Bracketology 2012-2013

[TheAsianSensation]

Polls are 100% irrelevant to the selection process.

We've seen ranked teams miss the tournament before, and someday we will again.

[MVCfans]

According to Lunardi, these would be the teams to root against.

Last Four In
Temple
Kentucky
Villanova
Ole Miss

First Four Out
Baylor
Arizona State
Indiana State
Southern Miss

Next Four Out
St. John's
Boise State
Maryland
Alabama

[TheAsianSensation]

The bubble feels a bit smaller than usual this year. There's no real depth to the teams that can make a run from the outside.

This is probably going to be a year when all of the bracketologists probably agree on about 66 of the teams unanimously and the final couple spots will be argued. The consideration board will be getting a lot smaller.

Oh by the way, just wait to see what seeds the Big 10's 7 teams get. The committee usually goes all in in these types of situations. I might put Minnesota at a 7 as the worst seed of the bunch.

[bradley_brave1989]

How far up did Tennessee climb with last nights win? That makes six in a row with a favorable back end @UGA, @Aub, Mizzou

[TheAsianSensation]

I don't have them all the way back to the cutline but they lopped off at least a half-dozen spots on the S-Curve. More or less even with Indiana St and Ole Miss and the like.

There's always a hard charging team from the outside this time of year.

On the other end, I'm finally giving up. Gonzaga to the 1 line, for now.

[MSUDuo]

If the RPI isn't the end all, be all, why isn't a team like Washington getting a look? Virginia, Iowa and the likes I see on the bubble but no mention of Washington or Arkansas or Stanford or Massachusetts.

They all have bad losses. All bubble teams do. Washington and Mass have 7 top100 wins but UVA obviously has the better record against the top100 (6-2)

My 1, 2, and 3 seeds for now

Indiana, Duke, Miami, Gonzaga
Florida, Michigan, KU, Michigan State
Louisville, Arizona, Georgetown, New Mexico

Someone tell me why New Mexico shouldn't be a #1 or #2 seed? They're running away with the strongest rated conference, RPI of 3, only 4 losses, and lay claim to the most top100 wins.

[CaseyGarrisonforPrez]

If the RPI isn't the end all, be all, why isn't a team like Washington getting a look? Virginia, Iowa and the likes I see on the bubble but no mention of Washington or Arkansas or Stanford or Massachusetts.

They all have bad losses. All bubble teams do. Washington and Mass have 7 top100 wins but UVA obviously has the better record against the top100 (6-2)

My 1, 2, and 3 seeds for now

Indiana, Duke, Miami, Gonzaga
Florida, Michigan, KU, Michigan State
Louisville, Arizona, Georgetown, New Mexico

Someone tell me why New Mexico shouldn't be a #1 or #2 seed? They're running away with the strongest rated conference, RPI of 3, only 4 losses, and lay claim to the most top100 wins.

New Mexico simply does not pass the eye test. What is their best win...against Vegas? And they split with them at that. They have two nice wins over Colorado State who has a ridiculously inflated RPI of 17 in a league that is full of ridiculous RPI teams. Outside of their leagu they beat Davidson in ABQ and beat UCONN in the Virgin Islands. I can think of at least 8 teams with a more deserving resume. At least.

[TheAsianSensation]

New Mexico is a weird team to evaluate to me. It's tough to historically put this year's MWC into perspective.

I think one problem will be the high-quality win issue. Their best wins range from N-UConn, @Cinci, a sweep of CSU, UNLV, et al. All tourney teams, all good wins - against teams that will eventually be 5-8 seeds. Compare to Gonzaga, whose wins of @OSU, N-Kansas St are slightly better than New Mexico's range. Georgetown has Syracuse and Louisville wins in their pocket, their range of big wins are slightly better than UNM's. In fact, UNM has those 2 BEast wins but the top 3 contenders from that conference can match that. Arizona has Florida and N-Miami wins in its pocket. Miami has Duke and Michigan St in its pocket. So on and so forth.

Now, we can definitely argue that UNM doesn't have as many chances as the big boys do to get the high-end wins. But the committee has shown the tendency to give the best seeds overall to the teams with the most high end wins.

And besides, it's not like a 3 seed is a bad seed. If they go to a 4 I would riot. I actually think the top 2 lines are loaded this year compared to most years. I think New Mexico would be a 2 seed with this resume maybe 2 out of 3 years. Just not this one.



Addressing the bubble teams you listed:

Washington - they've got a bunch of terrible losses like Virginia does. There's blood everywhere. But Virginia's wins dwarf Washington's wins.
Arkansas are home court heroes. They have a 1-9 R/N record. The committee will frown upon these shenenigans.
Stanford's red flag is 2-9 against RPI Top 50. In the past couple years, you could overcome that. This year the bubble is actually a bit stronger.
UMass just needs more high-end wins.
I don't think Iowa will be for long in the bubble talk.

[TheAsianSensation]

Also, the MWC's strength this year is depth in the middle and bottom. If the bottom half there had typical years (for bottom teams in the MWC), they'd probably be down below the BEast and Big 12 for sure, to #4 overall in CRPI, probably the ACC, and maybe the Pac 12 too (but definitely ahead of whatever the hell is going on in the SEC).

[TheAsianSensation]

So Indiana St spent the past month burning down its house, and tonight apparently decided to rent a bulldozer and run over the rubble for no good reason.

With UNI starting to go south and The Drake approaching .500, the race to the EIEIOs is just getting more complicated. Not everyone who wants to go may get to go.