BirdsEyeView wrote:AndShock wrote:BirdsEyeView wrote:
AndShock, I agree in theory with you. One game typically does not reflect a normal outcome over the course of multiple matchups with said team.
However, in this case, Wichita lost to the 4th place team in Conference USA.
Conference USA finished the season as the 15th ranked conference in the country. And Marshall was 4th place! This was not a scenario where you played a run away winner of a conference that got under-seeded or anything.
Marshall was 12-6 in a bad conference. One can argue, a team (Wichita) that is "better" than Loyola would never, ever lose to Marshall given the information above and the stakes at hand.
Meanwhile, Loyola was 1st in the 8th best conference (one behind your AAC) and won our conference regular season by 4 games, then again won Arch Madness.
And then we consider Virginia who won the 2nd best conference by 4 games, and then won their conference tournament, lost to the 2nd best team in the 25th best conference. It’s basketball. Stuff happens. Using one game to predict future results is futile.
If you replace Marshall with Loyola, sure, we lose that day. We lose to teams even worse than Marshall that day. Replace @ Cincy with @ Loyola the same day, we beat Loyola. Replace home vs Houston with home vs Loyola, we beat Loyola that day. We would’ve beat anyone in the country that day. It’s basketball. Stuff happens.
True. Lightning in a bottle theory.
Loyola has narrowed the gap in KenPom since the tournament began (20th vs 30th). https://kenpom.com/
I always look at AdjD when rankings like this are closer together between two teams.
We’ve actually been a (slightly) better carbon copy of Nevada all year when it comes to KenPom rankings. Loyola and Nevada looked pretty evenly matched to me. I wouldn’t put money on either team to win more than 6 out of 10 matchups. I definitely wouldn’t say “Loyola is better than Nevada and it’s not even close.”
20 and 30 isn’t really that close though. WSU and Loyola are as close as Loyola and Mississippi State.