BEARZ77 wrote:MissouriValleyUnite wrote:Murray/Belmont are 2-year sample sizes. Murray came in having lost its entire roster. Belmont hasn't been to the NCAAs since the HOF coach retired 5 years ago. 3 of those in the OVC, 2 in the MVC. Their KenPom has been essentially the same in those 5 years.
You bring up long-time member Illinois St, yet omit long-time members Creighton, Wichita St, Bradley, and Drake.
Sports are a zero-sum game. There's going to be winners and losers, and they always equal out. You can point to winners the MVC benefitted like Creighton, Wichita St, Loyola, & UNI. You can point to programs who ended up on the short end of the stick like Evansville, Missouri St, Illinois St, & Valparaiso. You can rinse/repeat for almost every conference.
No matter what, you'll always end up with equal amounts on both sides of the ledger...because sports are zero-sum. Every example above can be explained away by whether the school nailed their coaching hire, and the timeline of when they nailed it.
I was referencing teams that moved up from lower conferences after 1990 to join the Valley. Creighton and WSU were already there. I wasn't blaming the Valley, just the thinking that moving up is always the right play as we were discussing NKU maybe being hesitant. The facts say it hasn't been a good play for the majority of teams joining since 1990 if the measuring stick is NCAA appearances just prior to moving and then the results since. Obviously Loyola made it work, but also had a bit more $$$$ to work with once they decided to. UNI has had remarkable across the board success, but it did take 12 years to get that 1st NCAA tourney bid after moving. There are lots of other examples both ways, Tulsa chased football and hurt themselves and WSU just shot themselves with moving and Gregg; Davidson is another who has taken a bit of a drop since moving up. On the other hand Creighton and Butler are 2 who have taken advantage of their jump to the BE. Remember Belmont was very hesitant for a number of years. I'm just saying moving between leagues that don't have markedly better NCAA opportunities , which today means most MM leagues, is risky if you have been making the tourney where you're at. Wasn't the case in the 90's so much , but now with the increased push to put every P5 team in the tourney, at MM expense , it's more of a question .
These are both pretty reasonable takes because there are at least two ways to judge success: from a school's perspective and from the conference perspective.
From a school perspective, if you aren't making the NCAA tournaments that you were making in your previous league, you probably hate being a mid-pack team or missing out because you aren't the top dog every year. From a league perspective, you want and need programs that put competitive teams on the court, even if they don't ultimately reach the NCAA tournament.
To wit, Missouri State in 2006 was pivotal in the MVC getting four bids, even though they didn't earn one. That doesn't make Bears fans feel good, but it's true and they've been solid for the vast majority of their time in the league.
Illinois State, while a bit more up-and-down, has shown they can compete in the league, have been in the mix for at-large bids, and have helped others earn bids by fielding good teams.
Mid-major life is a roller-coaster, but joining the MVC or a similar league isn't for everyone.
