Looking ahead - predictions for 2012-13

[MikeKennedyRulz]

Shockers will finish top 3, and that's all I care about.

[DUBulldog]

5. Drake, size and experience will get you mid-pack w/o a PG.

I think Bulldogs will be better at point guard than you realize.

That might be the case. Can you tell me why? I like to hear about fellow teams!

No problem. Actually, a couple of reasons....First, Drake's starting point guard this year was a freshman. Not a lot of guys come in as freshman point guards and "get it" right away.....Nic Moore being an exception. Based on a lot of years of watching college basketball, I expect a large amount of improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons.

Secondly, Drake adds 2 point guards with this year's recruiting class. The first is Richard Carter, a juco point guard from Cloud County in Kansas.....he was the freshman of the year in his conference last season, and as people who follow juco ball know, the Jayhawk conference is very good. He's averaging 19 ppg, 5+ assists per game on a team with 20+ wins. I expect him to step in and push for the starting job from day 1. The big question, as with most juco players, is how long will it take him to adjust to D1 ball.

Lastly, Drake is also bringing in a high school point guard from the Pittsburg area, Micah Mason. Mason scored 2000+ points during his high school career. Averaged 33 ppg as a junior and a shade under 30 as a senior, despite being double teamed in every game but one. He's a good ballhandler and passer, but is known for his shooting. He had one game his junior year where he scored 63 points.....on only 19 shots! There is a quote I can dig up from some former Duquesne player who's still in the Pittsburgh area....I paraphrase here, but it was something along the lines of "Micah Mason is the best shooter I have ever seen.....and I was in the Boston Celtic camp with Larry Bird". Butler coach Brad Stevens made a similar comment after watching one of Mason's workouts.

So, to summarize a long post, the freshman starter who I expect to make great strides between this year and next might just end up being 3rd string.

Bulldogs return all 5 starters and add 2-year starter Seth Van Deest who missed all of this season, as well as Reece Uhlenhopp who missed all of this season.

Bulldogs tied for 3rd this season.....it's not unreasonable to suggest that they could have finished alone in 3rd if they weren't missing Van Deest and Uhlenhopp (all they would have had to do is win one more game). Returning all 5 starters from a team that was T-3 plus adding in a couple of key pieces who missed the season......I will be disappointed with anything less than a 3rd place finish for the Bulldogs next season.

[getreal4]

following up on DUB's excellent post re Drake pt guards

healthy Rice, Simons, and Van Deest will take a lot of offensive pressure off of the pt guard next season. I believe that Madison has the ability to be a premier MVC pt guard on both ends of the court. I seriously doubt that either incoming recruit will be better defensively than Madison.

[BirdmanBB]

I agree. I think a healthy Drake can be a very good team next year. I really like CU, ISU, UNI and Drake next year. I also think there is going to be enough separation from the top half and the bottom half while retaining a strong conference overall. We just need to get those non-conference wins next year. What do the non-con schedules look like so far?

ISU has...

South Padre (2home/2neutral)
Western Mich
MVC/MWC Challenge (home game)
@Bracketbuster

With CU already playing Boise St. in the challenge I really hope ISU draws SDSU. Nevada would probably be ok too though.

[Khan4Cats]

UNI's schedule next year so far:

Milwaukee-Home
George Mason-Road (return BB from 11)
Virginia Commonwealth-Home (possible return from this year's BB)
UNLV-Road (MVC-MWC)
Iowa or Iowa State-"neutral" apparently
St. Mary's-Home
Ohio-Road
Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament (Duke, Louisville, Missouri, Memphis, Minnesota, Stanford, VCU)

I'm thinking the schedule has a chance to be decent, hopefully the team can be ready for it.

[valleychamp]

UNI has a great schedule lined up for next year already. I have a hard time seeing anybody else having a more challenging schedule than that.

