Do we get 4?

[PowderBlue]

Definitely premature to think the Valley will get four in the big dance, but it's nice to see the AP giving four teams from the MVC a vote at least. Getting votes has always seemed like the hard thing to do. As long as four Valley names are in the conversation (I feel like 1 vote counts)/visible in the polls, it will be a good thing.

That Boise State loss is killing me...

[BirdmanBB]

I don't think it's premature to discuss the potential for 4 as that is exactly where we are at right now. We need to keep winning though and more importantly win as a conference in the rest of our non-con schedules. It is likely that our top 4 teams are going to get beat by some lower half teams in conference play at some point so it is important that those losses aren't too damaging when it happens.

[Aargh]

My crystal ball has been known to lie - a lot, but here's what I see when I gaze into it in December.

If 3 teams establish significant separation from the remaining 7, 3 bids is possible. Not probable, but possible. If 4 teams establish separation from the remaining 6, then the odds of getting 3 bids decreases, unless something unusual happens in St. Lou.

That many teams in a logjam at the top would create some cannibalization and dilute all their W/L records. One or two of the top teams is likely to need to sweep the 4th contender and use those multiple top-50 wins to pad their resume. 4 top-50 teams is a strong possibility, but if those teams all go 1-1 against each other, it doesn't look very impressive on the Committee's evaluation sheets.

Counting on wins over Ohio, Tulsa, and Northwestern to influence the Committee is likely to result in disappointment.

[PowderBlue]

My crystal ball has been known to lie - a lot, but here's what I see when I gaze into it in December.

If 3 teams establish significant separation from the remaining 7, 3 bids is possible. Not probable, but possible. If 4 teams establish separation from the remaining 6, then the odds of getting 3 bids decreases, unless something unusual happens in St. Lou.

That many teams in a logjam at the top would create some cannibalization and dilute all their W/L records. One or two of the top teams is likely to need to sweep the 4th contender and use those multiple top-50 wins to pad their resume. 4 top-50 teams is a strong possibility, but if those teams all go 1-1 against each other, it doesn't look very impressive on the Committee's evaluation sheets.

Counting on wins over Ohio, Tulsa, and Northwestern to influence the Committee is likely to result in disappointment.

I only disagree with this a little, but I don't think it's fair to make that broad of a statement regarding 4 teams. Even if the top teams split with each other, each is going to have 4 in conference top 50 wins. That is helpful. Plus, there is the possibility that the top four will meet in St. Louis as well. It's a long way off, so it's really tough to project, but it's equally as difficult to make the blanket statement that it can't happen. That's my reason for calling the talk of getting 4 in premature...not because the conference COULDN'T, but because there's so much basketball to play that the formula outcomes are pretty widely varied.

[Aargh]

My thought is that if 4 top teams split with each other, then they're all 4-4 against top-50 teams. That's a lot of games against top-50 teams, but it's easy for the Committee to disregard those results because there are as many losses as wins.

Throw in the OOC top-50 games and the "Against the Top 50" column on the Committees evaluation sheet is something like 6-5. That's 6 reasons to include a team and 5 reasons to exclude the team. That can easily put a team on the wrong side of the bubble.

[Smooth007]

I think it still is very premature to be thinking 4. Two is expected and three is a possibility. I was looking at the sagarin ratings by conference this morning. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc1112.htm?loc=interstitialskip The top 10 conferences, as of today, are listed below.

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%

1 BIG TEN = 83.70 83.26 ( 1) 12 83.41 ( 1)
2 BIG 12 = 82.32 82.44 ( 2) 10 82.43 ( 2)
3 BIG EAST = 80.59 80.89 ( 3) 16 80.80 ( 3)
4 MOUNTAIN WEST = 80.14 80.07 ( 5) 8 80.08 ( 4)
5 SOUTHEASTERN = 79.98 80.09 ( 4) 12 80.03 ( 5)
6 ATLANTIC COAST = 79.89 79.97 ( 6) 12 79.99 ( 6)
7 MISSOURI VALLEY = 77.50 76.91 ( 7) 10 77.13 ( 7)
8 ATLANTIC 10 = 77.22 76.49 ( 10) 14 76.70 ( 9)
9 PACIFIC-12 = 77.15 76.83 ( 8) 12 76.99 ( 8)
10 CONFERENCE USA = 76.07 76.61 ( 9) 12 76.51 ( 10)

It is interesting to note that if you take out S. Ill and Evansville, the MVC looks alot like the MWC (4th rated conference).

