Why the sky is falling attitude

[chitown fanatic]

look, as much as i hate to admit it, the shux are the only team in the mVC this year that is and was capable going in of being an at large contender. All you CU people are nuts. CU never had a chance of at large. we only get 2 in if someone knocks off WSU in st louis. case closed.

[Aargh]

For those of you who didn't follow this stuff when the Valley was running anywhere from 6 - 9 in conference RPI - in those years the Valley had already hung up some BCS scalps by this stage of the season and had a top-5 to top-8 conference rating RPI for individual teams is meaningless at this time of the year, but when you apply it to an entire conference, it has more (but still unreliable) meaning.

Right now, the Valley is at #29. There are only 31 conferences. The Valley is right on the heels of the SWAC, which is sitting at #28.

Unless almost every team in the Valley has a huge change and starts winning some games they weren't expected to win, and that is maintained throughout the OOC portion of the schedule, the MVC might end up as a 20-something conference this year.

For a team to be considered for an at-large out of a conference with that kind of a rating, that team would have to about go undefeated in conference play.

Yeah, yeah - it's the team - it's not the conference, but if a team loses to any team in a 20-something conference, it better be a team with no more than 2 or 3 losses in that conference at the end of the season.

I really don't want to be a fan of a school where the conference tournament determines the only team that goes to the NCAA's. Too many unusual things can happen in a tournament.

I'm starting to think it's the strains in athletic department budgets that is dragging the Valley down. Hiring coaches with no D1 experience is always a crap shoot. Sometimes it works out well, but more often it's a disaster. Hanging on to lame duck coaches because a school can't afford to fire them is a disaster.

The schools that can afford to pay competitive salaries for coaches (WSU, CU, BU) are going to find themselves unable to hire coaches worth what they can pay if they are playing in a 20-something RPI conference.

[Aces1982]

I would like to know what teams everyone thought had a chance at NCAA tournament? Me personally, thought three teams had a chance. Creighton, WSU and MSU. I never thought all three would get in and an outside shot of two of them. I still see no reason why two still could not make it.

And for those who say the conference sucks, their team then should have no problems running through the conference schedule.

[cpacmel]

Right now, the Valley is at #29. There are only 31 conferences. The Valley is right on the heels of the SWAC, which is sitting at #28.

First of all, conference RPI doesn't mean anything. It's only there for fans to brag about. The selection committee has said those #'s aren't even looked at or supplied to the selection committee.

But to play along, I keep seeing everyone saying the MVC is at #29. Obviously people are pulling this # from realtimerpi. correct?

Warren Nolan, who I trust, has the MVC at #20: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/conferencerpi.

Not great, but no where near the SWAC either. Besides, it's way too early for talk of RPI.

[Ace Dad]

This calculation shows the Valley at #10.

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=MVC

[Snaggletooth]

This calculation shows the Valley at #10.

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=MVC

That is not RPI, but kenpom own rating system.

He quit doing RPI a few years ago and just does his own system. Which his system is actually more meaningful than RPI, but of course the governing body who choose to use RPI are the same people who won't give us a BCS playoff system.

[Snaggletooth]

First of all, conference RPI doesn't mean anything. It's only there for fans to brag about.

It mean nothing? Your wrong.

RPI is one of the parameters the NCAA choose to rightly or wrongly judge teams on. Whether the NCAA looks at conference RPI or not is irrelevant. Indirectly Conference RPI is an indicator of whether teams in that conference during conference play will will have the ability strengthen their resume in terms of:

Top 25 RPI wins
Top 50 RPI wins
Top 100 RPI wins
AVG RPI Win
AVG RPI Loss

Which the NCAA does look at. And by the way, conference RPI is listed on the NCAA Team page FWIW.

Then there is also secondary perception effects of being or not being in the top 7 or 8.

Warren Nolan, who I trust, has the MVC at #20: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/conferencerpi.

Not great, but no where near the SWAC either. Besides, it's way too early for talk of RPI.

Actually it is not. Team RPI right now are not very meaningful, but overall for the conference there are enough games that the conference RPI does have meaning as or at least hinting at there should be concern~ 1/3 non-conference season is complete.

Of course the conference could go on a hot-streak the remaining 2/3 of the non-conference season and make this thread look funny, but since the MVC struggling with a pretty weak non-conference SOS right now it is not likely this conference stripes will be changed.

[Snaggletooth]

I would like to know what teams everyone thought had a chance at NCAA tournament? Me personally, thought three teams had a chance. Creighton, WSU and MSU. I never thought all three would get in and an outside shot of two of them. I still see no reason why two still could not make it.

A conference with a RPI in the teens won't have enough quality games in conference play for any of the teams to build an at-large resume.

And for those who say the conference sucks, their team then should have no problems running through the conference schedule.

That remain to be seen but generally we know that is not how it works. MVC play is generally been a dog-eat-dog affair. For the conference to get multiple bids you need as many teams as possible to have respectable RPI so you can minimize bad losses.

[cpacmel]

http://www.kentucky.com/2009/02/11/690551/slive-says-ncaa-wont-consider.html

The Southeastern Conference's modest Ratings Percentage Index should not adversely affect individual teams' chances of receiving an NCAA Tournament bid.

That was SEC Commissioner Mike Slive's stated view on a teleconference on Tuesday. And his view counts for a lot, considering he will serve as chairman of the tournament's selection committee this year.

"The committee is not going to consider Conference RPI," Slive said. "It will not be a factor. It will not be part of the nitty-gritty, not on the cheat sheet and not available in the room."

And Snaggletooth, I think most people know at the non-BCS level's resume's are built in non-conference play, not during conference play.

And it's very very earlier to talk about this stuff. Heck some teams have only played 1 or 2 games.

[TylerDurden]

This is happening because most of the schools in the MVC have decided getting home cupcake wins to make budget is more important than earning bids to the NCAA Tournament, where the payout is millions over the payout schedule.

When the best games on your schedule are the MVC/MWC challenge and Bracketbusters (and the BB return) -- games that are scheduled for you -- you have to know you aren't getting it done.

In this league, you can't be in it for yourself...but sadly, it's clear that most of the schools are.