When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby MSUDuo » February 18th, 2019, 1:20 pm

Hacksaw wrote:
MSUDuo wrote:Thought for sure MSU would jump. Not that it means anything right now of course

MSU is definitely closer to the top than they were after the last update, but Sagarin has Loyola and Drake on average winning more games down the stretch.

Image

BCPanther wrote:I'm surprised SIU is still most likely 4th. Has to all be in the sweep over UNI and the tiebreakers.

SIU sits really well in the tiebreakers, and from the chart above, Sagarin ratings say they have the most future projected wins of the 7-7 teams.



That's rough. Only 2.23 with 3 homes left? Good thing we play these games on the court, we'd be in last place if it was on paper.
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby ValleyFAN » February 18th, 2019, 1:53 pm

MSUDuo wrote:
Hacksaw wrote:
MSUDuo wrote:Thought for sure MSU would jump. Not that it means anything right now of course

MSU is definitely closer to the top than they were after the last update, but Sagarin has Loyola and Drake on average winning more games down the stretch.

Image

BCPanther wrote:I'm surprised SIU is still most likely 4th. Has to all be in the sweep over UNI and the tiebreakers.

SIU sits really well in the tiebreakers, and from the chart above, Sagarin ratings say they have the most future projected wins of the 7-7 teams.



That's rough. Only 2.23 with 3 homes left? Good thing we play these games on the court, we'd be in last place if it was on paper.


Logic alone tells you that the Bears will win 3 of the 4 games and finish 12-6 in the league. I believe fully that Loyola and Drake will both drop at least one game as well, bringing the head to head into play. I just dont know that I see Drake winning at JQH in the season finale on the Bears senior day in front of what is likely to be a very large and excited crowd.
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby MSUDuo » February 18th, 2019, 2:06 pm

ValleyFAN wrote:
Logic alone tells you that the Bears will win 3 of the 4 games and finish 12-6 in the league. I believe fully that Loyola and Drake will both drop at least one game as well, bringing the head to head into play. I just dont know that I see Drake winning at JQH in the season finale on the Bears senior day in front of what is likely to be a very large and excited crowd.


It's FCA Day at JQH on March 2nd. That alone will get a couple thousand who probably wouldn't be there.
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby Hacksaw » February 18th, 2019, 8:20 pm

For the fans of chaos, simulation #2297:
Image
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby Old School MVC » February 18th, 2019, 8:45 pm

I thought in years past, you did a percentage chance of winning each game of the last 4 games. And if I remember right, you had all scenarios with two games left. Will you be doing that again this year?
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby Hacksaw » February 18th, 2019, 8:58 pm

Old School MVC wrote:I thought in years past, you did a percentage chance of winning each game of the last 4 games. And if I remember right, you had all scenarios with two games left. Will you be doing that again this year?


Indeed, I will. My plan is to break out the graph with the remaining 15 games and the odds of winning each game on Thursday. I can supply every scenario with 10 games left, but that is still over 1000 scenarios. I usually supply the last 32 scenarios when each team has one game remaining.
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby Kyle@MOState » February 18th, 2019, 9:06 pm

Hacksaw wrote:For the fans of chaos, simulation #2297:
Image


Tied for first, and in the play in game... Ha ha ha... I could almost see something like that snake biting Drake. I wouldn't mind that scenario, just because Missouri State would still be the 1 seed, although this scenario only has Missouri State winning one more game, so that would be a frustrating way to finish the season.
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby Old School MVC » February 18th, 2019, 9:21 pm

Hacksaw wrote:
Old School MVC wrote:I thought in years past, you did a percentage chance of winning each game of the last 4 games. And if I remember right, you had all scenarios with two games left. Will you be doing that again this year?


Indeed, I will. My plan is to break out the graph with the remaining 15 games and the odds of winning each game on Thursday. I can supply every scenario with 10 games left, but that is still over 1000 scenarios. I usually supply the last 32 scenarios when each team has one game remaining.


Thank You!!! I am not sure if you know how much we all enjoy this. If you are at Arch Madness, I would love to buy you a beer!
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby MSUDuo » February 18th, 2019, 9:38 pm

Old School MVC wrote:
Hacksaw wrote:
Old School MVC wrote:I thought in years past, you did a percentage chance of winning each game of the last 4 games. And if I remember right, you had all scenarios with two games left. Will you be doing that again this year?


Indeed, I will. My plan is to break out the graph with the remaining 15 games and the odds of winning each game on Thursday. I can supply every scenario with 10 games left, but that is still over 1000 scenarios. I usually supply the last 32 scenarios when each team has one game remaining.


Thank You!!! I am not sure if you know how much we all enjoy this. If you are at Arch Madness, I would love to buy you a beer!


Likewise!
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Re: When do we get our first Hacksaw graph?

Postby chitown fanatic » February 19th, 2019, 9:09 am

Same here! Its the most anticipated thread after each set of games....thanks for all you do!
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