[mecha_bulldog]

Lastly, Drake is also bringing in a high school point guard from the Pittsburg area, Micah Mason. Mason scored 2000+ points during his high school career. Averaged 33 ppg as a junior and a shade under 30 as a senior, despite being double teamed in every game but one. He's a good ballhandler and passer, but is known for his shooting. He had one game his junior year where he scored 63 points.....on only 19 shots! There is a quote I can dig up from some former Duquesne player who's still in the Pittsburgh area....I paraphrase here, but it was something along the lines of "Micah Mason is the best shooter I have ever seen.....and I was in the Boston Celtic camp with Larry Bird". Butler coach Brad Stevens made a similar comment after watching one of Mason's workouts.

The other thing about Mason is he had a major health scare last summer. For most of the past offseason, the most physical activity he could do was ride a bike and shoot free throws on a very limited basis. When he stepped onto the court this fall he had basically lost an offseason's worth of development and conditioning, and he still averaged almost 30ppg as a hs senior with defenses focused on him. It sounds like he's fully recovered now, so hopefully he'll make some big strides before fall.

[Jet915]

I agree. I think a healthy Drake can be a very good team next year. I really like CU, ISU, UNI and Drake next year. I also think there is going to be enough separation from the top half and the bottom half while retaining a strong conference overall. We just need to get those non-conference wins next year. What do the non-con schedules look like so far?

ISU has...

South Padre (2home/2neutral)
Western Mich
MVC/MWC Challenge (home game)
@Bracketbuster

With CU already playing Boise St. in the challenge I really hope ISU draws SDSU. Nevada would probably be ok too though.

What other teams are in the South Padre tournament?

[FeartheQ]

Team chemistry killed the Bears last year... As long as the new freshman can mesh with our core group we will be alright. A familiar trend for the Bears, a lot of unknown faces coming in next year... Hopefully someone can shoot the ball.

[Wufan]

No problem. Actually, a couple of reasons....First, Drake's starting point guard this year was a freshman. Not a lot of guys come in as freshman point guards and "get it" right away.....Nic Moore being an exception. Based on a lot of years of watching college basketball, I expect a large amount of improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons.

Secondly, Drake adds 2 point guards with this year's recruiting class. The first is Richard Carter, a juco point guard from Cloud County in Kansas.....he was the freshman of the year in his conference last season, and as people who follow juco ball know, the Jayhawk conference is very good. He's averaging 19 ppg, 5+ assists per game on a team with 20+ wins. I expect him to step in and push for the starting job from day 1. The big question, as with most juco players, is how long will it take him to adjust to D1 ball.

Lastly, Drake is also bringing in a high school point guard from the Pittsburg area, Micah Mason. Mason scored 2000+ points during his high school career. Averaged 33 ppg as a junior and a shade under 30 as a senior, despite being double teamed in every game but one. He's a good ballhandler and passer, but is known for his shooting. He had one game his junior year where he scored 63 points.....on only 19 shots! There is a quote I can dig up from some former Duquesne player who's still in the Pittsburgh area....I paraphrase here, but it was something along the lines of "Micah Mason is the best shooter I have ever seen.....and I was in the Boston Celtic camp with Larry Bird". Butler coach Brad Stevens made a similar comment after watching one of Mason's workouts.

So, to summarize a long post, the freshman starter who I expect to make great strides between this year and next might just end up being 3rd string.

Bulldogs return all 5 starters and add 2-year starter Seth Van Deest who missed all of this season, as well as Reece Uhlenhopp who missed all of this season.

Bulldogs tied for 3rd this season.....it's not unreasonable to suggest that they could have finished alone in 3rd if they weren't missing Van Deest and Uhlenhopp (all they would have had to do is win one more game). Returning all 5 starters from a team that was T-3 plus adding in a couple of key pieces who missed the season......I will be disappointed with anything less than a 3rd place finish for the Bulldogs next season.

Thanks for the info! I was not aware of Micah Mason (sounds like a great get) and Carter is a very good juco get. With those two in the fold next year along with Madson (who I thought was a very good freshman) I will likely bump Drake in the fall predictions, once rosters are more set. The Rice/Simons/Van Deest combination will be tough to beat and with the other three upperclassmen PFs on the team and Jeffers, Drake really does have the talent to win the Valley.

The top of the Valley might be quite a bit stronger next year (we'll see). CU is an easy pick for #1, but it is difficult to put any of the three; Ill St, Drake, or UNI, as the fourth best team in the conference.