REPORT: Murray to the Valley?

[racernation]

Funny to me that all these FCS schools jockeying for an FBS slot think that FBS is an ATM machine. The NCAA/BCS pie is only as big as media rights. And these media companies aren't the Federal Reserve where they can just print money and dole it out to the Missouri State's of the world.

[squirrel]

FCS football will be, if it's not already, the third tier of college football. The SEC, Big Ten, ACC and PAC12 are going to be done playing anybody outside those leagues within the next decade and at that point you've got separation and the FCS is dead. Missouri State is really smart to be getting out in front of it and the rest of the MVC football schools need to act as well. The non-footballs also need to realize that it's in their best interest to support that or be damn sure that they can get into the A10 or they're in a really bad spot.

Right. The real question is what that "split" will look like. I can see at least 4 possible scenarios (with varying degrees of likelihood):

1) The SEC just continues to pick the most relevant football schools from each league, and creates their own 24- or 32-team super conference and splits from the NCAA. What is left in FBS becomes the top division of NCAA-sanctioned football, but clearly a second-tier. (Not super likely, but if Clemson and Florida State join from the ACC, ND gets a seat, I can see Michigan and Ohio State taking a serious look at moving in this direction as well. That happens, this is absolutely how the split happens.)

2) NCAA members decide to reorganize DI: A 64-, 72-, 80-, or 96-team division (traditionally "university" or 1-A) at the top. There may be room for anywhere from 1-4 non-football traditional basketball leagues in this scenario to be on the top tier of the split (Big East, Valley, A10, and WCC the most likely candidates), but with no guarantee. But what is left out becomes the new FCS, and essentially creates a I-AA in basketball. The silver lining here is Valley schools become serious National Championship contenders if they end up on the second tier. (Most likely scenario)

3) You don't see too much change at the top, but the disparity continues to grow. Slowly, the Valley's football members find opportunities that continue to give them the best seat at the table. (Second most likely scenario)

4) The other Valley football schools follow the WAC model and as a group commit to moving toward FBS football, gradually. This approach would continue to improve the league's long-term viability, as well as open the door to bringing Wichita back and allow them to strategically re-launch football, as well as even maybe open the door to Tulsa coming back. (Least likely scenario)

[squirrel]

Funny to me that all these FCS schools jockeying for an FBS slot think that FBS is an ATM machine. The NCAA/BCS pie is only as big as media rights. And these media companies aren't the Federal Reserve where they can just print money and dole it out to the Missouri State's of the world.

While this is the P5, and not the G5: Kansas, arguably the worst FBS program, makes twice as much on football as it does in men's basketball (~$13M to ~$7M). Now a lot of that is postseason and TV money, and largely because of the league's other members who won't all be there in the future.

But the idea is to get there. As the saying goes in poker, you only need a chip and a chair, and you can still win. A program catches lightning and blows up at the right time, their circumstances can put them in an entirely different stratosphere.

[IllinoisState]

FCS football will be, if it's not already, the third tier of college football. The SEC, Big Ten, ACC and PAC12 are going to be done playing anybody outside those leagues within the next decade and at that point you've got separation and the FCS is dead. Missouri State is really smart to be getting out in front of it and the rest of the MVC football schools need to act as well. The non-footballs also need to realize that it's in their best interest to support that or be damn sure that they can get into the A10 or they're in a really bad spot.

Right. The real question is what that "split" will look like. I can see at least 4 possible scenarios (with varying degrees of likelihood):

1) The SEC just continues to pick the most relevant football schools from each league, and creates their own 24- or 32-team super conference and splits from the NCAA. What is left in FBS becomes the top division of NCAA-sanctioned football, but clearly a second-tier. (Not super likely, but if Clemson and Florida State join from the ACC, ND gets a seat, I can see Michigan and Ohio State taking a serious look at moving in this direction as well. That happens, this is absolutely how the split happens.)

