Bracketology 2012-2013

[TheAsianSensation]

I'm going to finally get my first bracket of the year up by tomorrow, but it's going to be terribly boring for the MVC. 2 in and no one else reasonable close enough as of now. MVC might get to take most of February off in terms of media and bubble spotlight.

What might be more fascinating is the NIT race. I'm starting to get nervous that the Valley might get shut out. We gotta get someone to 11-7 in the conference to feel good about it, but can anyone find a team they trust to get there? InSU's overall record makes me nervous despite their shiny SoS.

[pafan]

I think the odds of Evansville or Indiana State (not necessarily both) reaching 11-7 are pretty good. 12-6 if one team can sweep the other.

[Deanthonybowdenfan]

Very possible we only get one team in.

[shoxrox]

Very possible we only get one team in.

Excellent analysis. Very possible.

Creighton better win the Valley Tournament.

[JaysFinal4]

Creighton better win the Valley Tournament.

Haha. You better hope Creighton DOESN'T win the Valley Tournament. The way things are headed for the Shockers, that might be the only way the MVC gets 2 teams in the Dance. Creighton is about as much of a lock for the tournament as possible, barring a collapse of epic proportions.

[shoxrox]

Yep, 2nd loss in 17 games, WSU is definitely headed the other direction. NIT bubble at the moment.

Just curious about your name. Shouldn't you focus first on Sweet 16 (since you've never been) rather than on Final 4?

[cu8493]

Given WSU's nonconference success, I believe they will be in even if they are swept by CU, as long as they don't stumble again against anyone else. Or, they could split with CU and probably afford to lose one more road game (to a better than 100 RPI school). Or, they could sweep CU and probably lose 2 other road games (to better than 100 RPI schools), and still get an at large - probably an 11-13 seed, however. They better hold serve at home, however, except losing at home to CU I don't think would kill them. Odd as it may seem, splitting with CU, but each winning on the other's home court might actually benefit becuase it gives both a top 50 road win at the end of the day (assuming neither collapses otherwise and falls out of top 50 RPI).

[shocktheheart]

Lunadi's new bracket out. Creighton a #4, WSU #5, and Indiana St is 6th team left out.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[TheAsianSensation]

Whoops, I did these Sunday and didn't migrate them over. To be honest, there's not much here to see from an MVC standpoint. Creighton around the 3-4 line and WSU around the 5-6 line, but I haven't gone to a full-blown S-Curve yet.

TAS BUBBLE WATCH

Al Gore's Lockbox (54 teams):

*important note: The lockbox doesn't mean I think all of these teams are locks for the NCAA tournament. What it means is that these teams would be considered locks if the tournament started today compared to their competition. This early in the proceedings, the actual lockbox would be quite small, so we're going with a different concept this time.

B1G (7): Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan St, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Illinois
MWC (5): New Mexico, Colorado St, Wyoming, UNLV, San Diego St
BEast (5): Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
ACC (3): Duke, North Carolina St, Miami
Pac 12 (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
SEC (3): Florida, Missouri, Mississippi
Big 12 (2): Kansas, Kansas St
A-10 (2): Butler, VCU
MVC (2): Creighton, Wichita St
WCC (1): Gonzaga
One-bid conferences that may produce an at-large bid (3): CUSA (Southern Miss, Memphis), Sun Belt (Middle Tenenssee), Ohio Valley (Belmont)
One-bid conferences likely to not have an at-large bid (4), but not 100% sure yet: Horizon, WAC, MAC, Summit
Definitive one-bid leagues (14)

14 bubble spots are left:

Reasonably in: Boise St, North Carolina, Colorado, Arizona St, Temple, Oklahoma St
Next 4 in: Iowa St, Georgetown, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Last 4 in: Pittsburgh, Baylor, BYU, Kentucky

Last 4 out: St Louis, Memphis, St Joseph's, Maryland
Other reasonable candidates: St Mary's, Indiana St, Alabama, LaSalle, Washington, Florida St, Rutgers

Break it down!
B1G 7
BEast 7
MWC 6
Big 12 6
Pac 12 5
SEC 5
ACC 4
A-10 3
MVC 2
WCC 2

Takeaways:
1) I see the B1G morphing into 7 haves and 5 have nots rather quickly. No drama there.
2) ACC is projected a bit low - odds are a 5th team will emerge, just not sure who yet
3) Pac 12 and Big 12 seem to be projected at their peak totals at the moment. Big 12 is definitely at maximum capacity and almost certainly will fall to 5 bids by March due to sheer attrition
4) A-10 should end up with 4, maybe 5. Their problem is the same as the ACC - I can't identify those teams yet
5) The MWC is a favorite to get 6 bids. Deal with it

And finally....
6) It's early. Don't read hardly anything into my ordering of teams on the bubble. It's going to shift around plenty of times in the next 2 months.

[TheAsianSensation]

Creighton is now in big-time trouble as far as getting a Kansas City regional. Going into yesterday I thought they could hold off Minnesota and Missouri for that regional, but they just burned off a lot of their margin of error.

If Wichita can find 16-2 with a road win over Creighton somewhere, now they can start thinking about getting the Kansas City regional.