1 bid league???

[cufan_mvcfan]

Two weeks ago this situation seemed impossible, yet right now it seems that Valley may be heading for a nightmare situation. Right now, it is looking like a real possibility that CU will be the only Valley representative if they win in Saint Louis.

CU- at-large is extremely safe and becoming even more safe as a 1st place finish in the regular season is within sight. CU is in barring a collapse of epic proportions.

ISUb- What do they need to do to get in? That loss to Drake may end up being a killer. I feel they 100% NEED to beat the Jays tomorrow to have any shot. The win at WSU is losing steam. the trees do have one giant bright spot on their resume: the win against Miami. How far can that carry them?

WSU- What a mess. Eerily similar to Creighton's 3 game skid about this exact time last year. CU went from a 4-5 seed to close to the bubble. Good thing for WSU, there is time to right the ship. CU did it last year. However, anything better than a 7 or 8 seed is likely out of the question. Name recognition and history will help.

my guess: Creighton finishes 1st in the valley with an at-large locked up. WSU or ISUb finishes second. If WSU finishes second, an at large is likely locked up by the end of the regular season, definitely locked up with a championship berth in St Louis. If ISUb finishes second, your guess is as good as mine. I believe a 2nd place finish with a championship game in Saint Louis still puts them on the bubble. Whoever finishes 3rd needs the auto-bid.

Thoughts?

[Ace Dad]

If WSU loses two more games to the wrong teams and then is beaten in the MVC quarterfinals, they are on the bubble.

If ISU loses one more game to the wrong team and loses in the MVC quarterfinals, they are an after thought.

If CU continues to win and wins the MVC tournament, we may be a one bid league.

However, my comments are all conjecture and I am waiting for the AsianSensation to tell it like it is.

[Deanthonybowdenfan]

2 bid league probably. The Indiana State vs. WSU game in Terra Hout may decide who gets in the big dance. Of course and then in St. Louis. Imagine if WSU and ISUb are on the bubble, if ISUb has beaten WSU both times they played , then theres a good chance they will put ISUb in the dance and take Wichita out. Lot of ball left to play though. But WSU better win their next game.

[TheAsianSensation]

Wichita's still got a couple games' worth of wiggle room. They have a soft next 3 that they really need to go 3-0 in. 1-2 and this is a DEFCON zero situation.

I revisited the resumes this morning, and believe it or not, InSU is closer to WSU than you think. ISU's actually played more top 50 opponents, actually 4 more. WSU is 6-3 against RPI Top 100, ISU 5-4. ISU has the better SoS and the best overall win. And while ISU has some bad, bad losses, WSU is quickly catching up to them in that category. Do remember that WSU's win at Air Force is quickly gaining speed.

My new baseline for Wichita is 5-2 and the semifinals in St Louis. That would involve either winning everything but the two big road games left, or splitting the roadies with allowances for one bad loss. 5-2 here should stave off any bubble worries. Anything less and it starts to matter what other teams around the country do.

ISU's baseline is probably 6-2 and the semifinals in St Louis, with the same caveat - split the big home games, and allowances for one more other loss. I think I had the baseline at 7-1 a couple days ago but to be honest, ISU's non-con schedule is going to be a weapon on the resume this year, moreso than I thought. 2-3 against RPI Top 50 in the non-con will be a positive on the bubble.

[CFA Jay]

#WatchUs make it a 1 bid league!


T


...

[shoxrox]

You look a lot better than Cold, seeing how nearly all of the 20 posts you have on this site, are dedicated to him and the WSU cause.

Obsession.

[bradley_brave1989]

Im still holding out for Shox, CU, and Sycs to win out (obviously not against each other). Come St. Louis, Indiana St get beat by one of the bottom six in the championship...all other bubble teams in other leagues collapse...We get four teams in....

[gtmoBlue]

Two weeks ago this situation seemed impossible, yet right now it seems that Valley may be heading for a nightmare situation. Right now, it is looking like a real possibility that CU will be the only Valley representative if they win in Saint Louis.

CU- at-large is extremely safe and becoming even more safe as a 1st place finish in the regular season is within sight. CU is in barring a collapse of epic proportions.

ISUb- What do they need to do to get in? That loss to Drake may end up being a killer. I feel they 100% NEED to beat the Jays tomorrow to have any shot. The win at WSU is losing steam. the trees do have one giant bright spot on their resume: the win against Miami. How far can that carry them?

WSU- What a mess. Eerily similar to Creighton's 3 game skid about this exact time last year. CU went from a 4-5 seed to close to the bubble. Good thing for WSU, there is time to right the ship. CU did it last year. However, anything better than a 7 or 8 seed is likely out of the question. Name recognition and history will help.

my guess: Creighton finishes 1st in the valley with an at-large locked up. WSU or ISUb finishes second. If WSU finishes second, an at large is likely locked up by the end of the regular season, definitely locked up with a championship berth in St Louis. If ISUb finishes second, your guess is as good as mine. I believe a 2nd place finish with a championship game in Saint Louis still puts them on the bubble. Whoever finishes 3rd needs the auto-bid.

Thoughts?

CU wins MVC.
Trees 2nd in RS.
ISU-R wins the MVC Tourney... they are rounding back into last season form.

[musiccitybulldog]

Timing of the losses could have an impact for WSU. If they win out and win decisively, possibly ok for at large.
Definately some MVC early lower and mid pack teams are coming on and showing to be capable of beating WSU at the current time. Will be an interesting run to the end. This could be one of the most exciting tournaments in St. Louis in some time. But I find myself thinking that every year. Many long time Valley fans know the road to the championship is never a cake walk, as many basketball "experts" predict in the early season.
Will be intetresting in March how the overall media views the Valley, having WSU and Creighton rated through the year has been a major plus.

[iSASO]

I'm thinking three bids, but all as 13 seeds.