Conference Realignment - May 1

[TheAsianSensation]

Using the scenario posted above (which is very realistic IMO), there's a chance the entire MVC football conference could be a 2nd level conference. The XDSU's probably have enough resources to be in it. Youngstown I think would commit. Maybe WIU won't be able to make the jump and get left behind.

Long story short, I don't think a 14-team CUSA will last. MWC is content at 9. Sun Belt at 10. 8-12 team conferences will be the norm in this 2nd tier, with a strong lean to 8, 9, or 10.

Obviously whatever rule the NCAA comes up with will make a big impact on how it goes all down. But it's possible UNI, ISU, etc can avoid making a FBS commitment before the split.

[pafan]

So the WAC and the Sun Belt are teetering on the brink of collapse, with five and six members respectively.

If the WAC can't find a sixth member for 2014, they will lose their NCAA autobids in all sports but baseball where they have associate members.

The Sun Belt might lose Western Kentucky and the two Louisiana schools to CUSA tomorrow.

Would a WAC/Sun Belt merger make any sense?

[TheAsianSensation]

So the WAC and the Sun Belt are teetering on the brink of collapse, with five and six members respectively.

If the WAC can't find a sixth member for 2014, they will lose their NCAA autobids in all sports but baseball where they have associate members.

The Sun Belt might lose Western Kentucky and the two Louisiana schools to CUSA tomorrow.

Would a WAC/Sun Belt merger make any sense?

New Mexico St and Idaho used to play football in the Sun Belt. It ended badly for everyone. I doubt that happens unless they run out of options.

I think the SUn Belt will be fine. I doubt the two Louisiana schools move, actually. Plus, there's a few FCS teams that can move up still. There's ammunition there.

The WAC is so freaking dead.

[uniftw]

Using the scenario posted above (which is very realistic IMO), there's a chance the entire MVC football conference could be a 2nd level conference. The XDSU's probably have enough resources to be in it. Youngstown I think would commit. Maybe WIU won't be able to make the jump and get left behind.

Long story short, I don't think a 14-team CUSA will last. MWC is content at 9. Sun Belt at 10. 8-12 team conferences will be the norm in this 2nd tier, with a strong lean to 8, 9, or 10.

Obviously whatever rule the NCAA comes up with will make a big impact on how it goes all down. But it's possible UNI, ISU, etc can avoid making a FBS commitment before the split.

Remember that the all of this re-alignment stuff started almost the second after the NCAA's moratorium on realignment was lifted. There was some shuffling before that, but it was just a couple here/a couple there. Prior to that being lifted a FCS team was prohibited from moving to the FBS. As soon as that was lifted it was like the wall in front of the flood gate being opened. Schools could now see what was on the other side, smell it, touch it, talk to it, etc... but the gate has, for the most part, still been there.

Apparently, lifting the moratorium also opened the flood gates for FBS re-alignment...which is looking more and more every day like it will lead to the flood gate for FCS programs.


The risk of not moving is being left in tier 3 and a moratorium thrown back into place trying to slow things down and calm it a little.....and being stuck in tier 3 for a very long time, which could have some real consequences that could hurt the programs.

The risk of moving to the current FBS is far outweighed by the rewards. The worst that could happen is that after all of the shifting you settle in the second tier of football, even if it is the low end of tier 2....which is all most schools are seeking right now. The potential upside here is catching the right wave and being able to ride it for a while and end up in a much better spot.


To me it seems like a no-brainer. The ACC is now the Big East, Big East now CUSA, CUSA now Sun Belt...the Sun Belt was mostly FCS programs that moved up a while ago. That's a pretty decent progression to follow for the southern schools like App State, Georgia Southern, James Madison, etc...

If the MVFC schools can find a way into the Sub Belt for football only, or even into the MAC/CUSA/MWC there is almost zero risk that can't/won't be outweighed in the future...baring a BCS split from the NCAA.



The fear of being left behind is very real. UNI made the move from the new D2 to the new D1 in 1981, when most said it was a dumb thing to do, UNI couldn't afford it, etc... basically the same thing we are hearing about the split between the FCS/FBS now. They did it to get a head of the pack and garauntee themselves a seat at the table...even it the seat wasn't always comfortable and a little squished. It appears UNI is willing to take that risk again, should the opportunity come up....I'd hope that ISUr, SIU, and MSU are willing to do the same. I know for a fact NDSU is going to jump at their first invitation. Their administration and fans are still pissed they were 30 years behind on the first wave with not moving D1 until 2008.

[TheAsianSensation]

Apparently, lifting the moratorium also opened the flood gates for FBS re-alignment...which is looking more and more every day like it will lead to the flood gate for FCS programs.

I'd say Jim Delany was the one who opened the floodgates. The NCAA would've lifted any moratorium in place if it meant the Sun Belt and/or WAC's survival at the time. Timing was a coincidence more than anything.

There's definitely a risk of a new moratorium, but my hunch is that won't happen for a bit, or along with the caveat that you can move up as an independent. I just see too many lawsuits entering. Again, harping on App State as an example, if they spend years and years wanting to move up to FBS, only to find everyone's full, followed by the moratorium....I think the NCAA would lose that legal battle.

The risk of not moving is being left in tier 3 and a moratorium thrown back into place trying to slow things down and calm it a little.....and being stuck in tier 3 for a very long time, which could have some real consequences that could hurt the programs.

The risk of moving to the current FBS is far outweighed by the rewards. The worst that could happen is that after all of the shifting you settle in the second tier of football, even if it is the low end of tier 2....which is all most schools are seeking right now. The potential upside here is catching the right wave and being able to ride it for a while and end up in a much better spot.


