Another Expansion/Realignment Thread

[MissouriValleyUnite]

I take it I missed the announcement the Horizon has a member in Chicago?

[Aces44]

I take it I missed the announcement the Horizon has a member in Chicago?

Minutiae to the larger point, but in this scenario Valpo was regulated back the the Horizon also.

[TylerDurden]

Neither UE nor the MVC would be better off with UE moving to the Horizon League in my opinion. SIU, ISU-B, and Murray State are 3 big rivalries for UE. UE has great basketball, baseball, softball, and soccer facilities. The current administration is moving forward with improving both the facilities and the teams that represent the university.
The only plus side of that move would be the basketball teams never having to play in Iowa again in January and February.

Per the MVC MBB media guide, Evansville is 201-323 (.384) in MVC games all-time, which is the worst of any team that's been in the league more than a decade. Only Valpo and UIC have worse winning percentages among current members.

The Purple Aces have only five winning conference seasons in 30 years and three of those were in the first five years of membership under Jim Crews before his ship sank.

UE fans might not like the idea of Evansville in the Horizon (or whatever league), but the track record over three decades suggests that they would be better off in another league.

[MissouriValleyUnite]

I take it I missed the announcement the Horizon has a member in Chicago?

Minutiae to the larger point, but in this scenario Valpo was regulated back the the Horizon also.

If you remove Evansville, there's only a 3% difference:

Chicago 9,449,351
St. Louis 2,820,253
Nashville 2,014,444
Des Moines 709,466
Springfield 465,825
Peoria 368,782
Bloomington 170,954
Terre Haute 168,875
Waterloo-CF 168,461
Jackson Co 52,974
Calloway Co 37,103
16,426,488

Detroit 4,392,041
Pittsburgh 2,457,000
Cincinnati 2,249,797
Cleveland 2,185,825
Indianapolis 2,089,653
Milwaukee 1,574,731
Dayton 814,049
Fort Wayne 447,781
Youngstown 430,591
Green Bay 328,268
16,969,736

If you add NWI's (831,080 in 7 counties) to the Horizon, their total is now 17,800,816 -- or 8% higher.

Yes, Valparaiso is technically in the Chicago MSA, but it's 55 miles from downtown Chicago. A NWI total of 7 counties is much more realistic.

The Missouri Valley Conference Form 990 reports 10,758,638 in revenue. Divide by 12 and that's 896,553.

The Horizon League Form 990 reports 4,382,539 in revenue. Divide by 11 and that's 398,412.

That's a difference of 498,141. A president isn't giving up $500k just for a 3-8% increase in the conference's population footprint. Plus, tv exposure trumps physical exposure and the Valley has way more linear tv exposure. ESPN2/U/CBBSSN games aside, the MVC’s RSN footprint hits about 15 states.

[E-Villan]

Neither UE nor the MVC would be better off with UE moving to the Horizon League in my opinion. SIU, ISU-B, and Murray State are 3 big rivalries for UE. UE has great basketball, baseball, softball, and soccer facilities. The current administration is moving forward with improving both the facilities and the teams that represent the university.
The only plus side of that move would be the basketball teams never having to play in Iowa again in January and February.

Per the MVC MBB media guide, Evansville is 201-323 (.384) in MVC games all-time, which is the worst of any team that's been in the league more than a decade. Only Valpo and UIC have worse winning percentages among current members.

The Purple Aces have only five winning conference seasons in 30 years and three of those were in the first five years of membership under Jim Crews before his ship sank.

UE fans might not like the idea of Evansville in the Horizon (or whatever league), but the track record over three decades suggests that they would be better off in another league.

Fair points, but you need to look into the numbers and examine why? For starters, UE's biggest problem since 2001 has been leadership, particularly from the president and AD postions. Presidents who were much more interested in academia than our athletic programs, which led to a lack of support as well as poor hires for AD and coaches across the board. That began to change in 2018 with the hire of our current president, who has an extensive background in athletics as well as academics. I can tell you he is 110% committed to a competitive D-1 program across the board. He brought in our current AD in the spring of 2022, which appears to be a fantastic hire. Another guy who I know is absolutely committed to our athletic program. In the 50+ years I have followed this program, I have never seen the energy and focus from our AD's office that we are currently seeing. If you are questioning this, I would suggest following both of them on twitter or X or whatever it is this week. This is a complete 180 from the secrecy and aloofness we experienced in the past. There is no question our former administration as well as athletic department was a dumpster fire.

When questioning if a program can be competitive in a conference, you have to look at resources, support, facilities and personnel. We are in the top half of the league in all of those categories with the only question mark at this point personnel. We have already shown improvement in a few womens sports and certainly baseball, which is now sitting among the top of the league. Our improvements to our on-campus stadiums has been remarkable, with the baseball stadium being selected to host the MVC Tournament next spring. The support and resources are still around. Along with Bradley, I think we are the only other school that has averaged over 10K a game, and we did that for years. Still being near the top with the average Tyler posted is something in of itself.