2) NCAA members decide to reorganize DI: A 64-, 72-, 80-, or 96-team division (traditionally "university" or 1-A) at the top. There may be room for anywhere from 1-4 non-football traditional basketball leagues in this scenario to be on the top tier of the split (Big East, Valley, A10, and WCC the most likely candidates), but with no guarantee. But what is left out becomes the new FCS, and essentially creates a I-AA in basketball. The silver lining here is Valley schools become serious National Championship contenders if they end up on the second tier. (Most likely scenario)

3) You don't see too much change at the top, but the disparity continues to grow. Slowly, the Valley's football members find opportunities that continue to give them the best seat at the table. (Second most likely scenario)

4) The other Valley football schools follow the WAC model and as a group commit to moving toward FBS football, gradually. This approach would continue to improve the league's long-term viability, as well as open the door to bringing Wichita back and allow them to strategically re-launch football, as well as even maybe open the door to Tulsa coming back. (Least likely scenario)

The Big Ten schools do care about academics and wouldn't move to the SEC. In fact they make a lot more money from being a top research university than from sports.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Big Ten add Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Virginia, or Notre Dame at some point.

[BCPanther]

The ACC is going to be tough to poach because the signed away TV rights until 2036.

Now, this has never been challenged in court so it's hard to know how that would go but it would be costly.

In an ideal world, the Big Ten adds North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech (MASSIVE research/engineering dollars plus the Atlanta market) and Notre Dame (if they're willing, otherwise Duke) and functions as two separate 10 team leagues with a crossover scheduling agreement.

[squirrel]

The Big Ten schools do care about academics and wouldn't move to the SEC. In fact they make a lot more money from being a top research university than from sports.

They will when those numbers become billions instead of millions. And this gets to your point, too. . .it's the same reason why nearly every school that has made a conference move (or multiple moves) hasn't flinched at the buyout fees they've had to pay.

[letsgoAces]

Some of you seem to want to turn this conversation ugly but I'm not sure why. I don't think that will serve any good purpose for the board, but choose your path. Personally I have nothing but good things to say about the Valley overall , and generally hope we stay for the long term; but conference affiliations like many other aspects of collegiate sports are undergoing huge shifts and I certainly won't apologize for MSU trying to look after it's best interests even if I don't always agree with our choices. Unlike WSU , I don't think the majority of Missouri State fans see MSU as being above the Valley, and we wouldn't be moving for that line of thinking.I don't recall seeing any scathing posts from MSU fans about getting out of the Valley and disparaging conference rivals . But some here seem to want to go that way towards MSU and are being disingenuous , because I frequent most team fan boards here and it's a rare board that doesn't have fans speculating or some wishing they could move to a next level league at some point. But like i said, choose your path.

I think most posters on here are basketball fans and football is not a consideration, hence the confusion as to why MSU would want to leave. Obviously MSU had aspirations of being a football school, so they have no choice but to find a conference that will allow them to be an FBS team. Obviously conference USA is not a "next level league" in Basketball, and may not even be in Football, but they do play an FBS schedule in theory. Maybe moving to a conference like that enables Missouri State to be in some conference with legit FBS schools in 30 years. I really don't think that the Power 5 are going to want the pool to expand, but who knows.

Outstanding post, Drakey. Completely agree and well stated on all accounts.

[BCPanther]

Jake may have said the quiet part out loud at media day today....

'If we look at going to 12, the logical choice is Murray. Now, I mean, I know nothing of that but it just seems logical.'

He wasn't asked specifically about expansion it just came out during a stream of consciousness response talking about scheduling. Also said it's important for the league to get better so that we can stop overpaying for quality buy games and specifically talked about having to spend 'just shy of $150k' on Nicholls and Vermont.

[Loyola_Fan]

What's the problem with scheduling A 10, MWC, AAC teams? Loyola has Davidson this year, but there's a lot of fluff on our schedule. I get why p6 teams don't want to schedule us, but home and homes with teams from 7, 8, and 9 seem realistic and yet those games seem pretty rare? We actually have more power conference teams scheduled in the non con than good mid major teams this year.

[BCPanther]

What's the problem with scheduling A 10, MWC, AAC teams? Loyola has Davidson this year, but there's a lot of fluff on our schedule. I get why p6 teams don't want to schedule us, but home and homes with teams from 7, 8, and 9 seem realistic and yet those games seem pretty rare? We actually have more power conference teams scheduled in the non con than good mid major teams this year.

They don't want to go on the road just like we don't want to go on the road.

They don't want to play games that could knock you out of the tournament in Nov/Dec just like we don't want to play games that will knock us out of the tournament in Nov/Dec.

That's how you end up paying Vermont, who's really good, $90,000.