All-Conference Teams

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Re: All-Conference Teams

Postby BEARZ77 » February 21st, 2021, 7:42 pm

Birdfan2018 wrote:DJ Horne scores 41 points in two games against the Bears and is not worthy of fourth team, huh?


While I agree with you in terms of Horne being probably a top 10-12 in the league, Vision is a staunch metrics guy . I think it relates to what he does professionally, and he uses that approach consistently to make his analysis and form opinions. Now he goes to a lot of games to, so there's always the direct observation part, but he very definitely uses a lot of advanced metrics to form his opinions and from that standpoint can certainly make legit arguments depending on how much the other person values metrics. I always value his approach even though we disagree at times, because it introduces me to other ways to evaluate and understand the game.
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Re: All-Conference Teams

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Re: All-Conference Teams

Postby Blers » February 21st, 2021, 8:05 pm

First team for me is a lock but after that I have NO idea. I think Krut is POTY and Lucas Williamson is DPOY with Uguak close behind... Williamson’s just been elite for three years now and I think gets it based on that. I’d be surprised if anyone other than Krutwig from Loyola makes an all conference team just because no one else puts up huge numbers, lately Uguak and Clemons have been the offensive hot hands but idk if that’s be enough. Childs would have been on a list but that may change now...

First team
Krutwig (POY)
Penn
Key
Prim
Mosley

Second team
Hemphill
Jones
Horne
Phyfe
Murphy

DPOY-Williamson
NCOY-Hemphill
Most improved- Mosley
FOTY- Born? ISU’a young talent is impressive
Sixth Man- total crapshoot. Henry, Yesefu, Kennedy, Sturtz could all be candidates
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Re: All-Conference Teams

Postby Birdfan2018 » February 21st, 2021, 8:24 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:
Birdfan2018 wrote:DJ Horne scores 41 points in two games against the Bears and is not worthy of fourth team, huh?


While I agree with you in terms of Horne being probably a top 10-12 in the league, Vision is a staunch metrics guy . I think it relates to what he does professionally, and he uses that approach consistently to make his analysis and form opinions. Now he goes to a lot of games to, so there's always the direct observation part, but he very definitely uses a lot of advanced metrics to form his opinions and from that standpoint can certainly make legit arguments depending on how much the other person values metrics. I always value his approach even though we disagree at times, because it introduces me to other ways to evaluate and understand the game.

Does he take into account that DJHorne is providing the leadership to a team that is starting 2-Freshman & 3-Sophomores (2-Freshman, 2-Sophomores & 1 Junior if JUCO Mahorcic starts). Not much D1 experience there.
Does he take into account how many assists DJ Horne loses when those young players blow layups & wide open shots that as they gain experience will start going in and increase his assist totals.
Before getting injured and going 1-6 from 3’s the last game he played, DJ Horne was #7 in College Basketball (and #1 in the MVC) in 3-pt%.
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Re: All-Conference Teams

Postby BEARZ77 » February 22nd, 2021, 8:30 am

Remember now I really like Horne and think he's a top 10-12 guy in the MVC, but if you're argument is based on stuff like assists that didn't happen because guys missed shots, I think Vision will just laugh at ya, but I shouldn't speak for him. Again, everyone has their own way of evaluating; most are traditional in terms of standard stats and how a guy looks. But in today's world advance metrics drive much of the argument for many, probably more so at the professional level where it comes in to play more on contract negotiations and arbitration rulings than for All League teams in college sports. Although, a significant part of the team NET includes some advance metrics in the calculations, so we will continue to see it used as a tool across sports evaluations. And even in traditional measurements, good players on bad teams always get a bit short changed when choosing All League Teams. But hey like i said, you don't have to agree with points a metrics guy like Vision makes to gain a broader understanding of ways to evaluate players from looking at how metrics are derived and what they actually measure. I respect the numbers, but trust my eyes , but I understand that's the main point of metrics, revealing things not easily or traditionally seen/examined as to a player/teams real effectiveness/value.
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Re: All-Conference Teams

Postby bleach » February 22nd, 2021, 2:53 pm

I am asking not stating so, here goes. How do you factor in injuries like Hemphill and Penn have had? To me there is no question they could both be 1st team if hadn't been injured. Does their value go down because they played most of the season but weren't available when it counted most? How much of the season would you have to miss/play for it to not be a factor? At this point, I think I would have to drop them both to 2nd team based on value being lessened by availability but would fully understand the argument of body of work when available. Discuss.....
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Re: All-Conference Teams

Postby Bearvision » February 23rd, 2021, 10:30 pm

Birdfan2018 wrote:
Bearvision wrote:
MissouriValleyUnite wrote:POY - Krutwig
DPOY - Williamson

1st Team
Penn
Mosley
Hemphill
Prim
Krutwig

2nd Team
Horne
Williamson
Key
Childs
Brodie


I doubt I'd have Horne on the 4th team. He is currently at .115 Win Shares/40 minutes and 1.8 Win Shares on the season.

The others have cases. Like I say, other than Krutwig, Prim, Mosley it's pretty debatable.


DJ Horne scores 41 points in two games against the Bears and is not worthy of fourth team, huh?


Correct. In the two games against Missouri State- which I'm merely highlighting due to you bringing it up:

Horne averaged 1.14 points per possession on offense. A good number for sure.

On defense, he allowed...1.14 points per possession. Giving away all of his offensive value in those two games.

To get his point numbers he had to take more than 30% of his teams' shots while on the court (Usage), a quite high number. To put it in perspective, no player in the Valley has a 30+% Usage rate on the season.

He's a good player- possibly a great offensive player- but (to me) the total sum of his game is more in the 18-22 range of Valley players this season. Certainly not a 2nd team player in this year's Valley.
Last edited by Bearvision on February 23rd, 2021, 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: All-Conference Teams

Postby Bearvision » February 23rd, 2021, 10:34 pm

BEARZ77 wrote:
Birdfan2018 wrote:DJ Horne scores 41 points in two games against the Bears and is not worthy of fourth team, huh?


While I agree with you in terms of Horne being probably a top 10-12 in the league, Vision is a staunch metrics guy . I think it relates to what he does professionally, and he uses that approach consistently to make his analysis and form opinions. Now he goes to a lot of games to, so there's always the direct observation part, but he very definitely uses a lot of advanced metrics to form his opinions and from that standpoint can certainly make legit arguments depending on how much the other person values metrics. I always value his approach even though we disagree at times, because it introduces me to other ways to evaluate and understand the game.


Pretty much. :Cheers:
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