[Smooth007]

7 MISSOURI VALLEY = 77.50 76.91 ( 7) TEAMS= 10 77.13 ( 7)
College Basketball 2011-2012 Div I games only through 2011 December 18 Sunday
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.80 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
24 Northern Iowa = 85.87 9 1 75.45( 97) 0 1 | 0 1 | 86.72 20 | 84.02 34
26 Creighton = 85.41 8 1 71.09( 261) 0 0 | 1 0 | 85.80 27 | 83.96 35
38 Wichita State = 83.59 8 2 73.98( 154) 1 0 | 1 1 | 81.09 55 | 86.87 19
64 Indiana State = 80.54 7 2 75.28( 104) 0 0 | 0 1 | 82.30 47 | 77.87 98
66 Missouri State = 80.43 5 3 75.72( 88) 0 0 | 0 0 | 77.98 86 | 82.97 43
120 Illinois State = 76.26 7 3 67.59( 331) 0 0 | 0 1 | 72.88 162 | 79.72 79
149 Drake = 73.89 5 4 73.85( 158) 0 1 | 0 2 | 75.58 125 | 70.89 187
160 Bradley = 73.26 5 5 74.10( 146) 0 1 | 0 1 | 74.36 140 | 70.90 186
274 Evansville = 66.85 3 5 70.96( 264) 0 2 | 0 2 | 67.38 267 | 65.07 278
310 Southern Illinois = 62.99 2 4 67.19( 335) 0 0 | 0 1 | 61.68 319 | 63.25 297
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

4 MOUNTAIN WEST = 80.14 80.07 ( 5) TEAMS= 8 80.08 ( 4)
College Basketball 2011-2012 Div I games only through 2011 December 18 Sunday
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.80 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
13 UNLV = 88.42 9 2 77.61( 32) 1 1 | 2 2 | 87.66 18 | 88.26 12
39 San Diego State = 83.40 9 2 74.64( 126) 0 1 | 2 2 | 85.72 28 | 80.50 67
58 New Mexico = 81.13 7 2 74.48( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 79.41 69 | 82.37 49
59 Wyoming = 81.05 9 1 68.81( 315) 0 0 | 0 0 | 79.31 71 | 82.30 51
71 Boise State = 79.97 7 3 70.23( 286) 0 0 | 0 2 | 79.23 74 | 79.75 78
89 Colorado State = 78.43 5 4 78.39( 24) 0 4 | 0 4 | 80.00 64 | 75.80 113
110 TCU = 76.75 6 3 75.81( 85) 1 0 | 1 1 | 79.80 66 | 72.73 158
194 Air Force = 71.41 5 2 64.30( 345) 0 0 | 0 0 | 71.45 191 | 70.28 199
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[PowderBlue]

My thought is that if 4 top teams split with each other, then they're all 4-4 against top-50 teams. That's a lot of games against top-50 teams, but it's easy for the Committee to disregard those results because there are as many losses as wins.

Throw in the OOC top-50 games and the "Against the Top 50" column on the Committees evaluation sheet is something like 6-5. That's 6 reasons to include a team and 5 reasons to exclude the team. That can easily put a team on the wrong side of the bubble.

I do agree with that completely.

Re: Sagarin, I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the computers don't generally like MVC schools as much as I do. Even without the current 9th and 10th ranked teams, though, the Valley would still probably be roughly 6th by his computers. They are seeing a pretty huge drop off after the top five. With ISUb in particular, I wonder if the computers are spitting out that UWGB and Fairfield aren't as good as other rating systems currently have them (Sagarin is probably right if that's the case, tbh), but I don't know how you can ignore the Vandy win and the Minnesota showing. Can't get there from work (but I can get here...weird)...so if anyone wants to share that info, I'd appreciate it!

[MoBraves]

I don't think it's premature to discuss the potential for 4 as that is exactly where we are at right now. We need to keep winning though and more importantly win as a conference in the rest of our non-con schedules. It is likely that our top 4 teams are going to get beat by some lower half teams in conference play at some point so it is important that those losses aren't too damaging when it happens.

I think the weakness of the eventual bottom 4 in the Valley deters any chance to get 4 teams in.
Evansville is perhaps the biggest disappointment this year, and if they had beaten the teams they should have, that would make the conference stronger as a whole.
I still think 3 is a stretch, but could see it happening if a lot of things go right. And yes, the remaining key games before conference play are critical, and we can't downplay the importance of B'busters this year - especially with 3 of the top 4 playing on the road and probably vs. pretty good teams.

[Red]

I think we can get three in. Four would be the perfect storm of a three team runaway in the regular season and a different team winning in STL.