horacepinker wrote:Two totally contrasting styles. One will impose their will on the other, that team will win. Anyone that thinks they can predict which team will win when 2 really good teams play is an egomaniac or insecure or both. I hope that the Shox and their "athletic" style come out on top, but I have no clue what will actually happen.
I totally agree.
Creighton is the BEST team in the country at their playstyle. If you shoot as many shots as them, you lose. They aren't necessarily a half-court team like Wisconsin, because they are very efficient in transition, but trying to out-shoot them is not going to work.
In general, their eFG% goes up in the second half of the shot-clock because they look for open shots and generally drain them. They are good at stopping their opponents from getting extra possessions (TO%, defensive rebounding), but bad at gaining extra possessions themselves. Creighton is a team built to out-shoot people, and they are very good at it.
Wichita State on the other hand, works the opposite way. They are an average shooting team, but they try and create extra possessions. They are good at stealing the ball and rebounding on both ends of the court, and can take away quality shots with their shot-blockers. They also have a defense that forces teams into 2PT jumpers, which Creighton is slightly worse at (same FG% as their 3PT jumpers but less points).
Wichita State scores better early in the shot-clock than late. Their eFG% goes up down by 10% in the last half of the shot-clock, largely because they have problems moving in an offensive set and finding good shots (and in some cases, knocking them down). When they shoot in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, they are almost as efficient as Creighton (59% to 61% eFG%).
So the name of the game will be the number of possessions each team gets. Creighton will try and keep the possessions roughly similar by playing smart, no mistake basketball and rebounding the ball well on defense. Wichita State will try and ugly the game up, get steals, and try to control their own fouls and TOs.
The X-Factor to me is Nick Wiggins. He is the only player on the Shockers team that can consistently shoot the 3-ball like Creighton at 47%. If he can erase some of the difference in shooting, the Shockers margin for error increases by a lot. Early has occasionally been that guy as well, shooting 45% from the 3PT line since becoming a starter.
but you will still be a clown.
