Do we get 4?

[Kip Dynamite]

My thought is that if 4 top teams split with each other, then they're all 4-4 against top-50 teams. That's a lot of games against top-50 teams, but it's easy for the Committee to disregard those results because there are as many losses as wins.

Throw in the OOC top-50 games and the "Against the Top 50" column on the Committees evaluation sheet is something like 6-5. That's 6 reasons to include a team and 5 reasons to exclude the team. That can easily put a team on the wrong side of the bubble.

I do agree with that completely.

Re: Sagarin, I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the computers don't generally like MVC schools as much as I do. Even without the current 9th and 10th ranked teams, though, the Valley would still probably be roughly 6th by his computers. They are seeing a pretty huge drop off after the top five. With ISUb in particular, I wonder if the computers are spitting out that UWGB and Fairfield aren't as good as other rating systems currently have them (Sagarin is probably right if that's the case, tbh), but I don't know how you can ignore the Vandy win and the Minnesota showing. Can't get there from work (but I can get here...weird)...so if anyone wants to share that info, I'd appreciate it!

The Minnesota showing??? Trust me, no one on that committee will care about any showings. It's only wins and losses that will ultimately matter and how those wins and losses look at year end. A good win today may not look quite as good come March as it might today and a bad loss may look a little better.

[PowderBlue]

The Minnesota showing??? Trust me, no one on that committee will care about any showings. It's only wins and losses that will ultimately matter and how those wins and losses look at year end. A good win today may not look quite as good come March as it might today and a bad loss may look a little better.

Absolutely my bad. I thought that RPI took margin of victory into account - unlike the BCS - but some pretty easy research proved me wrong. Sorry about that.

Nothing to see there folks!

[bleach]

I think we are greatly overestimating the fairness of the committee. Any team that is "questionable" will be left out in favor of "potential" from the BCSers.

[Ace Dad]

Birdman, we are biased. We love the Valley. There are several other conferences that will jump into the same discussion. Having four teams with a nice Resume in December is so different from what our Top 4 teams will look like in late Feb or early March.

For example, I want WSU to get an at large bid. That said, WSU better beat the xhit out of Evansville, SIU, Bradley, and a couple of other Valley teams. The Shockers cannot do well in the pre conference and then not beat the Valley teams they are supposed to beat.

Again, we will get two teams. The third team depends on who wins our Tournament. Four teams????? If we get four teams, I will tap dance down St Louis' Main Street on Friday night.

[valleychamp]

I think we are greatly overestimating the fairness of the committee. Any team that is "questionable" will be left out in favor of "potential" from the BCSers.

yep.

[Ace Dad]

To the poster who commented about the weaker Valley teams and Evanville not beating who Evansville is supposed to beat:

Crap. The only thing your team can control is who your team beats. So beat the teams on your schedule, during pre-conference and conference play. In fact, if you win all your pre-conference games and all your conference games and run the table at the Conference Tournament, you will lock in a bid.

The Committee looks at your team's record. So, win your games.

[Aargh]

Anybody who thinks UE is as bad as their early-season record indicates is likely to be mistaken. UE is off to a slow start, but UE has the players and coaching to take out any team in the Valley that's not on their game.

CU has had several seasons where their OOC record was substantially weaker than their performance in Valley play. UE looks like they're doing the same thing this year. UE is just doing it at a different level. When CU did it, they were bringing a 100+ RPI into league play and then playing like an RPI 40 team.

UE is doing it with a 200+ RPI, but going into league play, I expect they will perform like an RPI 100-120 type team. I don't see either Marty or UE's players staying at the level they're playing right now. UE is going to be a dangerous team for the (apparently) 4 Valley teams chasing an at-large bid.

[isumvc1]

Indiana State had a losing non-con record last year (including some losses to BAD teams) and we all know what they did the rest of the season, Evansville is better than what people think, they will win their share of games in MVC play. So here's to the Aces getting a win tonight on the road!

To the poster who commented about the weaker Valley teams and Evanville not beating who Evansville is supposed to beat:

Crap. The only thing your team can control is who your team beats. So beat the teams on your schedule, during pre-conference and conference play. In fact, if you win all your pre-conference games and all your conference games and run the table at the Conference Tournament, you will lock in a bid.

The Committee looks at your team's record. So, win your games.

[Wufan]

Indiana State had a losing non-con record last year (including some losses to BAD teams) and we all know what they did the rest of the season, Evansville is better than what people think, they will win their share of games in MVC play. So here's to the Aces getting a win tonight on the road!

And the Trees poor non-con was the main reason why MSU didn't make the dance...

[cpacmel]

Indiana State had a losing non-con record last year (including some losses to BAD teams) and we all know what they did the rest of the season, Evansville is better than what people think, they will win their share of games in MVC play. So here's to the Aces getting a win tonight on the road!

And the Trees poor non-con was the main reason why MSU didn't make the dance...

I don't think WuFan. Probably had more to do with losing to Evansville last year and then laying an egg in the BB vs. Valpo.

Mo State had 10 chances for top 100 wins last year. They ended up with 3. Including one over Indy State.