MVC Power Rankings - December 2 edition

[pafan]

I think Wufan has it down. And there's a very limited window where his scenario might work:

Two very good teams (Top 25 RPI):
CU
WSU

Third good team (Top 30 RPI)
IlSU

Fourth team to win Arch Madness (Top 50 RPI)
UNI (still need 2-3 more non-con wins)

Other Top RPI 100 teams:
DU (would need to go 5-0 in remaining NC schedule, IMO)
BU (win over VA tech would go a long way)

Moral Victory Conference Members:
MSU (too many bad losses already)
SIU (weak non-con schedule)
InSU (weak non-con schedule)
UE (weak non-con schedule)

[shoxrox]

Even with a tough SOS, a 10-loss Valley team will not get an at-large bid. So assuming UNI gets a couple of wins against those other strong remaining teams, 1 more loss puts them to 4. Obviously, you'd lose 1 more in the conference tourney if you don't receive the auto. That's 5. That means UNI would need to go 14-4 or better in the Valley. Is that possible? I suppose. But I don't think it's too likely.

Yes, I used the arbitrary 10-loss number. I just don't think the Valley gets THAT much respect to give a team with 10 losses an at-large. I believe Bradley might have had 10 losses (not sure) back in 2006, but outside of that zinger of year (don't see that type of year in the Valley this year, especially already considering the so-so non-con results), I don't think it's happened.

And on a sidenote, I love your avatar pafan!

[DoubleJayAlum]

Even with a tough SOS, a 10-loss Valley team will not get an at-large bid. So assuming UNI gets a couple of wins against those other strong remaining teams, 1 more loss puts them to 4. Obviously, you'd lose 1 more in the conference tourney if you don't receive the auto. That's 5. That means UNI would need to go 14-4 or better in the Valley. Is that possible? I suppose. But I don't think it's too likely.

Yes, I used the arbitrary 10-loss number. I just don't think the Valley gets THAT much respect to give a team with 10 losses an at-large. I believe Bradley might have had 10 losses (not sure) back in 2006, but outside of that zinger of year (don't see that type of year in the Valley this year, especially already considering the so-so non-con results), I don't think it's happened.

And on a sidenote, I love your avatar pafan!

I agree with Baller --- good analysis.

At a certain number of losses, people stop saying, "look at that schedule strength" and start saying, "they couldn't beat anybody good."

[shoxrox]

I'm not predicting a conference title but I think Illinois State is good enough to beat Creighton and Wichita in conference play. We need to run the table the rest of the way in the OOC games now.

Also bad enough to blow 19 point second half leads and lose by 14.

[Ricardo del Rio]

[b]Just moments ago, I saw how scary good the Red Birds were against Wyoming. It was frightening.[/b]

[pafan]

At a certain number of losses, people stop saying, "look at that schedule strength" and start saying, "they couldn't beat anybody good."

Or, in the case of ISUr, "Couldn't beat anybody even though they had big second half leads." What is that, two games now that they've had 10+ point leads and lost?

And on a sidenote, I love your avatar pafan!

Can't take the credit for the text, one of you posted that in one of the UE threads last week. Too good to pass up.

[valleychamp]

Even with a tough SOS, a 10-loss Valley team will not get an at-large bid. So assuming UNI gets a couple of wins against those other strong remaining teams, 1 more loss puts them to 4. Obviously, you'd lose 1 more in the conference tourney if you don't receive the auto. That's 5. That means UNI would need to go 14-4 or better in the Valley. Is that possible? I suppose. But I don't think it's too likely.

Yes, I used the arbitrary 10-loss number. I just don't think the Valley gets THAT much respect to give a team with 10 losses an at-large. I believe Bradley might have had 10 losses (not sure) back in 2006, but outside of that zinger of year (don't see that type of year in the Valley this year, especially already considering the so-so non-con results), I don't think it's happened.

And on a sidenote, I love your avatar pafan!

UNI got at-large bids in '05 with 9 losses, and '06 with 10 losses. Both of which came with far weaker non-conf schedules than what UNI has this year. Plus, there are 4 more spots to be had as well with the new tournament format.

It has been done before.

[shoxrox]

UNI got at-large bids in '05 with 9 losses, and '06 with 10 losses. Both of which came with far weaker non-conf schedules than what UNI has this year. Plus, there are 4 more spots to be had as well with the new tournament format.

It has been done before.

So, it has happened before. UNI did it in 2006 and Bradley (I think) did it in 2006. But you missed this part of my post:

I believe Bradley might have had 10 losses (not sure) back in 2006, but outside of that zinger of year (don't see that type of year in the Valley this year, especially already considering the so-so non-con results), I don't think it's happened.

Is 2012-13 really shaping up to be a 2005-06 type year in the Valley? Does the Valley have a victory over a ranked team yet? Is the Valley really destined to finish 6th in the RPI? Is the Valley's overall record on line with what 2005-06 put together?

I wouldn't put a dime down on a 10-loss team getting an at-large bid this year. You may think so, but I don't think you can than argue the original point that the margin of error for a team like UNI is now very thin.

[GoShockers89]

.

[Aargh]

A lot has changed since '05-'06. The Valley scheduled up in the non-con - and then won most of those games. In 2006, I believe InSU had a single-digit RPI going into league play.

The BCS-affiliated schools raised hell because the Valley had "tricked the RPI system". Now, the BCS-affiliated schools schedule a couple games with each other in OOC play. That solves the SoS beatdown they took in '05-'06 when they scheduled nothing but cream puffs. The Valley was knocking down road wins against top-100 RPI teams while the BCS-affiliated schools were racking up home wins over RPI 250+ schools.

When the BCS-affiliated schools were scheduling nothing but cupcakes and the Valley had a mandate to schedule high-quality OOC games, there was a window of opportunity for the Valley to have decent quality W's compared to the BCS-affiliated schools.

Now that those schools are scheduling each other, there's a winner and a loser in those games. The winner gets a big boost for the quality win, and the loser doesn't take a hit for losing to a quality opponent. The environment is different now than it was 6 or 7 years ago.