Valley Parity: 5 Good Teams or 5 OK Teams?

[GarH]

Ace Dad, I think your assessment is dead on. Unfortunately the selection committee probably won't. I think the Valley will get at most 2 teams in unless someone other than WSU or Creighton wins the Valley Tournament and even then more than 2 is probably a long shot.

[TheAsianSensation]

The problem is Illinois St is playing like an NCAA team when they started 0-6, and Missouri St screwed things up in their non-con.

Right now I feel good about CU and WSU's chances. And if you add Indiana St's chances to get an at large bid to the individual chances that IlSU or UNI have of binking Arch Madness...I feel like we're a 2-1 favorite to get 3 bids. Each of the 3 teams above have less than a 50% chance individually of pulling it off, but add them all together....I think we're a favorite for 3 bids.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I think Creighton, WSU, UNI, and Illinois State could all win a game in the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately if either Creighton or WSU wins the Valley tournament they will be the only teams to prove it.

WSU and Creighton are locks. Anyone else needs to win the Valley tournament.

[shockem]

I have a feeling either UNI, INSU or IlSU wins the tourney. Creighton is not that good right now and WSU never plays well in the Lou.

[Kyle]

I have a feeling either UNI, INSU or IlSU wins the tourney. Creighton is not that good right now and WSU never plays well in the Lou.

I agree.

CU doesn't have the depth to win three games in three days, and despite the W yesterday, I'm not convinced WSU is back to playing great basketball.

[ACECARD]

I think Creighton, WSU, UNI, and Illinois State could all win a game in the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately if either Creighton or WSU wins the Valley tournament they will be the only teams to prove it.

WSU and Creighton are locks. Anyone else needs to win the Valley tournament.

+1

[cufan_mvcfan]

IMO, valley teams need to do two things to make some noise in march:

1) do enough in the non-con and 1st half of valley play to secure/ be in the mix for an at large-birth. WSU and CU are the only two teams that did this. This is the only way a valley team can get a manageable seed.

2) Every team has their rough stretches, however for a valley team it needs to come in the middle or "mid-late" portion of the conference schedule. That period has now passed. No valley team can completely stumble down the stretch and get a decent seed in the tourney. most will not make it at all. This also gives the team momentum and confidence going into the Dance, which is huge.

Obviously, any team can get hot in the Lou and win it. However, a non at large valley team winning the Lou will almost always get a 12-14 seed. Historically, it is a death sentence (with a few exceptions).

[shockem]

12 is actually not a bad seed. You get matched up with middle tier bcs teams typically.

[saluki762]

I am going to go on a limb and give several of you an opportunity to tell me to put down the Valley Kool-Aid. Typically, we assume that parity means that the top 1-7 teams are average because no team can pull away. I understand how that happens. However, after watching all the teams this year, my "eye test" tells me that we have some pretty good teams beating up on each other and I believe that 5 of our teams could win a 1st round NCAA game.

Am I drinking too much Valley kool aid?

I think that there are 5 teams that could win a first round game. There is not one team I would put money on in a straight up bet however. Would not be shocked with 2 Sweet 16 teams, wouldn't be shocked with any Valley team that makes the tourney getting blown out and embarrassed on national television.

So I am going to go with 5 OK teams.