Bracketology 2012-2013

[WestOmahaBluejay]

Creighton is now in big-time trouble as far as getting a Kansas City regional. Going into yesterday I thought they could hold off Minnesota and Missouri for that regional, but they just burned off a lot of their margin of error.

If Wichita can find 16-2 with a road win over Creighton somewhere, now they can start thinking about getting the Kansas City regional.

Not to mention that a "bad loss" to a team like Drake will likely prevent the Jays from getting anything higher than a 5 seed, unless they win out and capture the Valley season and tournament titles - the Selection Committee loves to penalize mid-major teams for bad losses - and Wichita State will certainly not be penalized as much for their perceived bad loss to Evansville... my how things have changed since last Monday (last week I figured CU as a 3 or 4 seed, and WSU as a 6 or 7). The Shockers may be the only Valley team ranked in the Top 25 next week (I think CU's loss to Drake might knock them out of the Top 25, regardless of what happens at SIU on Sunday) - so right now my thinking is if WSU stays the course - they would be a 4 or 5 seed, and CU is probably right around a 5 or 6 seed (at this point - lots could change especially with a CU win over WSU in Omaha). Any thoughts on my analysis?

[rjl]

Creighton is now in big-time trouble as far as getting a Kansas City regional. Going into yesterday I thought they could hold off Minnesota and Missouri for that regional, but they just burned off a lot of their margin of error.

If Wichita can find 16-2 with a road win over Creighton somewhere, now they can start thinking about getting the Kansas City regional.

Not to mention that a "bad loss" to a team like Drake will likely prevent the Jays from getting anything higher than a 5 seed, unless they win out and capture the Valley season and tournament titles - the Selection Committee loves to penalize mid-major teams for bad losses - and Wichita State will certainly not be penalized as much for their perceived bad loss to Evansville... my how things have changed since last Monday (last week I figured CU as a 3 or 4 seed, and WSU as a 6 or 7). The Shockers may be the only Valley team ranked in the Top 25 next week (I think CU's loss to Drake might knock them out of the Top 25, regardless of what happens at SIU on Sunday) - so right now my thinking is if WSU stays the course - they would be a 4 or 5 seed, and CU is probably right around a 5 or 6 seed (at this point - lots could changes especially with a CU win over WSU in Omaha). Any thoughts on my analysis?

CU's biggest strength right now might be that they have an All-American on their roster, and not just because he puts up points. That sort of name cache is the same thing that had CU so hyped in the preseason, and it might be what sticks in the minds of the people assembling the brackets.

[TheAsianSensation]

Creighton is now in big-time trouble as far as getting a Kansas City regional. Going into yesterday I thought they could hold off Minnesota and Missouri for that regional, but they just burned off a lot of their margin of error.

If Wichita can find 16-2 with a road win over Creighton somewhere, now they can start thinking about getting the Kansas City regional.

Not to mention that a "bad loss" to a team like Drake will likely prevent the Jays from getting anything higher than a 5 seed, unless they win out and capture the Valley season and tournament titles - the Selection Committee loves to penalize mid-major teams for bad losses - and Wichita State will certainly not be penalized as much for their perceived bad loss to Evansville... my how things have changed since last Monday (last week I figured CU as a 3 or 4 seed, and WSU as a 6 or 7). The Shockers may be the only Valley team ranked in the Top 25 next week (I think CU's loss to Drake might knock them out of the Top 25, regardless of what happens at SIU on Sunday) - so right now my thinking is if WSU stays the course - they would be a 4 or 5 seed, and CU is probably right around a 5 or 6 seed (at this point - lots could changes especially with a CU win over WSU in Omaha). Any thoughts on my analysis?

I did a quick top 16 this morning, and I saw no impending reason to keep Wichita off the 4 line. It's close, but I've got them there for now. Honestly, it might depend more what happens elsewhere than anything WSU can do. If Oregon keeps winning they'll pass WSU. If Miami and NC St can separate with Duke at the top of the ACC, all 3 get by WSU. Butler and Gonzaga can keep winning to stay ahead. If a 3rd team emerges behind Syracuse/Ville in the BEast, they'll pass WSU.

Creighton has plenty of time to rebound though. No more bad losses, hold serve against WSU, and they're back on the 4 line, IMO.

[shocktheheart]

Palm's latest bracket out. WSU a 4 and Creighton a 6. No other Valley team listed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[moshock]

Palm's latest bracket out. WSU a 4 and Creighton a 6. No other Valley team listed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Indiana State is listed as a 12 seed at the top

[shocktheheart]

Palm's latest bracket out. WSU a 4 and Creighton a 6. No other Valley team listed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Indiana State is listed as a 12 seed at the top

Last week's bracket they were...not this week.

