Updated 1/6/18: MVC Expansion Poll

[VUGrad1314]

Murray State's president looks to be following their AD out the door. This may not be good for future expansion. These guys were decidedly pro-athletics. There's no telling whether the next administration will have a similar character. With budget cuts looming in Kentucky, the window to add another quality program in our footprint may be closing.

https://www.racerfans.com/board/viewtop ... b43cfc8057

[VUGrad1314]

I'm only mentioning this because they were mentioned in the initial article and included in the poll: Oakland hired a new AD two weeks ago with a P5 background. This is a good sign that indicates their willingness to get to the next level. Coupled with the Mike Davis hire at UDM, is it possible that the MVC would look to Detroit as it searches for new members? I do think it's very possible that the Horizon League will be back on its way back up very soon. One thing that surprised me is how candidly Oakland's coach stated the need for facility upgrades. It may be best for the MVC to wait and see who emerges from the HL as the MVC focuses on getting even better to possibly attract its tier 1 targets. I just really think Murray State is going to force their hand pretty soon. They look really solid and poised for another big year.

https://twitter.com/BradGalli/status/10 ... 2829817859

Expansion Tier List (feel free to disagree)

Tier 1 adds: Belmont Murray State SDSU (Dayton and SLU would make this list if they were real possibilities)
Tier 2 adds: Wright State NKU NDSU
Tier 3 adds: Milwaukee UIC Detroit Oakland Green Bay South Dakota
Tier 4 adds: ORU UALR Denver SEMO North Dakota Omaha UMKC

[VUGrad1314]

More and more I'm warming to a Murray State\South Dakota State combo if such a thing were possible. I think that would really raise the profile of the league.

[VUGrad1314]

Why isn't SDSU viewed as an addition on the same tier as Murray State? The case for SDSU as a tier 1 priority add.

Averaged 23.25 wins
Beaten Iowa X2 Minnesota Ole Miss TCU Washington New Mexico (when they had an RPI of 2 and were nationally ranked) Buffalo X2 (including last year) Belmont Middle Tennessee Murray State multiple MVC teams and a host of other schools that were top 100 finishers but not as perennially successful
Average RPI: 92.25 No sub 200 years
5 tournament appearances
5 top 100 RPI finishes including 4 times in the top 62
Strong Womens sports
All in a league consistently better than the OVC

RPI Rankings:

Summit:21 16 19 17 21 11 17 17

OVC: 27 21 16 24 25 21 25 21

ASUN*: 17 20

Their numbers over the past 8 years suggest that they are a step below Belmont but even better than Murray State. In fact, they frequently finish AHEAD of BOTH Just for fun I threw in NDSU to show that while the potential exists for them to be a good program they are a clear tier below.

SDSU: 37 155 28 99 133 62 42 183

Murray: 48 230 169 63 145 117 22 117

Belmont:81 60 95 104 51 19 58** 51**

NDSU: 210 111 125 90 33^ 75 183 238

* Belmont were members of the Atlantic Sun Conference for the first two years of this data set (2010-2011 and 2011-2012)
**In Atlantic Sun Conference

^ Beat Oklahoma in NCAA Tournament

SDSU has finished with the best RPI of this group two of the past three years and has finished ahead of just Murray State 3 times and just Belmont twice.

Belmont is the rock-steady standard bearer at 64.8 average RPI SDSU's 92.25 mark actually bests Murray State at 113.8

Hi\Lo gives us: 109.8 for Murray State 66 for Belmont and 88 for South Dakota State

3 year peak leaves 42.7 for Belmont 73.3 for SDSU and 85.3 for Murray State

Interestingly 3 year peak indicates that NDSU has a higher ceiling (66) than SDSU despite checking in in the 130s in average and Hi\Lo thus indicating greater volatility and greater difficulty sustaining success. They also have the lowest high RPI the lowest low RPI and are the only team in this group with multiple sub 200 seasons

As you can see, by posting better more consistent numbers in a consistently better league one could make the case that SDSU is a better addition than Murray State and not just because of Mike Daum or Scott Nagy either. Of course, longevity matters and nobody beats Murray State there. Belmont comes close with 19+ wins every year since 2005-2006. The Racers have also weathered the storm of multiple coaching changes unlike Belmont and SDSU, and there are legitimate concerns as to whether Belmont can last beyond Byrd or SDSU beyond Otzelberger. Still, the same things were said about Valpo when the Drews left and SDSU when Nagy left, even Murray State deals with that question every time they replace a coach. Oftentimes when a program is successful for this long it's because of principles and a blueprint so firmly woven into the fabric of a program that they endure even after the coach that instilled them in the first place leaves. This is particularly true when a program hires from within.

[VUGrad1314]

To be fairer to Murray State, adding a ninth year to the evaluation window would have given them another top 60 RPI season while adding a sub-200 year to SDSU and giving Belmont its worst RPI in the window. Plus a second NCAA Tournament win. The average RPIs would be:

Belmont 72.7
Murray State: 107.6
SDSU: 108.1

Hi\Lo would be :

Belmont 71.4
SDSU: 101.6
Murray State: 102.3

Three Year Peak:

Belmont: 42.7
SDSU:73.3
Murray State: 65.3

You can see that SDSU and Murray State have been roughly the same caliber of program the past 8-9 years and the first couple of years of the data set are the worst SDSU has been indicating a strong positive trend.

[Dean Wormer]

beating_a_dead_horse2_5047.jpg (29.72 KiB) Viewed 1730 times

[VUGrad1314]

Imagine what you could have done in the time it took you to find that picture, click on this thread, post it just to be a jerk, and add literally nothing to an attempt to begin a conversation around a sound, factual well-researched data set. I do this for informational purposes and because I enjoy looking at numbers. Some people may enjoy reading it and by doing so they become better informed fans about regional mid-majors and potential (however remote the possibility may be) new conference mates. If you don't like it, don't read it.

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

I'm warming up to the idea of SDSU. I was 100% against anyone outside of Grand Canyon (yep, it's me again!), NKU, St. Louis, or MuSt. SDSU would be a good add. I'd choose them over every other Dakota.

[VUGrad1314]

Yeah, they really have shown themselves to be a high-level potential add as the numbers clearly show. The only thing they haven't done is win in March but, hey, neither has Belmont. They're also not terribly out of the footprint for anyone. It doesn't solve Missouri State's travel partner problem( they'd go with Drake UNI with SDSU) but it does get two high-potential programs into the MVC which could help solve the consistent multiple bids problem. I could certainly see the desire to see how the program does after Daum and Otzelberger leave so I would understand waiting but the fact that they have done well before Daum is significant I think.

[Redhawk]

Adding SDSU alone has a lot of merit. What turns everyone off is the thought that you would
have to take all 4 Dakotas which is a non starter!