Official MVCfans 2011-12 Prediction - 1st Place

[TylerDurden]

This should be an interesting race. With the question marks both teams have, it would be very interesting to see if WSU and CU fans are picking their schools to win or not. I could easily see Pivovar picking WSU and Sullentrop picking CU since they really see each school's weaknesses as the beat reporter for their respective local papers.

I want to believe that this is WSU's year, but Marshall's teams to this point have not shown the ability to close out a season so I'm going to go with the Jays.

I could agree with this, but I also could see each beat writer predicting the home team. On paper, I'd take Creighton, but I picked Wichita State because of several intangibles. While I think McDermott is a good coach, I was less than impressed with some of his decisions last year. Meanwhile, Marshall is a proven commodity. With regards to McDermott, some of what left me scratching my head last year may be due to the fact that it was his first year with the players. There were several switches he made during runs that killed momentum and I also think he tries to manage the clock and leads too early in the game. In my opinion, this led to many scoring droughts. Again, this could be due largely in part of a new coach, teaching a new system and not having "his" players.

The thing I like most about Marshall is how he gets his players motivated and his up tempo style, which allows his playmakers to make plays. At the same time, this style also seemed to backfire a few times last year with what I saw as players tried to make plays that they shouldn't have, sometimes led to guys getting out of control and also led to stupid fouls.

I simply think that Wichita State has enough guys with enough athleticism and experience that the mistakes will be limited.

That may be the X-factor here-the coaches.

Marshall seems to get great athletes who can certainly make a game lop-sided in a hurry, but they also seem to struggle when the game becomes more of an X's and O's chess-match and they just don't seem to come out on top of those scenarios often. When they can get up on teams, they seem able to bury them. When it's close, they don't seem as able to win the dogfights. They've got some good returning parts, but lost a lot as well.

What you have described about Mc's moves align with some of the questioning that UNI fans had of him when he was here. He likes to be in control-Jake, too for that matter. Sure, he's talking about playing up-tempo and using more players (Jake has done that for several years now as well) but it always comes down to slowing the tempo and maintaining control. He's got some talented first-string players to work with. How the depth builds and the newcomers blend will factor in a lot.

For this poll, I am going with WSU. I think they are a little more experienced in the guards and I think that is more beneficial in Valley play.

For my prediction, I will say this: One of the teams that this board has picked to play on Thursday will not and one of the teams this board has picked to finish in the top 2 will not. I know, going out on a limb there.

I agree with that. I picked WSU because I think they'll be able to win enough games with their athleticism and defense to take the title this year, but I think you're spot on about the coaching.

[2livewu]

Good point. Gregg Marshall is one of, if not the worst bench coach in the league. His .667 winning % combined with 10 post season appearances (out of 13), 10 times finishing 1st or 2nd in his conference (77% of the time) and NIT Championship are nothing compared to the accomplishments of the other coaches in the Valley of Death. Everyone knows the Shocks just roll out the ball and hope for the best.

[valleychamp]

Good point. Gregg Marshall is one of, if not the worst bench coach in the league. His .667 winning % combined with 10 post season appearances (out of 13), 10 times finishing 1st or 2nd in his conference (77% of the time) and NIT Championship are nothing compared to the accomplishments of the other coaches in the Valley of Death. Everyone knows the Shocks just roll out the ball and hope for the best.

And he has had a track record of losing some big games, and falling short in some tight situations. Nobody said he was a bad coach.

[capnkirk]

I voted for CU. i think their inside game will be too much for the other valley teams to contain.

[Khan4Cats]

Good point. Gregg Marshall is one of, if not the worst bench coach in the league. His .667 winning % combined with 10 post season appearances (out of 13), 10 times finishing 1st or 2nd in his conference (77% of the time) and NIT Championship are nothing compared to the accomplishments of the other coaches in the Valley of Death. Everyone knows the Shocks just roll out the ball and hope for the best.

And he has had a track record of losing some big games, and falling short in some tight situations. Nobody said he was a bad coach.

WSU was 4-6 last year in games decided by 5 points or less. They were 5-5 the year before in those games. 25-2 in games over 5 points kast year, 19-5 the year before.

[Aargh]

Good point. Gregg Marshall is one of, if not the worst bench coach in the league. His .667 winning % combined with 10 post season appearances (out of 13), 10 times finishing 1st or 2nd in his conference (77% of the time) and NIT Championship are nothing compared to the accomplishments of the other coaches in the Valley of Death. Everyone knows the Shocks just roll out the ball and hope for the best.

And he has had a track record of losing some big games, and falling short in some tight situations. Nobody said he was a bad coach.

WSU was 4-6 last year in games decided by 5 points or less. They were 5-5 the year before in those games. 25-2 in games over 5 points kast year, 19-5 the year before.

Either WSU is weak in close games, or it's very hard to blow WSU out of a game.

One of those is a sign of a poorly coached team and the other is a sign of a well-coached team.

One of the under 5 point losses was to the national champion on a neutral court.

I'm missing the point you're trying to make with those stats.

[SubGod22]

And the other was to a Final Four team.

I'll just say that I wouldn't want any other Valley coach leading this program.

[DoubleJayAlum]

I'm not convinced that Marshall is a great X and O's coach because his teams have yet to win a conference title of either type, yet have had the personnel and have been favored to do so.

I do think that Marshall is pretty good recruiter.

[TylerDurden]

Coaching certainly involves a lot of elements - Xs & Os, motivation, recruiting, playing within the NCAA rules, schmoozing, etc.

I don't think anyone is saying that Marshall is a bad coach. Far from it. The guy has won too many games for anyone to say that he isn't a good coach. He's had two programs competing at a high level. That's impressive.

Fans can spin the stats any way they'd like to spin them. A WSU fan is going to say that WSU is hard to blow out and that's good coaching. A non-WSU fan is going to say they choke and it's Marshall's fault.

Personally, I think Marshall's teams are pretty darn good during the flow of the game and are average, at best, executing set plays -- meaning they'll get it right about half the time and screw it up the other half.

[WSUbballer]

I agree that Marshall has made some questionable calls in some close-game situations that may have cost us a few games or at least decreased greatly the odds of winning those games.

It's also been noted that it is difficult for the Coach to call a timeout during critical times in the game (i.e. long opponent runs).

I agree that he is a hell of a recruiter and a hell of a motivator. But some of the close game decisions have been bothersome.