2021 Arch Madness Seeding Projections

[Birdfan2018]

Makes sense. Thanks.
With the Aces, Salukis, Braves, and Redbirds remaining, it should just be a matter of taking care of business for the Bears to secure the 3. The last 2 series with Loyola and Drake have definitely taken away their swagger but might have given them more drive.
Have the Trees played Loyola?

The Trees split with Loyola.

[Hacksaw]

14 games to go means 16,384 possible outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. Here is the breakdown of the potential seeding possibilities:


While the above provides all possibilities as equal chances, this below chart provides a weighted look at the potential seeding outcomes:

[bleach]

Top 4 are not only guaranteed but order seems pretty obvious too.

[goramblers2011]

Has there been a definitive answer on tiebreaker? Particularly, if Loyola and Drake both finish 16-2...we look to record against top ranked common opponent (which would be Missouri State in 3rd) and both Drake and LUC are 2-0 vs MoSt. Will the MVC then go "down the chain" to Indiana State or will it go to the next tiebreaking metric (NET ranking)?

[Hacksaw]

Has there been a definitive answer on tiebreaker? Particularly, if Loyola and Drake both finish 16-2...we look to record against top ranked common opponent (which would be Missouri State in 3rd) and both Drake and LUC are 2-0 vs MoSt. Will the MVC then go "down the chain" to Indiana State or will it go to the next tiebreaking metric (NET ranking)?

From the Valley office, yes, that step in the tiebreaker process is intended to continue on down the chain. This would be similar to how other conferences utilize that type of tiebreaker.

[Birdfan2018]

Has there been a definitive answer on tiebreaker? Particularly, if Loyola and Drake both finish 16-2...we look to record against top ranked common opponent (which would be Missouri State in 3rd) and both Drake and LUC are 2-0 vs MoSt. Will the MVC then go "down the chain" to Indiana State or will it go to the next tiebreaking metric (NET ranking)?

From the Valley office, yes, that step in the tiebreaker process is intended to continue on down the chain. This would be similar to how other conferences utilize that type of tiebreaker.

Loyola’s loss was to Indiana State
Drake’s loss was to Valparaiso
Makes zero since that Drake would get the #1 Seed because they beat #4 Seed Indiana State & Loyola lost to #4 seed Indiana State.
Drake lost to a lower seeded team.
Indiana St would win a tie Breaker over Valparaiso due to their win over Loyola’s being better than Valparaiso’s win over Drake.
I need a drink

[MSUDuo]

Has there been a definitive answer on tiebreaker? Particularly, if Loyola and Drake both finish 16-2...we look to record against top ranked common opponent (which would be Missouri State in 3rd) and both Drake and LUC are 2-0 vs MoSt. Will the MVC then go "down the chain" to Indiana State or will it go to the next tiebreaking metric (NET ranking)?

From the Valley office, yes, that step in the tiebreaker process is intended to continue on down the chain. This would be similar to how other conferences utilize that type of tiebreaker.

Loyola’s loss was to Indiana State
Drake’s loss was to Valparaiso
Makes zero since that Drake would get the #1 Seed because they beat #4 Seed Indiana State & Loyola lost to #4 seed Indiana State.
Drake lost to a lower seeded team.
Indiana St would win a tie Breaker over Valparaiso due to their win over Loyola’s being better than Valparaiso’s win over Drake.
I need a drink

You just answered your own dilemma. It's always about who you beat, not who you lost to

[Hacksaw]

With just 10 games to be played, here are the final 1,024 possible seeding scenarios:


And here are the weighted odds for the seeding:

[Rambler63]

Loyola had to re-adjust when Drake and Bradley went through Covid restrictions. When Loyola had to switch from playing at Drake to playing at Indiana State with less than 48 hours notice, Loyola lost at Indiana State by 5 points. They came back the next night to win by 10.

Drake lost by 17 points against Valpo on the same court where Loyola won by 36 three weeks earlier.

The day after beating Drake by 27 points in Des Moines, the Bulldogs eked out a 1-point overtime win-- also at home.

That doesn't seem like a fair basis for deciding the tournament's top seeding.

[Hacksaw]

Here are the other seeding charts and the team charts. Yet another fun final weekend awaits.