MVC Games Week 11 2023-24

[BUFanatic]

I don't like to talk about improbable comebacks, guys...

How about dead ball technicals?

[ColonialBulldog]

Can a 19-1 Indiana State and a 17-3 Drake both make the NCAA Tournament?

Just because you brought it up, the 20 game conference schedule is one thing that really gets under my skin. A 19-1 Indiana State and 17-3 Drake is basically almost never going to happen. In the 46 seasons in which 500+ teams have played a 20 game conference schedule, here is the exhaustive list of teams that have gone 17-3 or better. It's basically low-majors and Pac12 teams. To go 20-0, you need to have the greatest shooter of all time playing in a low major conference. (I've got a lot more to say about this, but the best thing that the Valley can do to increase chances of an at-large —that's completely within its control— is go to a 16, 17, or 18 game conference schedule).

17wins.PNG (32.91 KiB) Viewed 2362 times

[BCPanther]

I don't like to talk about improbable comebacks, guys...

How about dead ball technicals?

I will find you....

[tribecalledquest]

Good win by UNI last night. They can certainly score the basketball.

[squirrel]

Can a 19-1 Indiana State and a 17-3 Drake both make the NCAA Tournament?

Just because you brought it up, the 20 game conference schedule is one thing that really gets under my skin. A 19-1 Indiana State and 17-3 Drake is basically almost never going to happen. In the 46 seasons in which 500+ teams have played a 20 game conference schedule, here is the exhaustive list of teams that have gone 17-3 or better. It's basically low-majors and Pac12 teams. To go 20-0, you need to have the greatest shooter of all time playing in a low major conference. (I've got a lot more to say about this, but the best thing that the Valley can do to increase chances of an at-large —that's completely within its control— is go to a 16, 17, or 18 game conference schedule).

17wins.PNG

This will be interesting. It's not impossible. It depends on a few things. Right now, UNI and SIU are just outside the top 100 in the NET (102 and 104, respectively). You need as many teams as possible in the top 100 and 150 to maximize the number of games in each tier.

Indiana State doesn't have any bad losses, but is only 1-3 against Tier 1. Drake is 2-0 against each of Tier 1 and Tier 2, but only 3-3 against Tier 3. These numbers are likely to improve in league.

Right now, Pomeroy game-by-game projects

19-1 Indiana St
17-3 Drake
15-5 Bradley

Keep in mind Bradley's SOS - they have an RPI of 39. That's not the official metric used anymore, but it does appear on a team's resume sheet. Indiana St has an RPI of 25 and Drake is 30.

If Bradley continues its trend of the last couple weeks and maintain early season form, it's a trio of really good teams separating and pushing the league's metrics higher. If the middle tier solidifies spots in top 100 and 150, then absolutely it's a realistic possibility.

[PretzelDawg]

The Salukis totally choked away the game against Bradley last night. When you're winning by 11 with 5 minutes to play, you have to finish the game!

[sivert]

...
Can a 19-1 Indiana State and a 17-3 Drake both make the NCAA Tournament?

I ran a TeamCast on BartTorvik with ISUb winning out, except losing to UNI in the final in St Louis.
That rendered ISUb as a 10 seed and UNI as a 13 seed.

Depends on the NET, which no one can know.

Distasteful as it was, I did a TeamCast with ISUb winning out and losing to Drake in the MVC finals.
That rendered ISUb as a 10 seed and Drake as an 11 seed.

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https://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php ... m=&x5_res=

https://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php ... m=&x5_res=

[BuBrave2006]

A 19-1 Indiana State team that loses on Friday in STL would be 28-4 with a NET in the 30s at worst, 20s maybe but likely in the 10s (teens?, somewhere from 10-19). If that team doesn't get in, I don't know what we are even talking about anymore. Yes it seems like the mid majors get screwed sometimes but there has never been a team with that kind of resume from a top 10 conference that hasn't gotten in.

[BuBrave2006]

I don't like to talk about improbable comebacks, guys...

To be fair, UNI also was on the right side of one of these on Sunday in STL.

[racernation]

All this 19-1 talk with ISU is silly. They gonna lose Sunday