Arch Madness seeding probabilities - updated Feb 18

[shocktheheart]

WSU's magic # is 2. Any combination of WSU wins or Creighton losses give WSU at least a share of the Valley title and the #1 seed in St. Lou

Not exactly. If Creighton lost 2 but beat WSU- both ISU and UNI could finish ahead of the Shox and Jays if ISU wins tonight.

You are correct...both UNI and ISU would have to go 3-0 and WSU 1-2 to finish the year. WSU would have split with both and with the SOS both UNI and ISU would have the tie breaker.

[Ali]

I think a 4 way tie for first place is even possible.

[Hacksaw]

I think a 4 way tie for first place is even possible.

Definitely a possibility.

4 way tie at 11 wins = 192 possibilities (0.59% mathematical chance)
Would result in seeds: 1-In St (5 RR wins), 2- CU (3 RR wins), 3- UNI (2 RR wins), 4- WSU (2 RR wins)

4 way tie at 12 wins = 96 possibilites (0.29% mathematical chance)
Would result in seeds: 1-In St (5 RR wins), 2- WSU@CU winner (3 RR wins), 3- UNI (2 RR wins), 4- WSU@CU loser (2 RR wins)

[DoubleJayAlum]

Hacksaw,

I noticed you are using ESPN's noncon SOS figures. Any idea how those compare with realtimeRPIs numbers? I've done some checking on the web and find it interesting that while RPIs are pretty consistent from one site to another, noncon RPIs seem to vary greatly. Thoughts?

[Hacksaw]

Hacksaw,

I noticed you are using ESPN's noncon SOS figures. Any idea how those compare with realtimeRPIs numbers? I've done some checking on the web and find it interesting that while RPIs are pretty consistent from one site to another, noncon RPIs seem to vary greatly. Thoughts?

There is definitely some variance in non-con RPI numbers from site to site. For the analysis sake, I ignore the non-con RPI numbers, as they take into account the outcome of the game, whereas the SOS numbers do not.

CBS has the same non-con SOS order as ESPN, but with CU just ahead of Drake.

Kenpom has non-con SOS figures as well, they fall like this currently: UNI 43, In St 59, Drake 112, WSU 124, MSU 141, CU 206, Il St 236, UE 258, SIU 274, & BU 340.

I'm not sure where to find realtimeRPI's numbers at. I know that the RPI Report (used by the MVC) is subscription based, so I do not have access to that, but I'm fairly certain that last year the Weekly MVC Men's Basketball Notebook (released on the MVC website every Monday) that was published the last Monday of the season (right after the BB games) had a preview of the RPI Report's non-conf SOS numbers. I will definitely update with those numbers if the same thing happens this year.

[Heinro]

I think a 4 way tie for first place is even possible.

Definitely a possibility.

4 way tie at 11 wins = 192 possibilities (0.59% mathematical chance)
Would result in seeds: 1-In St (5 RR wins), 2- CU (3 RR wins), 3- UNI (2 RR wins), 4- WSU (2 RR wins)

4 way tie at 12 wins = 96 possibilites (0.29% mathematical chance)
Would result in seeds: 1-In St (5 RR wins), 2- WSU@CU winner (3 RR wins), 3- UNI (2 RR wins), 4- WSU@CU loser (2 RR wins)

What a disaster this would be as a conference. MVC would likely go from 3 bids at the beginning of February to getting the tourney champ only.

[Heinro]

Anyone know what would need to happen for this order:

1. WSU
2. CU
3. ISUb
4. UNI
5. UE
6. ISUr

As a Shocker, I think this is best case scenario.

[MVCfans]

Hacksaw just provided updated Arch Madness seeding probabilities. With one win, the Shockers will be the #1 seed in STL.

link: www.mvcfans.com

[Red]

Hacksaw,

I noticed you are using ESPN's noncon SOS figures. Any idea how those compare with realtimeRPIs numbers? I've done some checking on the web and find it interesting that while RPIs are pretty consistent from one site to another, noncon RPIs seem to vary greatly. Thoughts?

Looks like this is the official word. wp/2013/02/20/from-the-mvc-office-official-rpi-and-non-conference-strength-of-schedule/

Ind St > UNI > WSU > CU > DU > UE > SIU > IlST > MSU > BU

[jegbomb52]

I don't believe that is true. Can't Wichita win against Eville and Creighton beat Bradley and Creighton still have an opportunity to get the one seed with a home victory over the shox?

Evansville would be one win, but wouldn't clinch it. I think you can actually use Magic numbers in this scenario. The magic number for WSU would be 2.