendance, nothing’s stopping MVC schools from stepping up too.
Expecting Dayton/SLU-like attendance is unrealistic. But I’d expect/hope Bradley (once a consistent winner) can match VCU’s and MVC 2-12 to match/exceed A10 4-14.
tl;dr
If MVC attendance is in-line with A10 attendance, it’s fine. If it dips out of the top 10, it’s trouble. I think it sticks top 10 even with this year’s dip.
I agree that attendance is not a necessary condition to success, although I think it plays a role in sustaining success once achieved (revenues, coaching salaries, recruiting, etc. are integrally tied to fan support and attendance). Many of the programs in the MVC regularly averaged 7-8k+ for lengthy periods not that long ago - rekindling that fan support would go a long way toward achieving the kind of renaissance the league experienced in the late 90s/early 00s. This would certainly require substantial commitment at the institutional level for member schools.
The landscape now is certainly different than it was 20+ years ago and, if engineered correctly, the MVC could use its fan support as an effective mechanism to separate itself from many of its mid-major peers. Unlike most other leagues outside of the M7 (other than maybe the MWC, A10, and parts of the WCC and MAC), the foundation, facilities and prior history is in place for most of the MVC.
In some ways, separation is much easier to achieve now than it was the past. Below is the conference by conference attendance standings for the top 20 leagues in 1992-93:
1 - Big Ten - 12,728
2 - Big East - 10,914
3 - Big Eight - 10,677
4 - Great Midwest - 10,653
5 - SEC - 10,626
6 - ACC - 10,548
7 - WAC - 8,907
8 - Metro - 6,991
9 - Pac Ten - 6,760
10 - MCC - 6,429
11-
MVC - 6,247
12 - Big West - 5,469
13 - SWC - 5,247
14 - A-10 - 5,054
15 - Big Sky - 5,015
16 - Colonial - 4,373
17 - Sun Belt - 4,089
18 - MAC - 3,981
19 - OVC - 3,652
20 - MCC - 3,486
Keep in mind this was at a time when WSU and CU were spiraling in the shitter. CU averaged 3,462 fans that season (seriously) and WSU drew 7,779. The support from the balance of the MVC was relatively strong back then, and the following seasons witnessed major institutional investments in basketball as a wave of young, quality coaches carried the league back to multi-bid relevance.
Now, here is a breakdown of the Top 20 leagues in attendance in 2016-17:
1 - Big Ten - 12,235
2 - ACC - 11,257
3 - SEC - 11,080
4 - Big 12 - 10,427
5 - Big East - 10,014
6 - Pac 12 - 8,170
7 - MWC - 6,456
8 - AAC - 5,744
9 - MVC - 5,010
10 - A-10 - 4,731
11 - WCC - 3,946
12 - CUSA - 3,609
13 - WAC - 2,969
14 - MAC - 2,885
15 - Horizon - 2,723
16 - Colonial - 2,455
17 - Big West - 2,362
18 - Southern - 2,357
19 - Summit - 2,310
20 - Sun Belt - 2,128
The strength of support for the Top 6-7 leagues has been pretty consistent for decades. However, the bottom has really fallen out for leagues below the Top 10, as they were generally pillaged of their most well-resourced members in the mid 90s, mid 00s and mid 10s. The MVC's relative stability despite the departure of WSU and CU is an exception to this rule vis a vis other mid-major conferences, and with renewed investment in their programs the league could readily achieve separation from the A-10/WCC/MAC/CUSA/WAC tier in terms of support, with a long term goal of receiving regular multiple bids to the Dance.
Reversing the trend, however, will likely be expensive and involve turning over the present coaching staff at most members (and obviously hiring successful up and comers as happened for many in the mid to late 90s). Presently, Jake is the only MVC coach who has assembled a team which would have received an at-large bid. The other coaches are 0 for a combined 69 at the D1 level. Obviously, relatively new hires like Wardle, Medved and Lottich must be given time, but does anyone believe the rest (other than Jacobsen) are the long term answer at their respective institution? Housecleaning is in order for many schools, and the need is relatively pressing in light of attendance trendlines. Resources for buyouts and hires will only be harder to amass as attendance continues to dwindle, so there is no time like the present - we are also a decade into the present economic recovery and rest assured that current returns for university endowments will not continue forever.
I loved Drake's and Bradley's recent hires and am hopeful other members will follow suit in short order.