In short, there is nobody in the MVC, and certainly none of the expansion candidates that have been discussed over and over that we can't compete with in those areas. With that in mind, it simply comes down to having the right people in place. I honestly feel we finally have..especially in leadership. Drake and Loyola both spent nearly 50 years in the abyss before finding success with getting the right people. There is no reason we can't as well.

The skepticism is warranted, but if I was a fan of another MVC school, I would much rather hope to see my team playing in front of a large crowd in the Ford Center than an empty gym in KC or Milwaukee.

[Aces44]

I take it I missed the announcement the Horizon has a member in Chicago?

Minutiae to the larger point, but in this scenario Valpo was regulated back the the Horizon also.

If you remove Evansville, there's only a 3% difference:

Chicago 9,449,351
St. Louis 2,820,253
Nashville 2,014,444
Des Moines 709,466
Springfield 465,825
Peoria 368,782
Bloomington 170,954
Terre Haute 168,875
Waterloo-CF 168,461
Jackson Co 52,974
Calloway Co 37,103
16,426,488

Detroit 4,392,041
Pittsburgh 2,457,000
Cincinnati 2,249,797
Cleveland 2,185,825
Indianapolis 2,089,653
Milwaukee 1,574,731
Dayton 814,049
Fort Wayne 447,781
Youngstown 430,591
Green Bay 328,268
16,969,736

If you add NWI's (831,080 in 7 counties) to the Horizon, their total is now 17,800,816 -- or 8% higher.

Yes, Valparaiso is technically in the Chicago MSA, but it's 55 miles from downtown Chicago. A NWI total of 7 counties is much more realistic.

The Missouri Valley Conference Form 990 reports 10,758,638 in revenue. Divide by 12 and that's 896,553.

The Horizon League Form 990 reports 4,382,539 in revenue. Divide by 11 and that's 398,412.

That's a difference of 498,141. A president isn't giving up $500k just for a 3-8% increase in the conference's population footprint. Plus, tv exposure trumps physical exposure and the Valley has way more linear tv exposure. ESPN2/U/CBBSSN games aside, the MVC’s RSN footprint hits about 15 states.

Respectfully, I believe you would need to add Evansville to the bottom number (pushing it above an 10% increase). Additionally, having StL(which I agree with) in the MVC number is incredibly valuable to your equation if even for a weekend. (If for some reason Arch Madness was ever moved, the Market Sizes would be wildly lopsided in the Horizon’s favor)
That said, I believe you are making the point that Market Size potentially gets overstated as a metric; which I would agree with.

[Chuck A]

We're a one bid league going forward. Adding anybody is stupid until we have a clear picture of what the NCAA is going to look like.

I agree on the latter part of your post and disagree on the former. The MVC has been a multiple bid league more times than not in its existence. Granted, there has been a bit of a slippage. This slippage, in my opinion, has been due in part to realignment, covid (sickness and coaches only able to see players on video, not live) and the transfer portal. Once all of the upheaval settles down, as coaches get a better handle on the transfer portal, high school recruiting and NIL, I think the Valley will emerge as a better league. I don’t think anyone on this board can deny that Murray State and Belmont will be big additions to this conference and help with the multiple bid goal. The Valley will regain its multiple-bid status with the quickening. No need to be concerned about that.

[BCPanther]

We're a one bid league going forward. Adding anybody is stupid until we have a clear picture of what the NCAA is going to look like.

I agree on the latter part of your post and disagree on the former. The MVC has been a multiple bid league more times than not in its existence. Granted, there has been a bit of a slippage. This slippage, in my opinion, has been due in part to realignment, covid (sickness and coaches only able to see players on video, not live) and the transfer portal. Once all of the upheaval settles down, as coaches get a better handle on the transfer portal, high school recruiting and NIL, I think the Valley will emerge as a better league. I don’t think anyone on this board can deny that Murray State and Belmont will be big additions to this conference and help with the multiple bid goal. The Valley will regain its multiple-bid status with the quickening. No need to be concerned about that.

There hasn't been slippage. The rules of the game changed.

[BEARZ77]

Whether there's been slippage can be debated, but not the fact the rules have been changed . That's why I just can't see all the angst about expansion at our level; it just won't matter. I'm not against the idea of expansion, I just don't see it doing anything for the holy grail of multi bids when the simple fact is you can't play enough Q1 games as a MM to ever have more than a lottery ticket chance at an at large most years. I've said it before, they came up with the perfect tool and criteria to limit access for 80% of the D-1 teams because the P-5+1 and the networks control noncon scheduling , and the only way a MM gets an at large is noncon scheduling at a level not available 99% of the time.

[TBS_20]

While there may be times when the MVC gets two bids it will be regularly a 1 bid league from here on out.