[TheAsianSensation]

Update Jan. 28. I trimmed down the lockbox from 54 to 43, and did some shuffling as predictions slowly morph into analysis of what's passed.

The lockbox (43):
Big 10 (5): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan St, Ohio St, Minnesota
BEast (3): Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville
ACC (3): Miami, North Carolina St, Duke
Pac-12 (2): Oregon, Arizona
MWC (2): New Mexico, San Diego St
SEC (2): Florida, Missouri
MVC (2): Wichita St, Creighton
A-10 (1): Butler
Big 12 (1): Kansas
WCC (1): Gonzaga
21 auto-bids

The nearly-lockbox. The teams I'm hedging on, but would comfortably make it today (12):
Wisconsin, Illinois, UNLV, Colorado St, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, VCU, Kansas St, UCLA, Mississippi


This leaves 13 spots on the bubble as of today. (* indicates currently in the field as a projected autobid)

Bubble in: Oklahoma, Belmont*, Baylor, Arizona St, North Carolina, LaSalle
Next 4 in: Iowa St, Villanova, Boise St, Colorado
Last 4 in: Oklahoma St, St Mary's, Middle Tennessee St*, BYU, Kentucky

Last 4 out: Wyoming, Louisiana Tech*, Memphis, Charlotte, Indiana St
Next 4 out: Maryland, Temple, Alabama, Southern Miss*, Massachusetts
Other reasonable candidates: St John's, Rutgers, Washington, St Louis, Iowa, Bucknell*, South Dakota St, Texas A&M

The 1% club: my annual tradition is in late January to post about 15-20 teams that are not reasonable candidates for an at-large bid. Every year, without fail, someone out of this group makes a run to an at-large bid even though it'd be nonsensical to think it right now. So laugh at the list below, but someone here is making a run to an at-large bid:
Northwestern, Air Force*, Florida St, California, Clemson, Virginia, Seton Hall, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, St Joseph's, Arkansas, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, Evansville, New Mexico St, Utah St, Akron, Ohio, Santa Clara
*I'm getting a very, very strong "Bradley 2006" vibe from Air Force. You can't walk 2 steps in the MWC without tripping over a Top 50 RPI opportunity. You can build a resume completely within that conference.

And finally, your breakdown by conference:
BEast 8
B1G 7
Big 12 6
MWC 5
Pac 12 5
ACC 4
SEC 4
WCC 3
A-10 3
MVC 2

If you ask my generic hunches...Big 12 will go from 6 to 5 by March. A-10 will get a 4th by March. Everyone else feels like they're in the ballpark of what I'd expect. Maybe the BEast loses one to a 5th ACC or SEC team. Now, obviously teams get bids, not conferences. I'm just estimating based on the number of wins available in each conference. Not enough to go around in the Big 12. And there's a billion A-10 teams on the bubble; odds are one emerges. I just have no freakin' idea which one.

[TheAsianSensation]

I won't post full brackets here, but initial reactions:

1) I have WSU as the best #5 seed, and with Kansas City hosting a 4 seed in my bracket....WSU plays in KC in my projection.
2) I have Creighton on the 6 line however, and out in San Jose. They're close, though.
3) Indiana St at the least seems to be solidifying into a NIT slot at worst.
4) I actually only have UNI and UE in EIEIO tourneys. No Bradley (and they'll lose enough to fall out of favor anyways). No Illinois St - as of now. Keep winning and maybe. Probably waaaaay too much ground to cover to get into the NIT though. Can't see UNI making the NIT either barring a big run. UE can still realistically get there. No postseason for DU, SIU, and MSU, but you all knew that already.

[shocktheheart]

Lunardi's bracket out. WSU and Creighton both 5 seeds and Indiana St is the seventh team out. Would love this for WSU as they would be in KC and a possible matchup with Turdgeon in the first game.

[TheAsianSensation]

New Lunardi is out, and illustrates a fickle points with the bracket:

WSU stays as a 5 seed, but this time gets sent to San Jose instead of Kansas City.

Why?

Because of changes around them. Wichita gets procedured into a western sub-regional because the other three 5-seeds (a B1G team, ACC team, and BEast team) can't be in that region because their conference mates are the 1, 2 and 3 seeds in the region, and the "top 3 in conference" rule means Wichita is forced to travel west.

The point? Get to the 4 line.