Could UNI Play Their Way Back on the Bubble?

[MSUDuo]

Yes.

Win Wednesday and we can really start talking...

[PantherSigEp]

Normally, I'd like to think they could. I mean they still have the reasonably solid RPI.

Sir, this is the MVC. I think all of us know the danger in using the RPI as a fall back.

[Wufan]

UNI is a legit DISCUSSION team if they win the next 6 (Would that be 10 in a row?). Beat CU or WSU in St. Louis to advance to the finals, and I think they'd be in, though it might be at the expense of WSU.

[CaseyGarrisonforPrez]

If Iowa State was considered a good bet for an at large, hopoefully some of those same people reevaluate Northern Iowa's resume.

With where we sit today Iowa State is clearly in and UNI still has a lot of work to do. The head to head win is nice but Iowa State has a #36 vs. #49 advantage in RPI. Both teams are similar in top 50 W-L, ISU is 2-4 and UNI is 3-3. The real difference comes down to the bad losses category. ISU only has Drake who is 121 RPI or so. UNI has Bradley 229, Illinois State 114, Evansville 162, and Indiana State 116.

The other factor is simply that people nationally will take notice of ISU's wins over Kansas and K-State. They also still have plenty of chances to get great wins and are only one game back in the Big XII race. Better resume at this point despite the head to head game.

[valleychamp]

Normally, I'd like to think they could. I mean they still have the reasonably solid RPI.

They'd pretty much have to win out, especially @ Wichita.

But I can also think of 1 very solid reason to keep them out: Bradley.

Throw in a loss at SIU and you have 2 losses against the lowest rated RPI teams in the league. That most assuredly will not gain you an invite.

Of course on February 8 in 2006, Bradley suffered its 2nd consecutive loss and was sitting at 13-9 and 7-7, and we didn't have a premier BB matchup (Tenn Tech).

On the other hand, when we were a better end-to-end team in 2007 with an NCAA resume AND premier BB win in hand (@ VCU on ESPN2) we didn't get it.

So who knows?

Fwiw, UNI did not lose to SIU. (yet anyway..)

[pafan]

Looking at this morning's Sagarin ratings, I awarded each conference's autobid to the team with the best rating (not necessarily that conference's team with the best record)

After doing that, the non automatic qualifiers were awarded bids based soley on their ranking.

It turns out that doing it this way gives us the first four out (italics are BCS members):
NC State
Missouri State
Xavier
Akron

The second four
La Salle
St. Joseph's
Washington
South Dakota St

And the third four:
Northern Iowa
Miami
VA Tech
Northwestern

As we all know by now, the committee isn't so much interested in rankings, but they will give us an opportunity to when Northwestern gets in and Northern Iowa does not. And of course, we have no idea whether Penn State will come out of nowhere and win the B1G tournament to take away one of the bubble slots.

[getreal4]

how much does it help the panthers to have a big home crowd? would this team have beat Wichita St a couple of weeks ago with a packed home court?

if the panthers finish outside of the bubble was the lack of home support partly to blame?

[UNIFanSince1983]

The way the question is posed the answer has to be: yes. We COULD play our way back onto the bubble. There is, however, only one way I see it happening. We must win out in the regular season. That would mean wins @WSU and @VCU. That also means no more bad losses. We will also need at least two wins in STL one of which needs to be over WSU or CU. That would give us two wins over either CU or WSU.

This is all that needs to happen. No big deal right?

[getreal4]

Improvement from Mitchell helps the panthers have a chance. And if the big guys don't disappear for long stretches... And AJ stays healthy...

[uniftw]

I would like to think it can....however, it needs to be an almost perfect storm for it to happen.


1. UNI can't lose to anyone other than WSU or VCU, but not both and it must be a very close loss.
2. UNI must beat the remaining MVC teams by an average of 9+ points
3. WSU, CU, and VCU have to win out (outside of the UNI games)
4. UNI must make a run to the semi's to be in the room of discussion....title game to be in the discussion
5. A couple bubble teams need to falter pretty heaviliy.


So yes, it could happen...but likely won't.

What is disappointing is that yesterdays performance is what this team is capable of every night as we saw in OOC play. However, one bad loss started a chain reaction and a snowball event. However, I'm hoping that is starting to turn around.


BTW, once Mitchell finds his jump shot he will be damn near ungaurdable.