To me it seems like a no-brainer. The ACC is now the Big East, Big East now CUSA, CUSA now Sun Belt...the Sun Belt was mostly FCS programs that moved up a while ago. That's a pretty decent progression to follow for the southern schools like App State, Georgia Southern, James Madison, etc...

If the MVFC schools can find a way into the Sub Belt for football only, or even into the MAC/CUSA/MWC there is almost zero risk that can't/won't be outweighed in the future...baring a BCS split from the NCAA.

RIght now, by 2014, I did the math - there will be 250 D1 football teams, ranging from FBS to FCS, and including non-scholarship programs, SWAC, MEAC, Pioneer, everybody.

Tier 1: Your 4x16 breakaway, maybe some independent stragglers, we'll say 70 teams.
Tier 2: The remaining current FBS teams, about 60 teams, and maybe the top 20-40 FCS programs
Tier 3: The bottom 90 or so teams.

The key, and you're right, is Tier 3. Tier 3 includes: The SWAC and MEAC (ew), who I theorize would skip any playoff of any kind and play each other in a postseason bowl game of sorts....the Pioneer League, who just play each other and are content...the Patriot League, of whom I get the feeling won't care for a postseason....the Ivies, who definitely don't....and even some of the Northeast Conference league members. That's a good 45-50 members who really have no place in a playoff structure for a postseason. If you get trapped with them, that's bad.

I think Tier 2 will want to cap the number of programs short of 100. They don't want to bloat, and they want to limit the discrepancy between the "haves" and "have nots" within their tier. I always thought they could form something like 8 conferences of, say, 12 teams, and form a nice neat 8-team postseason. Or 16 team playoff with 12 smaller conferences, or whatever. You can really create a compact package that would work.

I think the MVC en masse could be a part of it. MVC, CAA, and Big Sky are the 3 conferences I think that would be fighting each other for, say, 15-20 spots as part of it. I'd also say Southland, but a fair chunk of them are moving up already. It's the Big South and OVC in trouble for the time being. If you're trapped in Tier 3 playing a 4 team playoff with the OVC champ, Big South champ, and leftover Southland champ, that's truly irrelevance.

[Khan4Cats]

As far as football goes, keep an eye on the service academies. If they insist on staying at the 'highest level' as they did 30 years ago, then the whole BCS break-away is not likely to happen. If they are willing to slide into the second tier, where they would actually be much more competitive, then the separation is more likely.

I don't know if it will happen quite as TAS outlined, the Patriot League has clung to their AQ play-off status tenaciously and I don't see them willingly dropping down. The SWAC and Ivy both do their own things, but I don't see the OVC, MEAC, Big South and others willingly giving up their play-off spots, either. Pioneer League and Northeast have only just recently been given play-off spots and I don't see them willing to back away either.

If the NCAA were to come in with some system that did away conferences for football-purposes only, splitting into districts with scholarship/expenditure limits as part to be in one of two sub-BcS levels, then you may see the split happen even faster as different schools in the same conference could decide which way they want to go without breaking up the conference for other sports.

This is all dealing only with current D-1 football, I don't see any changes in the structure of D-2 and D-3.

[TheAsianSensation]

I don't know if it will happen quite as TAS outlined, the Patriot League has clung to their AQ play-off status tenaciously and I don't see them willingly dropping down. The SWAC and Ivy both do their own things, but I don't see the OVC, MEAC, Big South and others willingly giving up their play-off spots, either. Pioneer League and Northeast have only just recently been given play-off spots and I don't see them willing to back away either.

Well of course none of them will want to. But when the NCAA barges in and re-defines the requirements for the three tiers, they won't have the attendance or budget required to be in tier 2. IMO.

Plus, FCS playoffs as is are a bit bloated.

As far as football goes, keep an eye on the service academies. If they insist on staying at the 'highest level' as they did 30 years ago, then the whole BCS break-away is not likely to happen. If they are willing to slide into the second tier, where they would actually be much more competitive, then the separation is more likely.

I'm not sure they hold that power anymore. Also, they're becoming divergent - Army bombed out of CUSA and won't join a conference, while Navy seems to want to go as high as possible, while Air Force's preference is to be in a second tier conference and compete within themselves. 3 agendas.

[Khan4Cats]

So the WAC and the Sun Belt are teetering on the brink of collapse, with five and six members respectively.

If the WAC can't find a sixth member for 2014, they will lose their NCAA autobids in all sports but baseball where they have associate members.

The Sun Belt might lose Western Kentucky and the two Louisiana schools to CUSA tomorrow.

Would a WAC/Sun Belt merger make any sense?

New Mexico St and Idaho used to play football in the Sun Belt. It ended badly for everyone. I doubt that happens unless they run out of options.

I think the SUn Belt will be fine. I doubt the two Louisiana schools move, actually. Plus, there's a few FCS teams that can move up still. There's ammunition there.

The WAC is so freaking dead.

The WAC has added Grand Canyon University and Texas-Pan American

http://www.wacsports.com/ViewArticle.db ... =205781174

http://www.themonitor.com/sports/utpa_b ... 0f31a.html

[TheAsianSensation]

Your 2014-2015 WAC conference is still one team short of being eligible of recognition as a conference.

Seattle, who only joined because no other conference would take them since they moved up
New Mexico St, who's really only here because they want to stay in FBS football
Grand Canyon - a brand new school from D2
Texas-Pan American - a school so putrid, the Southland conference chose to elevate programs from D2 instead of adding UTPA
Utah Valley - relative D1 newbie who was independent their whole life before this
Cal St-Bakersfield - a school so putrid, they can't get into a conference, the Big West, literally full with universities in the California system

[shoxrox]

I remember back in 1995 when the WAC was formed. It was dubbed as a "super conference". It was really the first conference to go with 16 teams.

Who would have thought 17 years later it was whittled away to nothing, with D2s and the lowest of D1 making up its teams?