Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities - Feb 14 edition

[DoubleJayAlum]

A raw list of opponent's RPI also neglects the big boost you get for road games. For example, WSU's wins at #37 VCU and #65 Air Force were both true road games and juice the SoS with rocket fuel.

I think you've been sniffing rocket fuel.

A road victory does not improve SOS. SOS is static - it just measures who you've played, not where. It is RPI that gets the extra boost from road wins, not SOS.

[Realhoops]

The real question is whether anyone here has access to "The RPI Report" and its nonconference strength of schedule rankings. There are other sites besides ESPN that are pretty substantially different and have CU's SOS as better than WSU's. But all that really matters is the one that is actually used.

[MVCfans]

Does anyone have access the The RPI Report non-conference SOS? That is the one used by the MVC to determine the tie breaker. I went to their site which is pretty archaic if you asked me and it would appear you need a subscription to get the info I wanted.

As far as straight RPI, here are the top MVC teams according to The RPI Report:

40. Temple 16 7 .5784 46 .5953
41. Wichita St. 20 5 .5210 121 .5945
42. Oregon 19 5 .5307 103 .5936
43. Creighton 20 5 .5256 109 .5934
44. Notre Dame 19 5 .5440 94 .5934
45. Mississippi 18 5 .5249 111 .5924
46. Indiana St. 15 8 .5752 50 .5923

[cpacmel]

A raw list of opponent's RPI also neglects the big boost you get for road games. For example, WSU's wins at #37 VCU and #65 Air Force were both true road games and juice the SoS with rocket fuel.

I think you've been sniffing rocket fuel.

A road victory does not improve SOS. SOS is static - it just measures who you've played, not where. It is RPI that gets the extra boost from road wins, not SOS.

DoubleJayAlum is right about that. There is no boost in SOS based on location of where the game is played.

[GoShockers89]

A raw list of opponent's RPI also neglects the big boost you get for road games. For example, WSU's wins at #37 VCU and #65 Air Force were both true road games and juice the SoS with rocket fuel.

I think you've been sniffing rocket fuel.

A road victory does not improve SOS. SOS is static - it just measures who you've played, not where. It is RPI that gets the extra boost from road wins, not SOS.

You're right. I was grasping at straws trying to explain why Creighton's non-con SoS is so piss poor, but I guess there really are no excuses: their opponents have simply been that terrible.

[Ricardo del Rio]

There has been an adjustment in IN State's RPI.

[jegbomb52]

how is UNI's SOS overall better than InState yet their non-con SOS worse than InState's? Once the non con is over isn't it all equal?

[Kyle]

It won't be equal until we've played the full conference slate.

[MVCfans]

Thanks to hacksaw - just sent me the the newest revision and I will post first thing in the morning. With the win tonight, WSU has a 73% chance of earning the 1 seed based on 50/50 coin flip of each game. Weighted, they have a 63% probability.

[pafan]

Thanks to hacksaw - just sent me the the newest revision and I will post first thing in the morning. With the win tonight, WSU has a 73% chance of earning the 1 seed based on 50/50 coin flip of each game. Weighted, they have a 63% probability.

The only way I see CU winning is that CU wins out, and Wichita loses @CU and drops either home vs. EVAN or @INST.

Am I missing a bunch of CU win scenarios?